Showing posts with label Wood Memorial. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Wood Memorial. Show all posts

  • Let the ‘Real’ Derby Preps Begin

    POSTED Apr 5, 2014 By Derek Simon
    According to KentuckyDerby.com, there have been 20 “prep” races for the Kentucky Derby so far this year. That’s 29 events in which points have been awarded to Kentucky Derby hopefuls — points that will ultimately determine who’s in and who’s out of America’s greatest horse race.

    I say nay.

    I say that, in truth, there has been but one Kentucky Derby prep (last weekend’s Florida Derby) run this year — with four more remaining (Blue Grass Stakes, Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial and Arkansas Derby) including two this weekend (the SA Derby and Wood).

    No offense to the majestic thoroughbreds that competed in this year’s Sham, LeComte, Smarty Jones or El Camino Real Derby, but those races have produced exactly three Kentucky Derby champions since the death of Andrew Johnson (he was the 17th president, kids) — and not one of them actually won the “prep” in question:

    Giacomo (3rd in 2005 Sham)
    War Emblem (5th in 2002 LeComte)
    Charismatic (2nd in 1999 El Camino Real Derby)

    Meanwhile, Saturday’s Wood Memorial and Santa Anita Derby have produced a total of 36 Kentucky Derby winners. So let’s take a look at this weekend’s prestigious preps, starting with the Wood Memorial:

    WOOD MEMORIAL
    10th Aqueduct (4/5/14)
    1-1/8 miles (dirt)

    1-KID CRUZ
    Recent podcast guest Brian Zipse of Horse Racing Nation loves this horse and I can see why. The son of Lemon Drop Kid comes from the clouds and could get the perfect setup with the likes of Noble Moon, Kristo, Schivarelli, Uncle Sigh and Social Inclusion in this field. What’s more, his speed and pace figures are competitive. In his last start (the Private Terms at Laurel), in which he rallied from 18 lengths back at the first call, Kid Cruz earned a 98 Brisnet speed figure (today’s par is a 104) and a -7 late speed ration (LSR).
    Fair Odds: 12-1

    2-WICKED STRONG
    His subpar speed rating in the Remsen can be excused due to the slug-slow pace in that affair, but there is absolutely no excuse for his subsequent impression of a tortoise in both the Holy Bull and an optional claiming event.
    Fair Odds: 30-1

    3-NOBLE MOON
    This guy appears to be moving in the right direction, but he needs a major performance boost to compete with the likes of these. The 91-day layoff doesn’t inspire confidence either… although the last two workouts — both at a mile — are very interesting indeed.
    Fair Odds: 12-1

    4-HARPOON
    I suspect this son of Tapit was entered solely because the connections expect — or are hoping for — a pace meltdown. Personally, I think Harpoon’s subpar LSRs — a -12 in the Gotham and -10 in the Sam F. Davis — make this hope a forlorn one.
    Fair Odds: 15-1

    5-LOS BORRACHOS
    His latest LSR (-2) was great… but it was earned in a race that featured an 84 Brisnet speed figure (BSF).
    Fair Odds: 30-1

    6-KRISTO
    After a decent try in the Grade III Sham, this colt proved unratable in the San Felipe and would up getting beat by 13 ½ lengths. The presence of Martin Garcia in the saddle today makes me think the game plan will be to stick much closer to the pace this time.
    Fair Odds: 10-1

    7-SCHIVARELLI
    Son of the speedy Montbrook (6.3 AWD of progeny) is bred to be a sprinter, but he’s very intriguing in this spot. Not only does he look like the quickest of the quick, but his last race (granted, it was a lowly optional claiming affair) wasn’t half-bad. Schivarelli earned a 98 BSF while recording a positive pace profile in a dominant win on Feb. 21. Even a repeat of that effort makes him interesting.
    Fair Odds: 8-1

    8-SAMRAAT
    Love the way this colt has progressed. His speed figures are solid, if not spectacular (he’s earned a 99 BSF in each of his last three races), and his overall LSRs are second only to Effinex (who is much slower). Forget the state-bred nonsense — those races were last year; this year, the son of Noble Causeway has been nothing but money.
    Fair Odds: 2-1

    9-EFFINEX
    To paraphrase those commercials, trainer David J. Smith doesn’t win often, but when he does… well, he makes ‘em count. I suspect Effinex is too slow to compete against the likes of these, but the colt did improve greatly in his first start under Smith.
    Fair Odds: 30-1

    10-UNCLE SIGH
    He’s game as they come, with solid overall speed and pace figures. Price is key.
    Fair Odds: 6-1

    11-SOCIAL INCLUSION
    So, here’s the deal: Yes, this colt is talented, but, as I’ve often said, finding a talented horse is not what betting the races is all about — or even partially about. If you’re seeking the most talented contender in a race, just check out the tote board.

    Social Inclusion is likely to be favored today; on that, most racing fans agree. And that favoritism will be based on one race — a wire-to-wire score in an allowance race featuring an absurdly slow pace (0 early speed ration) over a notoriously speed-favoring track (Gulfstream Park) on March 12.

    Oh, and did I forget? Social Inclusion broke from post 1 that day.

    Today, he starts from the 11-hole, faces several other prominent speedsters and meets Grade I competition for the first time in his career.

    Anybody taking 2-1 on his chances is either crazy or incredibly brave… I’ll make a case for straitjackets.
    Fair Odds: 9-2

    SANTA ANITA DERBY
    8th Santa Anita Park (4/5/14)
    1-1/8 miles (dirt)

    1-RPRETTYBOYFLOYD
    Son of Bluegrass Cat with the low-percentage connections is still a maiden, although his numbers are OK (not good, just OK).
    Fair Odds: 20-1

    2-FRIENDSWITH K MILL
    Do you want to know the story about how this colt got his name? Yeah, neither do I. I just know it’s awful. That said, this Doug O’Neil trainee put in a decent run last time while vastly improving his previous numbers on dirt.
    Fair Odds: 15-1

    3-HOPPERTUNITY
    Great last race (95 BSF, -5 LSR) and no knocks to speak of.
    Fair Odds: 5-2

    4-BIG TIRE          
    Just broke his maiden (in start number six) and will need to improve greatly to even get a sniff against this group.
    Fair Odds: 20-1

    5-CALIFORNIA CHROME
    His combination of overall speed and quickness looks formidable. Interestingly, although California Chrome’s sire (Lucky Pulpit) gets 80 percent of his wins in races under a mile, his progeny also show great improvement, from a speed figure standpoint, in routes. Art Sherman trainee is a legitimate favorite.
    Fair Odds: 7-5

    6-CANDY BOY
    Still like this guy as a Kentucky Derby candidate, but the reality is he will need to improve several lengths to visit the winner’s circle today. Can he do it? Of course. Will he do it? That’s what fair odds are for.
    Fair Odds: 3-1

    7-SCHOOLOFHARDROCKS
    Looked short in the San Felipe, but exactly how good is the son of Rock Hard Ten? I guess we’ll find out.
    Fair Odds: 10-1

    8-DUBLIN UP
    Another maiden trying winners, except this guy is from connections familiar to the Triple Crown trail — Donegal Racing. However, that doesn’t make the Peter Miller trainee any faster
    Fair Odds: 20-1

    (Click on image to enlarge)

  • Saturday, April 6, previews, picks, and jokes

    POSTED Apr 5, 2013 By Unknown
    If it's possible for American Thoroughbred racing to pack this much action into a weekend then I might as well do my part and pack as much as I can into this blog.

     If you're wondering why I'm blogging at 1 a.m. EDT after a full day at Keeneland it's because I'm still coming down from the high of live racing returning to Lexington and a solid day of wagering that ended with a "lone 'A'" horse streaking home at 9-to-1 and the TwinSpires.com Players Pool turning a profit on the Rainbow^6. Others probably had a better ROI for the bet, but I doubt anyone generated ~$65,000 in gross profit on a bet that "only" paid $4,234.01 for a dime.

     This game can knock you down in a hurry, though, so rather than rest on my laurels (or rest at all), I've been busy preparing for Ashland Stakes day at Keeneland (ABC grid appears at the bottom of this post)--a great card of ten races that will conclude just in time to catch the Wood Memorial Stakes at Aqueduct and the Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Park as part of the Derby Championship Series presented by TwinSpires.com. For FREE Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances of the DCS races, click here.

     Not that racing does this anymore, but if there were a double linking the two prep races this weekend and the two next weekend (the Wood-SA Derby & the Blue Grass-Arkansas Derby, respectively), then I think most people would assume that this week's double would pay less.

     Even if you don't love Verrazano and/or Flashback, the alternatives in both races this week are logical whereas the Blue Grass is likely to attract a full gate of evenly matched horses with the added Polytrack equalizer.

     But are this weekend's preps that much of a gimme? Of the two favorites I prefer Verrazano, but if things go according to my plan I won't even mind if "the favorite obliges" as John G. Dooley is fond of saying.

     In the Wood, Go Get the Basil and Freedom Child will be big prices and either seems capable of at least getting a sliver slice of something. I'd rather try to beat the likes of Vyjack underneath than try to beat Verrazano on top.

     I plan a similar approach in Santa Anita Derby where any of the Bafferts make sense, and I'm sick of hearing about Tiz A Minister who seemed to have every chance in the San Felipse and couldn't get the job done. Summer Exclusive and Storm Fighter both ran nice races to break their maiden last out, but this is a HUGE step in class for both of them. The price needs to be right here, but it should be.

     In the give credit where it's due department, kudos to Joel Cunningham who has had Revolutionary on top of his Derby watch list for quite some time, and he looked good gutting out a win in the Louisiana Derby. Let's see what Joel thinks of this weekend's races.

     Speaking of what people have to say, Jill Byrne has her usual great insight into each prep this weekend.

      
    As for my thoughts on this weekend's races, my biggest play will be on Air Support in race 4 at Keeneland, a graded stakes-caliber field where the two morning line choices--Turralure and Al Khali--are plays against for me in all multi-race wagers.

     The ABC grid below is subject to change with scratches forthcoming, but the other horse I'm really hoping the morning line holds up on is #7 Gathering in race 8. Good luck!

      

  • The weekend preview w/ TCI & Toga Tout

    POSTED Apr 6, 2012 By Unknown
    One of the hardest things to do while watching horse racing live is to keep track of all the action via satellite. This is rarely an issue on days such as the Kentucky Derby or Breeders' Cup, but it's often a big deal the first two weekends of Keeneland each year when Triple Crown/Breeders' Cup prep races abound coast to coast.

    The Paddock Bar has become a mission control of sorts for me and my friends, as we try to monitor all the action happening near and far with a combination of TVs, mobile devices, Twitter, and moxie.

    The action will no doubt be fast and furious come late Saturday afternoon when stakes commence not only in Lexington for the $500,000 Ashland Stakes but also from New York to Chicago to Southern California with major Derby prep races scheduled for 5:15 p.m. EDT (Wood Memorial), 5:30 (Santa Anita Derby), and 6:46 (Illinois Derby).

    I heartily recommend not missing our weekly dose of Triple Crown Insider and Toga Tout so that we all can be prepared to crush these races when they come up.



    As for me, I expect my strategy to vary among each of the prep races.

    In the Wood, I'm zeroing in on My Adonis as a top selection with plans to also play around with The Lumber Guy. I'll play the race to beat at least one of Alpha and Gemologist in the top three with neither in the top slot in the all-stakes Pick 4 unless I beat favorites such as Broadway's Alibi or Caleb's Posse elsewhere.

    I'm fond of saying "boxes are for shoes" when people tell me they played a race by boxing horses in an exacta or trifecta, but I won't be able to resist such a play in the Illinois Derby since Currency Swap is an extremely vulnerable morning line favorite, and Ring It Up, Z Rockstar, Our Entourage, Morgan's Guerrilla, and Explain all look capable at double digit odds (except Our Entourage, but I can't let him beat me with another price even at underlaid win odds because I've been on him for awhile now).

    I see the Santa Anita Derby as the most likely of the three races to chalk out. Creative Cause is a worthy favorite and most likely winner, but I'll be pulling for I'll Have Another in the top spot, and I haven't given up on Midnight Transfer enough not to use him in some capacity either. I hope Paynter sucks money but wish he were at Hawthorne since he'd be the favorite there and still too slow.

    Of course, I can't wait until Saturday to get down--not with Keeneland opening on Friday. Derek Simon has some good info on the Keeneland meeting in his most recent blog post (at bottom), and I've included my selections for each of the ten races below.


    I'll rock an "all 'A'" Pick 5 for sure late and not sure what I'll do early since I'm pretty deep in most races. Maybe some spot plays or maybe scratches will help get the Pick 4s down to manageable levels. Either way, should be fun.