Showing posts with label rainbow 6. Show all posts
Showing posts with label rainbow 6. Show all posts

  • Saturday, April 6, previews, picks, and jokes

    POSTED Apr 5, 2013 By Unknown
    If it's possible for American Thoroughbred racing to pack this much action into a weekend then I might as well do my part and pack as much as I can into this blog.

     If you're wondering why I'm blogging at 1 a.m. EDT after a full day at Keeneland it's because I'm still coming down from the high of live racing returning to Lexington and a solid day of wagering that ended with a "lone 'A'" horse streaking home at 9-to-1 and the TwinSpires.com Players Pool turning a profit on the Rainbow^6. Others probably had a better ROI for the bet, but I doubt anyone generated ~$65,000 in gross profit on a bet that "only" paid $4,234.01 for a dime.

     This game can knock you down in a hurry, though, so rather than rest on my laurels (or rest at all), I've been busy preparing for Ashland Stakes day at Keeneland (ABC grid appears at the bottom of this post)--a great card of ten races that will conclude just in time to catch the Wood Memorial Stakes at Aqueduct and the Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Park as part of the Derby Championship Series presented by TwinSpires.com. For FREE Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances of the DCS races, click here.

     Not that racing does this anymore, but if there were a double linking the two prep races this weekend and the two next weekend (the Wood-SA Derby & the Blue Grass-Arkansas Derby, respectively), then I think most people would assume that this week's double would pay less.

     Even if you don't love Verrazano and/or Flashback, the alternatives in both races this week are logical whereas the Blue Grass is likely to attract a full gate of evenly matched horses with the added Polytrack equalizer.

     But are this weekend's preps that much of a gimme? Of the two favorites I prefer Verrazano, but if things go according to my plan I won't even mind if "the favorite obliges" as John G. Dooley is fond of saying.

     In the Wood, Go Get the Basil and Freedom Child will be big prices and either seems capable of at least getting a sliver slice of something. I'd rather try to beat the likes of Vyjack underneath than try to beat Verrazano on top.

     I plan a similar approach in Santa Anita Derby where any of the Bafferts make sense, and I'm sick of hearing about Tiz A Minister who seemed to have every chance in the San Felipse and couldn't get the job done. Summer Exclusive and Storm Fighter both ran nice races to break their maiden last out, but this is a HUGE step in class for both of them. The price needs to be right here, but it should be.

     In the give credit where it's due department, kudos to Joel Cunningham who has had Revolutionary on top of his Derby watch list for quite some time, and he looked good gutting out a win in the Louisiana Derby. Let's see what Joel thinks of this weekend's races.

     Speaking of what people have to say, Jill Byrne has her usual great insight into each prep this weekend.

      
    As for my thoughts on this weekend's races, my biggest play will be on Air Support in race 4 at Keeneland, a graded stakes-caliber field where the two morning line choices--Turralure and Al Khali--are plays against for me in all multi-race wagers.

     The ABC grid below is subject to change with scratches forthcoming, but the other horse I'm really hoping the morning line holds up on is #7 Gathering in race 8. Good luck!

      

  • Rosario’s ‘Redemption’ and Picks for the Rainbow Six

    POSTED Apr 4, 2013 By Derek Simon
    Poor Joel Rosario.

    The guy just can’t seem to buy a break. When Joe Flacco, who, like Rosario, is 28 years old (Flacco was born on Jan. 16, 1985; Rosario was born two days earlier), led the Baltimore Ravens to victory in Super Bowl XLVII, he was named the game’s MVP and was later rewarded with a $120.6 million contract, making him the highest-paid player in NFL history.

    He even got to go to Disney World.   

    Yet, when Rosario won the Super Bowl of horseracing (at least in terms of purse value) — the $10 million Dubai World Cup — aboard Animal Kingdom, all he got was a backhanded compliment/slap in the face by Barry Irwin, head of the syndicate that currently owns the 2011 Derby champ.

    “And credit to the jock… as boneheaded a ride as he gave him last time, he gave him a brilliant ride this time,” Irwin said.

    Showing more grace, Animal Kingdom’s trainer H. Graham Motion spoke only of Rosario’s winning effort in the World Cup.

    “We sat and talked for about 10 minutes after they ran the UAE Derby and I said he’s got to break well and he can’t get too far out of it,” the veteran conditioner said. “[Rosario] just had him in the perfect sport. I mean, when you watch this race run — that’s why you’ve got to be here — he was right there. And I couldn’t believe it when he turned for home and he was going so nicely. It reminded me of the [Kentucky] Derby, actually.”

     Of course, what’s funny to me is that all those — including Irwin — squawking about Rosario’s “blunder” in the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap on Feb. 9, when, according to critics, he moved too soon to engage Salto for the lead, seem to have no trouble with the fact that Animal Kingdom was closer to the pace in the World Cup than he was in the Turf Cup — or any other race in his career, save his maiden-breaker as a juvenile.

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    The fact is Animal Kingdom has gained ground and/or position from the first call to the second call in nine of his 11 lifetime races. In fact, when he won the Kentucky Derby, the son of Leroidesanimaux passed a half-dozen rivals between those two calls.

     Moving on the turn is what Animal Kingdom does best. It defines him… just like Zenyatta was defined by her thrilling stretch runs and Ruffian was defined by her brilliant early speed.

    Rosario’s mistake in the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap, if any, was not being in better position early — something that sharp readers will notice Motion addressed prior to the World Cup.

    Look, it’s no mystery why the trainer took his jockey aside after the UAE Derby, which was run nearly four hours before the world’s richest horse race. It’s because, in the UAE Derby, the best horse in the race (and I say “best” without the slightest compunction to qualify it), Secret Number, was compromised by a very slow pace set by the eventual winner, Lines of Battle.

    Motion clearly understood that, as talented as Animal Kingdom is, he couldn’t afford to dawdle early like he did in the Turf Handicap or in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. The Tapeta surface at Meydan, which due to its deep and tiring nature tends to favor European turf horses, simply wouldn’t allow it. (I’m convinced this is why Royal Delta went straight to the front as well; her problem was likely the distance coupled with the aforementioned energy-sapping nature of the track.)

     Rosario was in a no-win situation at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 9. Consider: The +14 early speed ration (ESR) that Salto recorded that day (while Animal Kingdom bided his time in fifth) was approximately 14 lengths slower than the slowest pace in the history of the Kentucky Derby. Yes, I know we’re talking about different surfaces (turf vs. dirt), but 14 lengths?

     The fact is Rosario deserved better than being called a “bonehead.” At the very least, Irwin should send him to Disney World.

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    Note: For an explanation of speed rations, please click HERE.

    Mandatory Payoff in the Rainbow Six at Gulfstream Park

    If no single ticket includes the winners of today’s Rainbow Six sequence, experts estimate that tomorrow’s pool, which must be paid out as Friday is the last day of the meet, could be in the $5 to $8 million range.

    To help players out, I have produced my Win Factor Report for the day’s races. Click HERE to get your free copy.

    FREE Weekend Handicapping Reports & Analysis

    Free Win Factor Reports for all of Saturday’s races at Aqueduct and Santa Anita Park:

     AQU040613WFR
    SA040613WFR

     Free Pace Profile Reports for selected Saturday races:

     SAOaks2013  
    SADerby2013  
    WoodMemorial2013

     A key for the Pace Profile Reports can be found here:

     Pace Profile Report Key

    WOOD MEMORIAL

    This is a very strong field (6.7 Key Race Rating), featuring two undefeated Kentucky Derby contenders — VERRAZANO and VYJACK — and some other talented sophomores. The key here, as I see it, is how fast the early splits are going to be and how VERRAZANO will react.

    ALWAYS IN A TIZ dons blinkers after showing speed at Oaklawn Park and FREEDOM CHILD has also shown a lot of early foot. This makes me believe that the pacesetter’s early speed ration (ESR) will be in the -10 range and VERRAZANO will be sitting in third in the initial stages.

    Given that, will the son of More Than Ready show the same zip in the stretch (-4 late speed ration) that he did after setting moderate splits in the Tampa Bay Derby? Logically speaking, the answer is no… but Todd Pletcher’s colt is extremely talented and may rise to the challenge.
     
    Still, at odds-on, is he worth the risk? Not to me. I’ll forego the cup of coffee he’ll return if he wins and look elsewhere.

    The problem is where? Both NORMANDY INVASION and VYJACK have ideal running styles for this event, but both figure to get bet as well. Hence, I think the value in the Wood might be in the exotics. I’ll look to key — on top and bottom — any of contenders below that meet or exceed their fair odds:

    2-NORMANDY INVASION (7-2)
    5-VYJACK (5-2)
    6-MR PALMER (12-1)
    8-VERRAZANO (8-5)
    9-GO GET THE BASIL (20-1)

    SANTA ANITA DERBY

    I actually like this race a lot, because there’s a horse in here that I think is “flying under the radar” (as the saying goes). STORM FIGHTER shows both improving ESRs and LSRs and, last time, posted very competitive speed and pace figures (93 Brisnet speed figure, -7 LSR). True, it’s a big jump from a maiden special weight state-bred affair to a prestigious Grade I Kentucky Derby prep, but STORM FIGHTER’s price should make up for that.

    I also love the recent workouts of GOLDENCENTS, who I suspect will be on the engine and much tighter today than he was in the San Felipe. The distance is definitely an issue, but, again, the price figures to be right.

    Of course, another interesting aspect of this race is what Bob Baffert will do tactically with his three uncoupled entries, two of which — FLASHBACK and SUPER NINETY NINE — have strong early speed. Something tells me the latter will be asked to play the part of sacrificial lamb, which would all but eliminate GOLDENCENTS as a serious contender.

    My fair odds on the Santa Anita Derby:

    1-FLASHBACK (5-2)
    3-POWER BROKER (9-2)
    4-TIZ A MINISTER (8-1)
    5-GOLDENCENTS (7-2)
    6-SUPER NINETY NINE (8-1)
    7-SUMMER EXCLUSIVE (20-1)
    8-STORM FIGHTER (6-1)
    9-DIRTY SWAGG (99-1) 

  • Four-five is the Rainbow Six

    POSTED By Unknown
    I don't know many horse players who haven't had April 5 circled on their calendars for some time.

     Whether it's the Rainbow^6 mandatory payout, opening weekend at Keeneland, Derby Championship Series presented by TwinSpires.com weekends at Aqueduct and Santa Anita, or all of the above, this is unquestionably the biggest weekend of racing in the United States since the Breeders' Cup World Championships five months ago.

     I'll be in wagering action starting at 1:10 p.m. EDT when Keeneland lifts the lid on its 16-day season. It'll be a whirlwind three weeks with big fields and big prices, but the flurry of activity coast-to-coast expected over a 30-hour period will leave many people's head spinning, no doubt.

     The Rainbow^6 carryover will be around $2-million going into Friday's races, which is closing day at Gulfstream. That it's closing day means the whole net pool--which any other day only pays out to a single winner--will be paid out to all winners. It's an extremely unique opportunity to chase after a seven-figure pot for as little as a dime. Estimates for new money into the pool range from $4-million to $8-million! Imagine that: a $10-million pool on a base wager of a dime!

     Of course, the TwinSpires.com Players Pool is looking to hit it for more than a dime, as me and handicapping champions Michael Beychok & Patrick McGoey will have tens of thousands of dollars (i.e., hundreds of thousands of dimes) to wager on the sequence that begins with race 8 at 4:34 p.m. EDT.

     FRIDAY MORNING UPDATE: Well, we're off the turf at Gulfstream, which is a slight monkey wrench considering pending scratches and having to re-handicap some races for dirt/off track. The biggest change is in wagering strategy, though. The Players Pool is putting $100,000 into this, and the goal is not to hit the Rainbow^6 but to make money. Some combinations will absolutely need to be covered multiple times--maybe as many as 100x ($10) or 200x ($20) times.

    On the plus side, we're "fast" (Polytrack) and firm at Keeneland, so tab below is pretty current. The Gulfstream tab will be updated as scratches come in. The Gulfstream "picks" below is my grid only and does not reflect the approach of the Players Pool or its other panelists.

  • Gulfstream Thursday February 14

    POSTED Feb 14, 2013 By Unknown
    The Rainbow^6 carries on at Gulfstream, and so, too, does my attempt to hit a Pick 4 at this meeting.

     Did OK yesterday if you ignore the fact that both my "had to win" singles lost. Definitely a loser on the day, but a couple spot exacta plays kept me from pitching a shutout.

     If there were a Pick 5 carryover I'd probably take a swing, but as is I think the Pick 4 is tough enough, so I'll just target that with an all "A" play.

     Good luck to those getting involved!