Showing posts with label Flat Out. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Flat Out. Show all posts

  • pace in your face with a can of mace

    POSTED Aug 30, 2013 By Unknown
    Pace handicapping is actually a two-step process. The question is not "How fast will they go," but (in the case of front runners), "How fast can this horse go and still win?"

     "A lot of pace in the race" doesn't set the race up for a closer if three front runners are gassed after a :22 first quarter and :45 half but a fourth horse is able to run those fractions and still come home in :24 for 1:09 for six furlongs. A closer five lengths off that pace would have to come home in :23 for a chance, and that's no easy task.

     As countless handicapping books have told me (and by countless, I mean I'm too lazy to count them, not that it's an infinite number), the idea that most closers (on dirt) run faster late than early is an illusion. I won't say most horses do their "best" running early, but it's certainly the fastest part of the race more often than not, which is why so-called speed biases have more to do with the animals contesting the race than the surface itself, but I digress because that's off the topic of Mucho Macho Man and Lea winning the Woodward and Forego Stakes (links to FREE Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances), respectively, on Saturday at Saratoga Race Course--the summer place to be celebrating 150 years of aristocratic merriment in the foothill of the Adirondack Mountains.
    Mucho Macho Man likes fighting for lead
    Admittedly, Mucho Macho Man is a bit of a price play, as I don't see him as the most likely winner of the race, but I do see him as likely a winner of the other obvious horses (in alphabetical order) Flat Out, Paynter, and Successful Dan (Alpha & Ron The Greek can beat me). So if your fair odds on Flat Out, Paynter, and Successful Dan are 3-to-1 then Mucho Macho Man figures nicely at 4-to-1 (that leaves a 19-to-1 chance that either of "can beat me" horses actually beat me).

     So what does Mucho Macho Man have to do to win? Well, he's done it six times in his career, and every time he's been either on the lead or in second place after the first quarter mile. Put another way, he's winless in nine starts when not first or second after a quarter mile and 6-for-15 when in that position.

     Can he be there on Saturday in the Woodward? The Brisnet.com pace figures easily say yes. With Fort Larned out, Paynter and Mucho Macho Man are tied for the best early pace last race figure. Early pace measures from the start to the first call, and it's several points back to Flat Out and the rest.

     Like most high-class animals racing in quality races, Mucho Macho Man goes faster for the first six furlongs than he does for the first half mile. His E2 pace rating (start to second call) was 109 last time, but that's not even close to what he's capable of. When he won the Suburban last year he popped a 100 through half a mile and then a 117 through six furlongs and kept on going.

     I'm betting on the come here, because there is no guarantee he'll keep on going this time, but I do think there's a better than 20% chance that he does, and that makes him a good play.

     Take a look at the race summary below and check out how Mucho Macho Man stacks up against the rest in average and best pace. Is he a standout? No, but considering the prices I think he's the obvious bet.

    The Forego is a different situation, as I'm playing against the speed in this race, but I don't think Lea is as much of a stretch as everyone else.

    Lea was everyone's sexy pick to upset Horse of the Year Wise Dan in both the Firecracker and Fourstardave Handicaps. He was 9-to-2 in both attempts and never really threatened the dual champion with a now-eight-race winning streak. He'll be at least double (and more likely triple) that price in the Forego with a lot of positive angles in play, including going turf to dirt on the cut back.

     It's also worth noting that his best race came in a one-turn dirt affair. Granted, that was off the turf on a sloppy track, but there is no reason to think that Lea can't fulfill his promise with a Grade 1 win here.

     WAGERING STRATEGY: I'll play Lea across the board. There's no reason to get cute in exotics when he'll be a square price and you'll get paid just for hitting the board. As for the Woodward, Mucho Macho Man is a win-place candidate.

     As for multiple-race wagers, there's an all-graded-stakes Pick 3 that begins with the Bernard Baruch, and Silver Max is a single for me in there and a win bet at odds of 8-to-5 or better (I'll single him down to even money). I'll play him with ALL in the Forego and the aforementioned quartet in the Woodward for $32. I'll also give myself a chance to really by right by playing Silver Max-Lea and Lea-Mucho Macho Man doubles.

     Good luck!

  • Greatness at Gulfstream

    POSTED Feb 7, 2013 By Derek Simon
    Animal Kingdom (from businessinsider.com)
    On my podcast this week, I said I was going to write about a cool new system I devised to analyze races without immersing oneself in the past performances.

    I lied.

    I’m sorry, but I couldn’t help it. When I saw the races on tap at Gulfstream Park this weekend, I just had to weigh in with my opinion.

    Rest assured, I’ll talk about that cool system next week, but until then, check out my thoughts on two of the better races on Saturday’s card at Gulfstream Park:

    GULFSTREAM PARK TURF HANDICAP
    02/09/13 Gulfstream Park Race 8

    Personally, I think this race could be a lot tougher than it looks on paper. The problem is the main contenders — Point of Entry and Animal Kingdom — are come-from-behind runners and there’s not a whole lot of pace in the race. Hence, speed will probably not be the deciding factor — positioning will be.

    By default, Salto looks like the horse most likely to be on the engine. Now, the Todd Pletcher trainee does have talent — he was a close fourth to Group 2 winner Zinabaa in his native France and was runner-up in the Grade III Cliff Hanger Stakes at Monmouth Park — but he’s struggled against tougher foes. Worse, his late speed rations (LSRs) are just mediocre for this group.

    Among the likely second flight are the aforementioned Point of Entry and Unbridled Command. 

    Let’s start with the former. 

    Unlike Salto, Point of Entry has no class questions to answer. An Eclipse finalist for Top Male Turf Horse, the son of Dynaformer was a three-time Grade I winner in 2012 and consistently earned positive LSRs. There’s an issue, though: Point of Entry has done his best running at distances of 11 furlongs or greater — distances which emphasize stamina rather than a quick turn of foot. In fact, in races under 11 furlongs, the colt is just 1-for-8 (albeit the majority of those races were at the start of his career). 

    So, the question one must ask is: “Does one take a short price on a horse that may not be — and probably isn’t — competing at its best distance?”

    The workouts say yes; the (likely) price… not so much.

    Unbridled Command, on the other hand, has the talent and running style to upset this field — and the price figures to be right. But the 76-day layoff gives me pause. Still, the Thomas Bush (who’s very good off of layoffs, by the way) trainee is certainly one I would use if his odds are in the 7-2 range or greater come post time.

    As for Animal Kingdom, I think he’s probably going to be overbet and the pace scenario is against him. Nonetheless, he’s got a ton of talent and, despite having won the Kentucky Derby, he’s probably better on the lawn than the dirt.

    DONN HANDICAP
    02/09/13 Gulfstream Park Race 11

    This race pits some up-and-comers against more established performers. In the former group is trainer Todd Pletcher’s talented Graydar, Super Derby winner Bourbon Courage, last year’s Florida Derby champ Take Charge Indy and Csaba, winner of four straight, including the Grade III Hal’s Hope on Jan. 13.

    The latter group boasts of two-time Jockey Club Gold Cup victor Flat Out, Grade I winner (on turf) Ultimate Eagle and the eight-year-old Stephen Foster champion Pool Play.

    Below is a look at each entrant, along with my adjusted Win Factor Report odds:

    Bourbon Courage
    Fair Odds: 12-1

    I loved this guy in the Clark at Churchill Downs, but I’m less enthralled with him in this spot — for three reasons:

    1) He’s likely to be an underlay on Saturday based on his effort in the Clark.
    2) Although he’s improving, Bourbon Courage’s Brisnet speed figures are still a notch below those of the top contenders.
    3) Unlike Churchill Downs, Gulfstream Park is not particularly kind to steeds with late-running styles and strong LSRs. In fact, in 2012, horses running at GP that last competed at Churchill cost their backers over 65 cents on every dollar wagered.

    Flat Out
    Fair Odds: 10-1

    Son of Flatter definitely has the talent to win this, but I question whether he has the desire. Frankly, Flat Out has been tough for me to figure of late, which could be due to his advancing years… or my advancing years. 

    I loved his effort in the Whitney and the Jockey Club Gold Cup, but was less than thrilled — the supposed Santa Anita track bias notwithstanding — with his try in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, a race that saw him finish evenly at a short price for the second year in a row.

    Fast Falcon
    Fair Odds: 30-1

    The bottom line is that this Nick Zito trainee has won exactly one race in his life and it was against maidens. At least on paper, he’s just not good enough.

    Graydar
    Fair Odds: 8-1

    Like Fast Falcon, this guy hasn’t beaten much (in his latest, he defeated Tiz Yankee, who came back to annex a N2L allowance race), but he does show a lot of upside. If he can handle the class hike (a big “if”) and if the layoff hasn’t dulled him (smaller “if”), he’s got a shot.

    Ultimate Eagle
    Fair Odds: 7-2

    Even though this Michael Pender trainee was beaten in the San Pasqual and that race earned a dismal 2.4 Key Race Rating, I like his chances in this event and here’s why:

    1) He’s the speed of the speed and his jock, noted “gate rider” Martin Pedroza, should be able to exploit that fact over a track that generally favors early runners.
    2) In the San Pasqual, Ultimate Eagle recorded a very strong -5 LSR and fought back gamely after he was headed by the eventual race winner Coil, who, as a two-time Grade I winner, is not exactly a slouch.
    3) Though Pender doesn’t ship often — and he’s not very good at it when he does — Ultimate Eagle appears to be working extremely well. And, at five years of age, the son of Mizzen Mist could well be poised for a career year.

    Ducduc
    Fair Odds: 20-1

    Son of Langfuhr is now seven years old and has a single Grade III win on his resume. Not for me.

    Csaba
    Fair Odds: 6-1

    I’m impressed by this colt’s form, although his speed and particularly his pace figures give me pause. In his last three starts, beginning with his most recent (the Hal’s Hope), Csaba has earned LSRs of -13, -9 and -10.

    Take Charge Indy
    Fair Odds: 10-1

    It’s put up or shut up time for trainer Patrick Byrne’s stable star… and I suspect the response will be silence. Look, Take Charge Indy is clearly talented, but the fact is he has exactly one race on his resume that makes him a contender in this event — the Florida Derby.

    Remember that event?

    Let me refresh the memories of those who don’t. Against a field that included the two-year-old champion and eventual Belmont Stakes winner, Union Rags, Take Charge Indy rated on an extremely soft pace (-2 ESR) and cruised to a one-length victory.

    He followed that performance up with a dreadful showing in the Kentucky Derby, albeit with some excuses (what Derby loser doesn’t have a story to tell?), and a pair of minor awards in the Grade II Fayette and the Grade I Clark.

    Is he a contender in the Donn? Yes. Is he one of the favorites to win? Personally, I don’t think so. I’d need a price.

    Pool Play
    Fair Odds: 10-1

    I’m embarrassed to say I liked this guy in the BC Classic and he ran like something one would flush. Still, I’d be willing to give him another chance at a price — if only because I think he relishes the dirt and he proved last time that he can close over the speed-favoring GP surface.

    Citrus Kid
    Fair Odds: 15-1

    Not sure this one is fast enough, although I’d be intrigued if his price was in the 30-1 range… which it just might be.
    (Click on image to enlarge)
    Kentucky Derby Future Pool #1

    This weekend, one of my favorite bets is back. The Kentucky Derby Future Wager (Pool 1), which runs from Feb. 8-10, provides insightful gamblers with the opportunity to lock in some great prices on potential Derby starters.

    The pool consists of 24 wagering interests — 23 individual entrants and the mutuel field, which is comprised of all the remaining eligible three-year-olds. Because it is a pari-mutuel bet, the Derby Future Wager odds tend to be much fairer than those offered by most sportsbooks and casinos.

    Click HERE to get a free Brisnet past performances, along with my speed rations,for every entrant in the Pool.

  • Breeders Cup 2012

    POSTED Nov 1, 2012 By Derek Simon
    If ever there was a case study as to why value wagering is important, the Breeders’ Cup is it. Played out in the classrooms of Belmont Park, Santa Anita, Churchill Downs and other venues, the Breeders’ Cup races demonstrate why Vince Lombardi would have made a terrible gambler. Winning isn’t the only thing — price matters.

    Hence, I implore handicappers to focus on finding viable contenders rather than “winners” on Nov. 2-3 at Santa Anita. In fact, by eliminating horses that can’t — or probably won’t — win and insisting on reasonable odds on the ones that can, the Breeders’ Cup can be a veritable ATM machine for value-oriented bettors.

    Consider this: Since 1999, playing my Win Factor Report (WFR) morning-line overlays has produced a 73.14% ROI, with nine (of 13) winning years.

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    The rules are simple and are detailed in my Win Factor Reports — which are offered as part of the Ultimate Breeders' Cup Handicapping Package at Brisnet.com.

    As for my thoughts on the BC Classic specifically, as well as some great stats on Lasix and the effect the ban of that drug in juvenile races might have, check out the video below:

    Weekend Win Factor Reports

    Breeders’ Cup (Friday & Saturday)

    Selected Angle/Method Plays

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    (Click on image to enlarge)

  • Horse racing in the fall: A look toward the Breeders' Cup futures

    POSTED Sep 8, 2011 By Unknown
    I love the Kentucky Derby. As far as a true season goes in horse racing, nothing beats the Derby prep season that culminates in a championship that is the Triple Crown.

    And while many lament that Thoroughbred racing lacks a true season outside of the above events, Breeders' Cup prep season certainly comes closest. Plus, I like the weather in Kentucky from September-November better than I do in March-May.

    This Breeders' Cup prep season promises to be a doozy both on the track and in the press as the connections of both Blind Luck and Havre de Grace map out a path that will certainly decide champion older female and possibly Horse of the Year.

    As a fan of the sport, I'd love to see them win prep races on opposite coasts and then race in the Classic to decide Horse of the Year. I see that scenario as bringing maximum exposure to the event, but I certainly couldn't fault trainer Jerry Hollendorfer's gamesmanship if he wants to ship Blind Luck to face Havre de Grace in the Beldame.

    IF either Blind Luck or Havre de Grace run in the Breeders' Cup Classic then I would have no issue making either one of them my single "A" in pick N wagers. If they both run I'd probably use them in equal strength and relegate any other contenders to "C" status.

    That's a long way away, of course, but I do think both are faster than any horse out there under the Classic's conditions. The question this far out is not whether either could do what Zenyatta couldn't but whether either of them will try.

    Havre de Grace's connections said after her victory against males in the Woodward that they would pre-enter their Saint Liam filly in both the Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic and the Classic on the following day. Hollendorfer, meanwhile, has been steadfast that the Classic has never been under consideration for Blind Luck.

    While I believe the sentiment now, I have a hard time believing the filly's connections will secede Eclipse Award consideration to Havre de Grace by not facing her in the Breeders' Cup should the Woodward winner again face males. If the two super fillies head to the Ladies' Classic, though, then the Classic becomes more wide open.

    Wynn Las Vegas Race & Sports Book has 72 individual horses listed on its Breeders' Cup Classic future book released September 6, and of that list there is a baker's dozen that I find compelling at the odds.

    If I lived in Las Vegas I would be looking to make about an even money wager that one of the 13 horses I've identified will win the race. I've already wagered $100 on Blind Luck to win the Classic at 50-to-1 odds, so the spreadsheet below reflects that price and NOT the 30-to-1 she is currently trading at.

    The investment is an even $1,000 with the idea that if any of my horses wins, I'll get back ~$2,000 with some "bonuses" for horses I really like such as Flat Out at 15-to-1, Giant Oak at 30-to-1, and To Honor And Serve at 75-to-1. Havre de Grace at 9-to-1 isn't GREAT considering the uncertainty surrounding her participation, but having the leverage of being able to play other horses makes it easier to lean on her here.

    I considered Twirling Candy at 8-to-1 and Stay Thirsty at 12-to-1 not necessarily because I think those are great prices but because I'd be shocked if either is a Classic non starter. Twirling Candy, I guess, could end up in the Dirt Mile or Mile, but he's just been too competitive all year not to take a shot with no real superstars besides the fillies. Stay Thirsty I just decided I'll re-evaluate as the race gets closer.

    Joe Nevills started a good dialogue about these prices on Twitter. Join in the conversation there or leave a comment below.

    The chart below lists all 72 individual betting interests for the Classic on the Wynn future book
    sorted first by the horses I would bet and then alphabetically by the horses I wouldn't.