Showing posts with label Successful Dan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Successful Dan. Show all posts

  • pace in your face with a can of mace

    POSTED Aug 30, 2013 By Unknown
    Pace handicapping is actually a two-step process. The question is not "How fast will they go," but (in the case of front runners), "How fast can this horse go and still win?"

     "A lot of pace in the race" doesn't set the race up for a closer if three front runners are gassed after a :22 first quarter and :45 half but a fourth horse is able to run those fractions and still come home in :24 for 1:09 for six furlongs. A closer five lengths off that pace would have to come home in :23 for a chance, and that's no easy task.

     As countless handicapping books have told me (and by countless, I mean I'm too lazy to count them, not that it's an infinite number), the idea that most closers (on dirt) run faster late than early is an illusion. I won't say most horses do their "best" running early, but it's certainly the fastest part of the race more often than not, which is why so-called speed biases have more to do with the animals contesting the race than the surface itself, but I digress because that's off the topic of Mucho Macho Man and Lea winning the Woodward and Forego Stakes (links to FREE Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances), respectively, on Saturday at Saratoga Race Course--the summer place to be celebrating 150 years of aristocratic merriment in the foothill of the Adirondack Mountains.
    Mucho Macho Man likes fighting for lead
    Admittedly, Mucho Macho Man is a bit of a price play, as I don't see him as the most likely winner of the race, but I do see him as likely a winner of the other obvious horses (in alphabetical order) Flat Out, Paynter, and Successful Dan (Alpha & Ron The Greek can beat me). So if your fair odds on Flat Out, Paynter, and Successful Dan are 3-to-1 then Mucho Macho Man figures nicely at 4-to-1 (that leaves a 19-to-1 chance that either of "can beat me" horses actually beat me).

     So what does Mucho Macho Man have to do to win? Well, he's done it six times in his career, and every time he's been either on the lead or in second place after the first quarter mile. Put another way, he's winless in nine starts when not first or second after a quarter mile and 6-for-15 when in that position.

     Can he be there on Saturday in the Woodward? The Brisnet.com pace figures easily say yes. With Fort Larned out, Paynter and Mucho Macho Man are tied for the best early pace last race figure. Early pace measures from the start to the first call, and it's several points back to Flat Out and the rest.

     Like most high-class animals racing in quality races, Mucho Macho Man goes faster for the first six furlongs than he does for the first half mile. His E2 pace rating (start to second call) was 109 last time, but that's not even close to what he's capable of. When he won the Suburban last year he popped a 100 through half a mile and then a 117 through six furlongs and kept on going.

     I'm betting on the come here, because there is no guarantee he'll keep on going this time, but I do think there's a better than 20% chance that he does, and that makes him a good play.

     Take a look at the race summary below and check out how Mucho Macho Man stacks up against the rest in average and best pace. Is he a standout? No, but considering the prices I think he's the obvious bet.

    The Forego is a different situation, as I'm playing against the speed in this race, but I don't think Lea is as much of a stretch as everyone else.

    Lea was everyone's sexy pick to upset Horse of the Year Wise Dan in both the Firecracker and Fourstardave Handicaps. He was 9-to-2 in both attempts and never really threatened the dual champion with a now-eight-race winning streak. He'll be at least double (and more likely triple) that price in the Forego with a lot of positive angles in play, including going turf to dirt on the cut back.

     It's also worth noting that his best race came in a one-turn dirt affair. Granted, that was off the turf on a sloppy track, but there is no reason to think that Lea can't fulfill his promise with a Grade 1 win here.

     WAGERING STRATEGY: I'll play Lea across the board. There's no reason to get cute in exotics when he'll be a square price and you'll get paid just for hitting the board. As for the Woodward, Mucho Macho Man is a win-place candidate.

     As for multiple-race wagers, there's an all-graded-stakes Pick 3 that begins with the Bernard Baruch, and Silver Max is a single for me in there and a win bet at odds of 8-to-5 or better (I'll single him down to even money). I'll play him with ALL in the Forego and the aforementioned quartet in the Woodward for $32. I'll also give myself a chance to really by right by playing Silver Max-Lea and Lea-Mucho Macho Man doubles.

     Good luck!

  • Insider Overlay Underlays

    POSTED Jun 28, 2012 By Derek Simon
    Although I often talk… and talk… and talk some more about the importance of overlays to one’s betting bottom line, there are instances when underlays — or at least perceived underlays — can be excellent wagers. Take, for example, the 10th race at Los Alamitos on Sunday, July 18, 2010.

    Among the entrants in that $10,000 maiden claiming event for quarter horses going 300 yards, was Ar Firestorm, a two-year-old gelding that had finished dead last, beaten 4 ¾ lengths (the equivalent of about 21 lengths at six furlongs), in his only start. Yet, despite being dismissed at 8-1 on the morning line, Ar Firestorm was heavily supported throughout the wagering, dipping to 3-1 in the final minutes before a rash of late money on the favorite drove his odds up to 9-2 by the time the gates sprung.

    Copyrighted ©2010 by Daily Racing Form, LLC and Equibase Co.
    Reprinted with permission of the copyright owner.
    (Click on image to enlarge)


    Now, years ago, handicapping author and professional gambler Barry Meadow thoroughly debunked the notion of “smart” money — at least as it relates to horses that are bet below their morning line odds. However, even Meadow left the door open for what he termed “mystery money,” or horses “getting hammered for no discernible reason,” which certainly appeared to be the case with Ar Firestorm.

    True, the gelding was dropping from a straight maiden affair to a maiden claiming event, arguably the biggest and most meaningful class drop in all of racing, but outside of that, there wasn’t much to like about the son of Red Fire, was there? 

    Well, on the surface, no, but remember: beauty is only skin deep. If one had taken the time to look beyond the obvious, three things about Ar Firestorm practically leapt off the pages of the past performances:
    1)  He was reasonably well backed (9-1) in his career debut, despite the fact that he faced superior competition that day.
    2)  Eduardo Nicasio was tabbed to ride the youngster. Prior to July 18, 2010, Nicasio had won with four of his five previous mounts for trainer Hector Hernandez. As Adam Sandler might say, “not too shabby.”
    3)  Hernandez was wheeling Ar Firestorm back to the races in just seven days (see above) — a clear indication that he felt the gelding was fit and ready to fire his best shot.
    So, as much as I beat the drum for overlay betting, I must admit, in cases like this, I love to see the horse I’m considering get some respect at the windows, as it suggests that the connections or other “insiders” are putting their money where their mouths are.

    Needless to say, despite breaking slowly for the second time in a row, Ar Firestorm closed with a rush and won impressively, returning $11.40.

    Big Races on the Prairie

    A trio of Grade III stakes races highlights a fantastic card at Prairie Meadows on Saturday. Here’s a look at each one:
    (Click on image to enlarge)
    COMMENTS: Traditionally, Prairie Meadows has been kind to early runners and, in this event, the quickest of the quick appears to be TAPAJO, who is coming off a win in the Panthers Stakes. In that race, Tapajo rated on a brisk pace (-10 early speed ration) and pulled away late to score by 6 ¼ lengths and earn a 92 Brisnet speed figure (today’s par is 97). Her latest work — a slow :51-1/5 for four furlongs — is a bit troubling, but the daughter of Tapit looks like the one to catch if ready. 

    Although ICE CREAM SILENCE beat just two rivals in her latest, including LIVI MAKENZIE who is also in this field, she did it with authority, earning an 89 BSF and -3 late speed ration.

    UPTOWN BERTIE ran great in her latest and would be a huge threat if she can duplicate that effort.

    BET(S): WIN on 3-Tapajo at odds of 5-2 or greater.

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    COMMENTS: Not surprisingly, HANSEN looks dominant in this spot. To begin with, he is the only Grade I winner in the field and he exits the Kentucky Derby, an event that earned a 13.3 Key Race Rating (the Prairie Meadows Mile, which featured both ALSVID and TRUETAP, has the next-highest KRR at 5.3). What’s more, Hansen figures to dictate the pace.

    Frankly, the only betting option in this race is the aforementioned Alsvid, who I would suggest playing to place — just in case there is a negative place pool (likely; there is no show betting) and Hansen finishes out of the top two (unlikely).

    BET(S): PLACE on 2-Alsvid.

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    COMMENTS: Trainer Charles Lopresti has said that he thinks SUCCESSFUL DAN is better than his other stable star, Wise Dan (winner of the Ben Ali and a close second in the Stephen Foster), and, according to my pace figures and the Brisnet speed figures, Lopresti may be right. That said, I’m intrigued by SHADOWBDANCING, who has won five of 11 starts at Prairie Meadows.

    BET(S): WIN on 2-Shadowbdancing at odds of 8-1 or greater.

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    (Click on image to enlarge)

    Derek Simon’s Free Selection Statistics

    Races (Selections): 32 (33)       
    Wins: 8
    Rate: 25.0%     
    Return: $39.90  
    ROI: -39.55%    

    (This year's published selections through 6/28/2012)

  • Ahead to the Breeders' Cup

    POSTED Jun 15, 2012 By Unknown
    The Road to the Breeders' Cup World Championships begins in earnest on Saturday with the first of the Win & You're In races for the Breeders' Cup Classic, and it's a solid octet (nine entered but one of the Dans will scratch) led by Wise Dan assuming he starts in favor of his stablemate, Successful Dan.

    The older male group appears solid this year and three-year-olds such as Bodemeister and Union Rags can spice up the Classic division later in the year, but for as exciting as everyone staying healthy would be, it's hard to imagine any North American-based horse having the draw at Breeders' Cup that Black Caviar, Camelot, or Frankel would.

    The Breeders' Cup has not been shy about trying to land Black Caviar and Frankel for the World Championships on November 2-3 at Santa Anita Park, but what are the chances any of them show up?

    Camelot is certainly the most likely given he is owned by Coolmore, which has not been shy about bringing its absolute best horses to the States. It's trio in 2002 of Rock of Gibraltar (Mile), High Chaparral (Turf), and Hawk Wing (Classic) was easily one of the strongest international contingents ever assembled.

    Frankel's owner Juddmonte is a big supporter of American racing, including the Breeders' Cup, but his participation is certainly more tenuous. It's difficult imagining Frankel's connections risking an undefeated career in our Turf Mile, but winning the Classic to complete an undefeated career could stamp him as the greatest of all time.

    Black Caviar is a major longshot, but the down the hill turf sprint is ideal for her. Seeing her swing wide off that turn and accelerate for home would be worth whatever cost it takes to get there, and it's hard to imagine a shorter-priced favorite on the card (or maybe ever in the history of the Breeders' Cup) if she showed up.

    Unfortunately, it's tough to see that happening. I have Black Caviar at 100-to-1 to be in Arcadia with Camelot 25x more likely at 3-to-1 and Frankel 10x more likely at 9-to-1. At those odds, the chances that all three show up is 4,000-to-1 and the chance that none of them do is 3-to-5.
    Obviously a lot can happen between now and November, including both Frankel and Black Caviar running at Royal Ascot next week.

    As for this weekend, I'll be cheering for whichever Dan is running in the Stephen Foster, as I bet both of them to win the Classic. My take on the Stephen Foster is that Wise Dan is the fastest until he shows he isn't. I'm not over the Moon with the weight assignment (Big Cap winner Ron the Greek gets four pounds, multiple graded stakes winner Nates Mineshaft gets five, and both Nehro and Mission Impazible get seven each), but I like the post for the trip I'd like him to get. Wise Dan is unlikely to be a win play, but he's one I can lean on in the Pick 4s.

    The Stephen Foster closes out an all-stakes Pick 4 and begins the late Pick 4. Check out TwinSpires.com's 4x4 promotion to win up to 4-million points by playing each of the Pick 4s on Saturday at Churchill).

    Joel Cunningham, who didn't like Dullahan in the Belmont Stakes, picks Nehro to win the Stephen Foster. He's certainly a threat running late with the favorable impost.