Showing posts with label show betting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label show betting. Show all posts

  • The parlay savant

    POSTED Jul 19, 2013 By Unknown
    He did it again.

    Just ten days after turning $16 into $1,000 in Let 8 Ride, Ryan Yokoyama turned $10 into $1,551 in TwinSpires.com's Summer Showdown promotion by going eight-for-eight on $10 show bets Thursday at Del Mar. Also scoring a perfecto for his show wagering was "TPB", whose octet paid $65 in show winnings plus $1,500 from Summer Showdown.

    There were six players live going into the last race on Thursday. Yokoyama chose eventual winner Te Rapa as his show play while "TPB" went with favored Tamarack Smarty, who just did surge past pacesetter Beachcombing to nab third and an extra $1,514 for "TBP."

    "I give more preference to stalkers/pressers in the show contest unless I feel a speed horse will get a favorable scenario and/or has the best numbers," Yokoyama said of his Summer Showdown strategy.

     The first race was the biggest score for Yokomama, as 5.2-to-1 Minds Eyes paid $5 to show. "TPB" had 5.8-to-1 winner Tasty Treat in that race for a $5.20 show payoff, but his biggest score was in race 5 when 10-to-1 Plus One finished second and paid $5.40 to show.

     "I really don't have a secret," Yokomama said. "I love playing the contests, so they get a little more attention. I'm looking forward to the VIP contest [on Saturday]."

     The jackpot for Thursday's card was $3,000 instead of $1,500 because nobody successfully navigated Wednesday's (opening day's) ten-race sequence. If no one is perfect, then that day's $1,500 carries over to the next day. I.e., if no one had showed 8 on Thursday, then today's pot would have been $4,500. Instead, it's $1,500 for the eight-race card that begins at 7 p.m. EDT, 4p PT.

    The only day the perfection provision is not in place is on Sundays when those who last the longest split the pot. The action remains at one track each week, so the contest is at Del Mar through Sunday before shifting to Saratoga on Wednesday, July 24.

  • Summer Showdown strategy: the longer you go the easier it gets

    POSTED Jul 17, 2013 By Unknown
    We've
    Been
    Through
    This
    Before:

     Winning one show bet is easy (or at least it's the easiest bet to hit). Stringing them together is not.
    But such is the task that awaits TwinSpires.com players looking to stake their claim at the $50,000 up for grabs in the Summer Showdown promotion that starts today with race 1 at Del Mar Thoroughbred Club.

     To win (or share) in each day's $1,500 prize, all you have to do is make a winning $10 show bet on every race of the card at the designated track (this week it's Del Mar, next week it'll be Saratoga; for a full schedule, click scheduled & results on this page).

     If nobody picks 8 (or 9 or 10 or 11 or 12) then that day's $1,500 prize carries over into the next day. Each week is its own contest, meaning that Sundays are must-win days. If nobody runs the table during the week then Sunday's prize is $7,500 split among those who run the table or last the longest.

     Each day's contest begins with race 1 at the designated track, and only your first $10 show wager counts, so you can't dutch or buy a race. Also--unlike Let 8 Ride--this is not a parlay contest, so if you advance to the next race be sure to do a $10 show bet on your selection before placing any other bets (i.e., you may want to parlay, and you can--just split your bets. E.g., you bet $10 to show on a horse who hits the board and pays $3.60 to show. If you want to "let it ride" by betting $18 on the next race first bet $10 to show then $8 to show).

     The title of this post alludes to my strategy if I were able to compete for the $50,000 in prizes. There are two considerations when making a wager: The likelihood of something happening, and the price you get if it does.

     Without the $1,500 (or more!) carrot each day, anyone wishing to bet $10 to show should do so on the horse s/he feels offers the best value in that pool, but adding a bonus for sweeping the card changes that dynamic somewhat.

     The balance is that you are making live bets, so after your first bet you're -$10. If that initial bet pays $4 then you're +$10 and it's now "free" to play the rest of the day. If you cash two $3 payoffs then race 3 on is free, etc. For that reason, unless there is an absolute lock in the first couple-few races, I'm still betting the value, but once you're in a spot where you're up $10, going for the $1,500 (or more!) is more important than cashing value.

     That's another riff on my Players Pool conundrum post from a few weeks ago: winning underlay or losing overlay. If you've hit nine show bets in a row today at Del Mar, I would hope you put your $10 on the horse most likely to hit the board--even if the value is terrible because the value for you isn't collecting that $2.20 payoff when it should be $3.00, but it's in hitting the $1,500 bonus.

     Some have asked how I would play today's races. I'm not eligible for any additional prizes, but there's nothing wrong with hitting some $10 show bets, so I gave it a go. Below is my ABC grid for opening day at Del Mar plus an extra column labeled "SHOW" that indicates the horse I would use on day 1 of the $50k Summer Showdown.

  • Win $1 Million Betting to Show

    POSTED Feb 21, 2013 By Derek Simon
    One of my favorite events is back!

    Twinspires.com has announced that The Road to the Derby Showdown, a contest requiring participants to place $20 show bets on 17 designated Triple Crown prep races, as well as the Triple Crown races themselves, kicks off this Saturday, Feb. 23. The contest races are the Grade II Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds and the Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park, the latter of which is expected to mark the three-year-old debut of early Kentucky Derby favorite Violence.

    Given the lucrative prizes offered in the Showdown — $1 million, a share of a $10,000 pot and tickets to Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May — I thought it might be wise to go over some strategies for earning a share of the loot... I consider it my call to booty (sorry, I didn’t get much sleep last night).

    Anyway, the first thing to remember about the contest is that it is all about cashing tickets — something I’ve warned players against falling in love with when one is betting solely for profit. Obviously, a value-conscious player would much rather cash one out of three tickets for $17 than three out of three tickets for $7. For the sake of the Showdown, however, the latter scenario is more desirable.

    The second thing to keep in mind is that show betting is a bit different than win betting. As is the case when one is trying to profit from a negative show pool, the goal is not always to find the most likely winner, but, rather, the horse most likely to hit the board. Hence, one-dimensional steeds, e.g. need-the-lead types, are often best shunned.

    Now, before I present the results of some database studies I did, some term definitions are in order:

    RACES: The number of races studied.
    BETS/RACE: Number of qualifying horses, or wagers, per race studied.
    SHOW RATE: The chance, expressed as a percentage, that at least one of the qualifying horses hit the board (finished third or better).
    EFFECTIVE RATE: Measures the effectiveness of the criterion used and is obtained by dividing the Show Rate by the Bets/Race.

    As a general rule, I looked for the 2-3 horses that ranked (listen to my latest podcast for a pro/con discussion of rankings) highest in a variety of categories. I began by querying for the 2-3 horses that recorded the best median early speed rations (ESRs) in their last three starts. Not surprisingly — remember my point about need-the-lead types? — this avenue of study was among the least productive that I undertook:


    Note: If two or more horses were tied for the same position, their rankings were averaged. For example, if two horses tied for the top spot in a particular category, each was assigned a ranking of 1 ½ (average of positions 1 and 2); if three horses tied for the top spot, each was assigned a ranking of 2 (average of positions 1, 2 and 3); and so on and so on.

    Next, I looked for the 2-3 horses that earned the best median late speed rations (LSRs) in their last three starts:


    Better, but still nothing to write home about. I followed this test up with one seeking the best median Brisnet speed figures:

     
    After that, I tested the Brisnet Power Ratings, which resulted in numbers very similar to those obtained above:


    Lastly, I turned to the bettors for clues. First, I examined the actual post-time odds. Then, I studied the morning-line favorites:




    Shockingly, concentrating on the top two horses with the lowest morning line odds proved to be the most effective means of determining which horses were likely to finish in-the-money (among the methods I tested). However, let’s utilize as many of these techniques as possible on Saturday’s big races and see if we can reach a consensus choice in both the Risen Star and the Fountain of Youth.

    Let’s start with the former:

    2/23/13 FAIR GROUNDS (FG)
    RACE 10 * RISEN STAR STAKES * 1 1/16 MILES (DIRT)

    Top two median LSRs: 9-Normandy Invasion (-4) and 14-Departing (-5).
    Top two median BSFs: 6-Palace Malice (101) and 4-Code West (97).
    Top two Brisnet Power Ratings: 6-Palace Malice (141.0) and 9-Normandy Invasion (140.3).
    Top two morning-line choices: 9-Normandy Invasion (5/2) and 10-Oxbow (5/1).
     
    If name repetition means anything, Normandy Invasion looks like the best show candidate in this spot, as he’s ranked among the top two in several categories. I’m particularly impressed with his late speed rations, given that Fair Grounds — and this prep in particular — tends to favor horses that can motor home late.

    Click HERE to get a free Win Factor Report for Saturday’s Fair Grounds races.

    2/23/13 GULFSTREAM PARK (GP)
    RACE 11 * FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH * 1 1/16 MILES (DIRT)

    Top two median LSRs: 1-Orb (-9) and 8-Speak Logistics (-10).
    Top two median BSFs: 3-Violence (96).
    Top two Brisnet Power Ratings: 3-Violence (148.3) and 4-Majestic Hussar (136.4).
    Top two morning-line choices: 3-Violence (9/5) and 6-Cerro (4/1).

    Trainer Todd Pletcher’s Violence leads in three categories and would have to be considered the safest show bet in the Fountain of Youth (keep in mind that price is not a consideration in the Showdown challenge, so don’t be afraid to play favorites or near-favorites). That said, I am incredibly interested in Speak Logistics as a potential upsetter on Saturday. After recording an insane -15 ESR in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, jockey Angel Serpa chose to rate the son of High Cotton in the Sam F. Davis and promptly got shut off while making a move on the rail rounding the far turn.

    On Saturday, top rider Joel Rosario will be in the saddle and I think Speak Logistics could be poised for a career-best effort at what promises to be a big price.

    Click HERE to get a free Win Factor Report for Saturday’s Gulfstream Park races.


    (Click on image to enlarge)

    Free Weekend Win Factor Reports (with suggested plays)

     FRIDAY (02/22/12)

    Aqueduct 
    Fair Grounds 
    Hawthorne
    Tampa Bay Downs

    SATURDAY (02/23/12)

     Aqueduct
    Fair Grounds
    Gulfstream Park

  • Road To the Derby $1-million Showdown

    POSTED Feb 20, 2013 By Unknown
    Look, I'm not going to sit here and tell you how easy it is to win $1-million playing TwinSpires.com's $1-million Road to the Derby Showdown.

    Sure, the show wager is the easiest bet to hit when playing the races, but 20 in a row on races we pick makes it a lot more difficult.

     Difficult. Not impossible.

    TwinSpires.com ran this promotion last year but required 23 consecutive winning $20 show bets--20 before the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands and then the three Triple Crown races. This year 20 total is the magic number, and if someone starts off with 17 in a row as was the case last year, then s/he would be a Show Crown away from $1-million.

     Again, easier said than done, but if winning a million dollars were easy anywhere (even the track) then you'd never have heard about a bet called the Rainbow^6. And it's not as if it hasn't almost been done. If five people can go 18/20 and one person can do 17 in a row, then 20/20 is doable.

    Really, though, the $1-million prize is just a nice bonus if you get lucky and run the table. The benefit of the Road to the Derby Showdown beyond the million is that you get to keep your winnings and take a run at both a guaranteed $10,000 prize pool for sweeping the Triple Crown and tickets to next year's Kentucky Derby for cashing the most show bets during this year's prep season.

     Because each of the prizes reward being right more than being smart, the proper strategy is to always select the starter you think is most likely to finish third or better. With--at minimum--a share of $10,000 up for grabs, it is pound foolish to try to find value in the show pool when playing this contest. Building shares should be your focus during the prep season with survival being essential during the Triple Crown (you only cash in on a share of the $10k if you hit all three classics).

     Last year 17 individual players split the $10,000 with 200 shares among them making each share worth $50. Mona Weaver was one of five players with 18 shares but the only one to sweep the Triple Crown to earn $900 for her efforts.

    This year, there will be 15% fewer races for building shares, and if the ratio stays the same then that means each share would be worth $54.05. At that price point, it's easy to see how hitting 10 bets at $2.20 makes more sense than 8 at $4.

     So fund your TwinSpires.com account, study up on this weekend's races (including watching the TCI video below), and start on your path toward $1-million!