Showing posts with label Arlington. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Arlington. Show all posts

  • Million eve ABCs

    POSTED Aug 16, 2013 By Unknown
    Here is the ABC grid for Friday, August 16, at Arlington Park, which John G. Dooley just called one of his favorite days of the year. I can't imagine how excited he is for Million day itself, then!

    In addition to the great wagering menu Arlington offers, TwinSpires.com adds to the excitement with day two of Summer Showdown with a $3,000 carryover and Let 8 Ride requiring a $91 win wager on today's eighth race, which as you can probably surmise from the grid below I'd put on #3, Gostosa, who looks to be lone speed in that affair.

    Back to Summer Showdown, obviously the lone "A" picks are the tabs in those particular races. In the 2yo races (races 2 & 7) I'd be inclined to follow the money and bet the shortest price of my "A" picks.

    Good luck to all those playing, and save some bankroll for the first-ever Jackpot 5 wager that launches Saturday only on TwinSpires with a $25,000 "carryover" for a unique winner.

  • Big races, big money, big fun Arlington Million week

    POSTED Aug 14, 2013 By Unknown
    Whether it's carryovers, guaranteed pools, or contests you like (and especially if it's all of the above), Arlington Million week on TwinSpires.com offers great wagering opportunities to go along with the great racing at Arlington International Racecourse.

     Thursday features a $14,270 Pick 5 carryover and the start of both Summer Showdown and Let 8 Ride contests on TwinSpires.com. Summer Showdown features a daily contest while Let 8 Ride let's you keep playing only if you hit a win bet in the eighth race each day. Friday has sunset racing leading into the International Festival of Racing on Saturday with guaranteed pools on the all-stakes Pick 5 ($100,000) and Pick 4 ($200,000).

     Want a shot at all that money but not as familiar with racing this week at Arlington Park because of Polytrack, the Europeans, etc.? Brisnet.com has some Arlington-specific information to help you handicap. Arlington At A Glance provides a snapshot of how the track is playing as well as horsemen to watch in the races with mostly local horses.

     Regardless of distance or surface, closers are not doing well at Arlington. In main track (Polytrack) sprints (one mile or less), "E" type is the best pace style at six, seven, and eight furlongs. "P" types fare better at 1 1/16 miles. On the turf, speed or tracking speed is far better than a sustained late run.

     There does not, however, appear to be a better part of the track, as there is plenty of variety under the "best posts" column from rail, rail/inside, middle, and outside.

     The stats tell the story of what's happened at Arlington, but what about what might happen with the Euros? We won't know for sure until Saturday, but Nick Luck of Channel 4 in England joined Steve Byk on Wednesday to discuss all 14 European horses. Click here for an .mp3 of that conversation.

     Also discussing how the European horses factor in the Million day wagering, is Mark Johnson, who will provide Brisnet.com with Spotlight Selections covering the whole Million day card with a special focus on international class.

     Regardless of how Arlington plays this week, we know it's going to pay this week. If you solve the pari-mutuel puzzle, the payouts are nice. 40-to-1 on exactas, 44-to-1 on doubles, and $1,650 average on $.50 Pick 4s. TwinSpires is adding to the money as well with $6,000 guaranteed in Summer Showdown (including a potential $4,500 pot for sweeping the Million day card) and $1,500 in free money for Let 8 Ride players who make it to Saturday and Sunday.

     On personal level I'm excited because the racing at Arlington has kept me afloat in recent years thanks to the Pick 5 on Arlington Preview day in 2011 and the Pick 5 on Million day last year. With 12,168 combos available in the all-Festival-stakes Pick 4 on Saturday and a $200,000 guaranteed pool I plan to come out with guns blazing. Hopefully I'll have money left after chasing that Pick 5 carryover on Thursday, though!

     Speaking of that Thursday card, here is my ABC grid for the nine race extravaganza.

  • Show me the carryovers!

    POSTED Jul 18, 2013 By Unknown
    The first of 34 Summer Showdown days is in the books, and nobody picked 10 (or 9 or 8) on the opening day program at Del Mar, which means there's $3,000 up for grabs today--$1,500 from Wednesday plus the guaranteed $1,500 every day.

     If you played yesterday don't get discouraged; today's task is easier since there is only eight races on the card. If you can pick a horse to show 50% of the time, then that 20% reduction in races makes you about four times more likely to sweep the card! We've doubled the money available, and your'e four times more likely to win it. Can't beat that! If you didn't play yesterday, then today is a great day to jump in because of the extra money.

     The other good news for those taking a run, is you won't have my pitiful show selections around to gum up your game. I was out after the first race yesterday, and only three of my ten picks managed to hit the board.

     However, even though my handicapping did not produce winners show horses, I stand behind the strategy because those who did connect early were playing with house money the rest of the day by virtue of all three show payoffs in the first race being more than $4. I.e., Any winning $10 show bet returned more than $20, so even after placing another $10 bet on race two, you were up on the day for that particular wager.

     Even better is that the average show price among the 30 horses to hit the board on the program was $4.60, and only one race (the second) did not include a horse who paid at least $4 to show. With judicious handicapping and selection, your show bets can make Summer Showdown a freeroll for $1,500 (or more!) every day through September 1!

     Of all the players who placed a $10 show wager on the first race, Richard L. lasted the longest with seven consecutive winning plays before dropping race 8 (a race that also tripped me up). If he makes it that far today AND nails that elusive eighth race then he'll win or share the $3,000.

     My focus today is on a carryover I am eligible for: the $12,903 carryover in the Pick 5 at Arlington International Racecourse. A pair of third choices on the morning lines are the key for me as single "A" picks: #1 Pranksterbdancing in Race 6 (leg 2) and #7 Tornadito in race 7 (leg 3).

     Pranksterbdancing looks to have a big pace edge on the field of lower level claimers and the opportunity to beat the logical 7-to-5 and 2-to-1 morning line choices could really boost the Pick 5 payout. Tornadito drops in and cuts back off a speed and fade job from an outside post in his debut.

  • Summer Showdown strategy: the longer you go the easier it gets

    POSTED Jul 17, 2013 By Unknown
    We've
    Been
    Through
    This
    Before:

     Winning one show bet is easy (or at least it's the easiest bet to hit). Stringing them together is not.
    But such is the task that awaits TwinSpires.com players looking to stake their claim at the $50,000 up for grabs in the Summer Showdown promotion that starts today with race 1 at Del Mar Thoroughbred Club.

     To win (or share) in each day's $1,500 prize, all you have to do is make a winning $10 show bet on every race of the card at the designated track (this week it's Del Mar, next week it'll be Saratoga; for a full schedule, click scheduled & results on this page).

     If nobody picks 8 (or 9 or 10 or 11 or 12) then that day's $1,500 prize carries over into the next day. Each week is its own contest, meaning that Sundays are must-win days. If nobody runs the table during the week then Sunday's prize is $7,500 split among those who run the table or last the longest.

     Each day's contest begins with race 1 at the designated track, and only your first $10 show wager counts, so you can't dutch or buy a race. Also--unlike Let 8 Ride--this is not a parlay contest, so if you advance to the next race be sure to do a $10 show bet on your selection before placing any other bets (i.e., you may want to parlay, and you can--just split your bets. E.g., you bet $10 to show on a horse who hits the board and pays $3.60 to show. If you want to "let it ride" by betting $18 on the next race first bet $10 to show then $8 to show).

     The title of this post alludes to my strategy if I were able to compete for the $50,000 in prizes. There are two considerations when making a wager: The likelihood of something happening, and the price you get if it does.

     Without the $1,500 (or more!) carrot each day, anyone wishing to bet $10 to show should do so on the horse s/he feels offers the best value in that pool, but adding a bonus for sweeping the card changes that dynamic somewhat.

     The balance is that you are making live bets, so after your first bet you're -$10. If that initial bet pays $4 then you're +$10 and it's now "free" to play the rest of the day. If you cash two $3 payoffs then race 3 on is free, etc. For that reason, unless there is an absolute lock in the first couple-few races, I'm still betting the value, but once you're in a spot where you're up $10, going for the $1,500 (or more!) is more important than cashing value.

     That's another riff on my Players Pool conundrum post from a few weeks ago: winning underlay or losing overlay. If you've hit nine show bets in a row today at Del Mar, I would hope you put your $10 on the horse most likely to hit the board--even if the value is terrible because the value for you isn't collecting that $2.20 payoff when it should be $3.00, but it's in hitting the $1,500 bonus.

     Some have asked how I would play today's races. I'm not eligible for any additional prizes, but there's nothing wrong with hitting some $10 show bets, so I gave it a go. Below is my ABC grid for opening day at Del Mar plus an extra column labeled "SHOW" that indicates the horse I would use on day 1 of the $50k Summer Showdown.

  • Let 8 Ride is back with big wins

    POSTED Jul 11, 2013 By Unknown
    What started out as an $8 win bet on Thursday turned into a $1,407 decision on Sunday.

     California horseplayer Ryan Yokoyama decided to take the plunge, and although he didn't connect on his win bet to land in the Jay Trotter Hall of Fame, there was a $1,000 safety net waiting for him as the lone Let 8 Ride player to survive Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.

    "My thought is I was getting a free $1,000 bet, and that rarely happens," Yokoyama said. "In one way, you can look at it as I lost $407, but I prefer to look at it as a $984 profit since I wouldn't have bet on these Arlington races without the contest; I try to play all the great contests you have at TwinSpires.com."

    To play Let 8 Ride, all a TwinSpires.com user has to do is place an $8 win wager on the eighth race on Thursday at Arlington Park. If successful, you can let it ride in race 8 on Friday when another success means guaranteed money ($500) on Saturday. Make it another day to Sunday and the guaranteed money doubles to $1,000.

     Although the $1,407 win bet didn't work out for Yokoyama, other wagers on Sunday did, as he connected on a Pick 5 at Hollywood Park that paid $3,646.45.

     "I wasn't going to pass up a 'free' $1,000 bet, so I let it ride. In what was clearly the biggest bet of my life, it made for an exciting day even though I lost, but the Pick 5 at Hollywood later in the day made the day even better," Yokoyama said. "I ended up using some of the winnings to buy a new, comfortable chair for my desk so I can spend hours watching TwinSpires.com on the computer.

     "Thanks again, and I appreciate all you provide to horse players."

     Let 8 Ride begins race 8 every Thursday at Arlington Park exclusively on TwinSpires.com.

  • Million eve (Friday at Arlington)

    POSTED Aug 17, 2012 By Unknown
    There are several interesting carryovers today at Arlington, and after handicapping the 9-race card I could definitely see either the dime Pick 9 or $1 Pick 6 carrying again. The Pick 5 is tough as well, but it's tougher to string consecutive carryovers in that bit because of the $.50 minimum (which I'm not against, it just makes double carryovers very rare).

    Here are my come and meet the Letter People A-B-C (D follow me) selections for the Million eve card.


    As you can see, I'm more confident (or at least willing to take a stand) in the early stages of the card than in the late. Both Pick 4s (the Brisnet.com early Pick 4 and TwinSpires.com late Pick 4) are manageable and very much on my radar, but the super exotic Pick 9, Pick 6 (races 4-9), and Pick 5 (races 5-9) are beyond my budget today. Have to save some ammo for tomorrow's all-stakes $100,000 guaranteed Pick 5, ya know?

    Speaking of that, Mark Johnson has analyzed tomorrow's sequence, and his input on the European invaders indispensable for the card. Click here to view his analysis of the inaugural American St. Leger and information on how to access his complete product as well as all the great Million day information available at Brisnet.com.

  • Giving money away

    POSTED Jul 25, 2012 By Unknown
    That cool breeze on a hot summer weekend of racing was the windfall some TwinSpires.com players experienced for Letting 8 Ride and Beating the Champ in two separate contests this summer worth tens of thousands of dollars.

    Not since week 1 of Let 8 Ride Delta Downs edition had players won more money than Brian B. & Dimitrije R. did by parlaying an $8 win bet on race 8 on Thursday, July 19, at Arlington into $1,322 each by Sunday, July 22.

    A new Let 8 RIde game starts Thursday at Arlington, and all you have to do to play is place an $8 win wager (multiple entries are accepted) on the eighth race (click here for free PPs). If your wager wins then you advance to Friday's eighth race. Advance to Saturday ($500) and Sunday ($1,000) for a chance to share in other prizes.

    Beat The Champ was similarly lucrative for 55 players who received 18k+ TSC Elite points each for beating the champ in the weekly prize and earned valuable dollars toward the contest's top prize of $5,000 for not only beating the champ but also all other players.

    The weekly game--with a share of 1-million points up for grabs for those who beat The Champ--starts each Saturday with a race each from Saratoga and Del Mar and continues through Sunday with two more races (one each from Saratoga and Del Mar). You must wager $10 to win on all designated races to qualify for the weekly prize.

    The summer-long game ends the final weekend of the Saratoga and Del Mar meetings, which means there's plenty of time to jump on it--especially since The Champ only accumulated $47 in winnings the first weekend. One 4-to-1 winner he doesn't have and you're already beating The Champ (scoring based on your first $10 win wager in the designated contest races).

  • The TCI weekend preview: Arlington, A Gleam, Del Oaks

    POSTED Jul 13, 2012 By Unknown
    `It's tough to look ahead to Saturday's races without also looking further ahead to next week when both Del Mar and Saratoga open and both Delaware Park and Colonial Downs roll out the marquee races of their meetings.

    But I have a keen interest in this weekend's roster because my best day of wagering last year came on Arlington Million Preview day at Arlington Park, and I really like the card again this year. Plus TwinSpires players get a 10% bonus (up to $500) on all winning Pick 4 wagers.

    The Pick 4s start in races 2 and 9, which is a shame because one of my best bets of the day is in race 6, the Modesty. I guess I'll have to make do with rolling Pick 3s involving She's All In, who returns to turf after winning four of eight on dirt.

    The two turf races on her PPs don't inspire from a speed standpoint, but she has clearly developed in the spring of her five-year-old year, and fourth behind the likes of It's Tricky and Awesome Maria is more an issue of her class than her form. The River Cities win last year was authoritative circling five wide into a slow pace. If she's moved forward off that she can win this at a nice price.

    The American Derby kicks off the Pick 5, and all eyes will be on Silver Max if he goes for his sixth consecutive win in here. He's the favorite I like best of all the stakes races, but stretching out again certainly poses some questions. If Silver Max gets completely hammered (odds on) then Daddy Nose Best could offer some value, but if bettors migrate too much to DNB as the logical alternative (especially returning to turf and Leparoux) then All Stormy could be the price horse to use.

    The Arlington Handicap and Stars and Stripes Stakes depend a lot on which cross entered horses go where, but no matter what I think the favorites are vulnerable in both spots, and I'm hoping Vertiformer goes to the Stars and Stripes so I can back him in that race while tabbing Sky Blazer in the Handicap. Vertiformer is an angles-player's dream third-off the layoff from Europe for Catalano and back to going really long if he's in the Stars and Stripes. Harrods Creek is also interesting as a pace threat around three turns. His San Juan was good.

    There is more to the weekend than Arlington, of course. The A Gleam earns the winner a spot in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, and the Delaware Oaks features the return of Grace Hall.

  • TwinSpires player scoops $71k Arlington Pick 9

    POSTED May 24, 2012 By Unknown

    Wayne Morgan never had an anxious moment on Wednesday at Arlington Park when cheering home his ninth winner of the Pick 9 sequence.

    One of his three picks, even money favorite Party Vision, opened a clear lead in the stretch, and the only two horses running late were the others on his ticket.

    Party Vision was one of five favorites to win on the nine-race card, including a quartet at 3-to-2 or less, so even with the $54,510 carryover going into Wednesday’s dime Pick 9, Morgan was not expecting a big pay day. Indeed, a $2 parlay on the nine winners would have returned about $25,000, which is only $1,250 for a dime.

    “I figured it’d be something because of the carryover, but I was thinking maybe a few thousand,” said Morgan whose two singles were even money favorite Mai Tai Mama in the first race and 3-to-2 favorite Dreams Die First in the fourth race. “I figured if I hit it on my ticket with all those favorites then other people probably did too.”

    Well, other people didn’t hit it, and Morgan’s $144 play returned $71,334.46 for nine of nine plus another $431.28 for a dozen eight-of-nine consolation tickets worth $35.94 each. By comparison the $1 Pick 6 returned $535.60 despite a parlay value of $835.21.

    “My only other big score was also on a Pick 9,” Morgan said. “That was a Place Pick 9 at Balmoral and paid about $5,000, so I’ve never experienced anything like this.”

    Morgan is a TSC Elite Gold member who wagers through TwinSpires.com and used TwinSpires.com’s mobile interface when placing his winning wagers on Wednesday. Still, the 59-year-old Air Force veteran and father of four says he enjoys making it to live racing when he can.

    “We’ve gone to the Trackside OTBs a few times, but Arlington is a real nice track,” said Morgan, who lives in Naperville, Illinois, about 28 miles southwest of Arlington Park. “I left work early on Wednesday so I could get out there. I’d be remiss if I didn’t thank Allison Sharfman [in Arlington marketing] for all her help when I attend the races or bring my family.”

    Morgan said that he takes a holistic approach to handicapping and doesn’t really favor any particular angle over another, though when pressed said he always takes class into consideration.

    “I like to look at the horses in the race and see what types of horses they’ve been running against—whether they’ve been facing better or worse than this race,” Morgan said.
    Morgan was alone as his score unfolded, and even though he thought he was probably sitting on a decent score going into the last race, he resisted the urge to call anyone because he didn’t want to jinx it. Even when he did call people, though, the veteran horseplayer said most didn’t believe him at first.

    “No one believed me when I told them how much I won on a dime bet,” Morgan said. “To tell the truth, I know it’s a lot of money, but it hasn’t sunk in yet just how much. I know we’ll find something to do with it, but we have no plans yet. I’m sure my kids are thinking of ways.”

    Morgan’s big score follows a similar windfall for TwinSpires players who took down the Solo 6 on April 17 at Sunland Park. One of those players, Julia Kring of Frankfort, Kentucky, hit the bet twice for $31,517.04 each way.