Showing posts with label show wagering. Show all posts
Showing posts with label show wagering. Show all posts

  • The parlay savant

    POSTED Jul 19, 2013 By Unknown
    He did it again.

    Just ten days after turning $16 into $1,000 in Let 8 Ride, Ryan Yokoyama turned $10 into $1,551 in TwinSpires.com's Summer Showdown promotion by going eight-for-eight on $10 show bets Thursday at Del Mar. Also scoring a perfecto for his show wagering was "TPB", whose octet paid $65 in show winnings plus $1,500 from Summer Showdown.

    There were six players live going into the last race on Thursday. Yokoyama chose eventual winner Te Rapa as his show play while "TPB" went with favored Tamarack Smarty, who just did surge past pacesetter Beachcombing to nab third and an extra $1,514 for "TBP."

    "I give more preference to stalkers/pressers in the show contest unless I feel a speed horse will get a favorable scenario and/or has the best numbers," Yokoyama said of his Summer Showdown strategy.

     The first race was the biggest score for Yokomama, as 5.2-to-1 Minds Eyes paid $5 to show. "TPB" had 5.8-to-1 winner Tasty Treat in that race for a $5.20 show payoff, but his biggest score was in race 5 when 10-to-1 Plus One finished second and paid $5.40 to show.

     "I really don't have a secret," Yokomama said. "I love playing the contests, so they get a little more attention. I'm looking forward to the VIP contest [on Saturday]."

     The jackpot for Thursday's card was $3,000 instead of $1,500 because nobody successfully navigated Wednesday's (opening day's) ten-race sequence. If no one is perfect, then that day's $1,500 carries over to the next day. I.e., if no one had showed 8 on Thursday, then today's pot would have been $4,500. Instead, it's $1,500 for the eight-race card that begins at 7 p.m. EDT, 4p PT.

    The only day the perfection provision is not in place is on Sundays when those who last the longest split the pot. The action remains at one track each week, so the contest is at Del Mar through Sunday before shifting to Saratoga on Wednesday, July 24.

  • Show me the carryovers!

    POSTED Jul 18, 2013 By Unknown
    The first of 34 Summer Showdown days is in the books, and nobody picked 10 (or 9 or 8) on the opening day program at Del Mar, which means there's $3,000 up for grabs today--$1,500 from Wednesday plus the guaranteed $1,500 every day.

     If you played yesterday don't get discouraged; today's task is easier since there is only eight races on the card. If you can pick a horse to show 50% of the time, then that 20% reduction in races makes you about four times more likely to sweep the card! We've doubled the money available, and your'e four times more likely to win it. Can't beat that! If you didn't play yesterday, then today is a great day to jump in because of the extra money.

     The other good news for those taking a run, is you won't have my pitiful show selections around to gum up your game. I was out after the first race yesterday, and only three of my ten picks managed to hit the board.

     However, even though my handicapping did not produce winners show horses, I stand behind the strategy because those who did connect early were playing with house money the rest of the day by virtue of all three show payoffs in the first race being more than $4. I.e., Any winning $10 show bet returned more than $20, so even after placing another $10 bet on race two, you were up on the day for that particular wager.

     Even better is that the average show price among the 30 horses to hit the board on the program was $4.60, and only one race (the second) did not include a horse who paid at least $4 to show. With judicious handicapping and selection, your show bets can make Summer Showdown a freeroll for $1,500 (or more!) every day through September 1!

     Of all the players who placed a $10 show wager on the first race, Richard L. lasted the longest with seven consecutive winning plays before dropping race 8 (a race that also tripped me up). If he makes it that far today AND nails that elusive eighth race then he'll win or share the $3,000.

     My focus today is on a carryover I am eligible for: the $12,903 carryover in the Pick 5 at Arlington International Racecourse. A pair of third choices on the morning lines are the key for me as single "A" picks: #1 Pranksterbdancing in Race 6 (leg 2) and #7 Tornadito in race 7 (leg 3).

     Pranksterbdancing looks to have a big pace edge on the field of lower level claimers and the opportunity to beat the logical 7-to-5 and 2-to-1 morning line choices could really boost the Pick 5 payout. Tornadito drops in and cuts back off a speed and fade job from an outside post in his debut.

  • Summer Showdown strategy: the longer you go the easier it gets

    POSTED Jul 17, 2013 By Unknown
    We've
    Been
    Through
    This
    Before:

     Winning one show bet is easy (or at least it's the easiest bet to hit). Stringing them together is not.
    But such is the task that awaits TwinSpires.com players looking to stake their claim at the $50,000 up for grabs in the Summer Showdown promotion that starts today with race 1 at Del Mar Thoroughbred Club.

     To win (or share) in each day's $1,500 prize, all you have to do is make a winning $10 show bet on every race of the card at the designated track (this week it's Del Mar, next week it'll be Saratoga; for a full schedule, click scheduled & results on this page).

     If nobody picks 8 (or 9 or 10 or 11 or 12) then that day's $1,500 prize carries over into the next day. Each week is its own contest, meaning that Sundays are must-win days. If nobody runs the table during the week then Sunday's prize is $7,500 split among those who run the table or last the longest.

     Each day's contest begins with race 1 at the designated track, and only your first $10 show wager counts, so you can't dutch or buy a race. Also--unlike Let 8 Ride--this is not a parlay contest, so if you advance to the next race be sure to do a $10 show bet on your selection before placing any other bets (i.e., you may want to parlay, and you can--just split your bets. E.g., you bet $10 to show on a horse who hits the board and pays $3.60 to show. If you want to "let it ride" by betting $18 on the next race first bet $10 to show then $8 to show).

     The title of this post alludes to my strategy if I were able to compete for the $50,000 in prizes. There are two considerations when making a wager: The likelihood of something happening, and the price you get if it does.

     Without the $1,500 (or more!) carrot each day, anyone wishing to bet $10 to show should do so on the horse s/he feels offers the best value in that pool, but adding a bonus for sweeping the card changes that dynamic somewhat.

     The balance is that you are making live bets, so after your first bet you're -$10. If that initial bet pays $4 then you're +$10 and it's now "free" to play the rest of the day. If you cash two $3 payoffs then race 3 on is free, etc. For that reason, unless there is an absolute lock in the first couple-few races, I'm still betting the value, but once you're in a spot where you're up $10, going for the $1,500 (or more!) is more important than cashing value.

     That's another riff on my Players Pool conundrum post from a few weeks ago: winning underlay or losing overlay. If you've hit nine show bets in a row today at Del Mar, I would hope you put your $10 on the horse most likely to hit the board--even if the value is terrible because the value for you isn't collecting that $2.20 payoff when it should be $3.00, but it's in hitting the $1,500 bonus.

     Some have asked how I would play today's races. I'm not eligible for any additional prizes, but there's nothing wrong with hitting some $10 show bets, so I gave it a go. Below is my ABC grid for opening day at Del Mar plus an extra column labeled "SHOW" that indicates the horse I would use on day 1 of the $50k Summer Showdown.

  • Road To the Derby $1-million Showdown

    POSTED Feb 20, 2013 By Unknown
    Look, I'm not going to sit here and tell you how easy it is to win $1-million playing TwinSpires.com's $1-million Road to the Derby Showdown.

    Sure, the show wager is the easiest bet to hit when playing the races, but 20 in a row on races we pick makes it a lot more difficult.

     Difficult. Not impossible.

    TwinSpires.com ran this promotion last year but required 23 consecutive winning $20 show bets--20 before the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands and then the three Triple Crown races. This year 20 total is the magic number, and if someone starts off with 17 in a row as was the case last year, then s/he would be a Show Crown away from $1-million.

     Again, easier said than done, but if winning a million dollars were easy anywhere (even the track) then you'd never have heard about a bet called the Rainbow^6. And it's not as if it hasn't almost been done. If five people can go 18/20 and one person can do 17 in a row, then 20/20 is doable.

    Really, though, the $1-million prize is just a nice bonus if you get lucky and run the table. The benefit of the Road to the Derby Showdown beyond the million is that you get to keep your winnings and take a run at both a guaranteed $10,000 prize pool for sweeping the Triple Crown and tickets to next year's Kentucky Derby for cashing the most show bets during this year's prep season.

     Because each of the prizes reward being right more than being smart, the proper strategy is to always select the starter you think is most likely to finish third or better. With--at minimum--a share of $10,000 up for grabs, it is pound foolish to try to find value in the show pool when playing this contest. Building shares should be your focus during the prep season with survival being essential during the Triple Crown (you only cash in on a share of the $10k if you hit all three classics).

     Last year 17 individual players split the $10,000 with 200 shares among them making each share worth $50. Mona Weaver was one of five players with 18 shares but the only one to sweep the Triple Crown to earn $900 for her efforts.

    This year, there will be 15% fewer races for building shares, and if the ratio stays the same then that means each share would be worth $54.05. At that price point, it's easy to see how hitting 10 bets at $2.20 makes more sense than 8 at $4.

     So fund your TwinSpires.com account, study up on this weekend's races (including watching the TCI video below), and start on your path toward $1-million!

  • 23 races and we'll make a big fuss

    POSTED Feb 21, 2012 By Unknown
    The TwinSpires.com Triple Crown Showdown is your classic game in which a simple task is made harder by repetition.

    Successfully pick one horse to show and maybe double your money; successfully pick 23 to show and win $1-million.

    Succeeding at picking a horse to show is the easiest bet to cash in horse racing. There are instances in which a horse has a 95% chance of finishing third or better. What adds to the challenge of the Triple Crown Showdown is that you don't get to pick your spots.

    Still, it's reasonable to expect that a good handicapper studying typically formful races (even if longshots have prevailed on the Derby Trail in the win spot the past two years, favorites don't necessarily tank) can successfully pick a horse to show at least 50% of the time.

    That $1-million prize might not seem like a lot for 23 consecutive even money horses, and at first blush the odds play that out. The chance that something with a 50% chance of happening (i.e. an even money shot) will happen 23 consecutive times is 8,388,607-to-1. Meaning a $20 show parlay across 23 races with each successful wager paying $4 would theoretically return $167-million, but you could never win that much money in the pari-mutuel system because by the time you got to through a dozen races you'd be creating minus show pools. Suddenly your $4 return comes back $2.10 or $2.20 depending on the state (e.g., Arkansas has a minimum payout of $2.20).

    And the better the prices you get early, the quicker you get to that diminishing returns threshold. If you somehow managed to find horses who paid $6 to show, you'd be creating minus pools by the eighth race in the sequence. This introduces an interesting dichotomy: So long as you're alive for the $1-million prize, the correct play is to take the horse most likely to hit the board, even if that horse offers the worst value to show in that particular race. Ultimately the value is in going for the $1-million, not for cashing 5-to-2 on a horse to show who should have been 2-to-1.

    The Risen Star kicks off the 23-race quest and illustrates the above paradox perfectly. El Padrino is clearly the horse most likely to hit the board, but questions about his ability to handle a fast surface and/or not to bounce off a freakish performance in allowance company while now contesting stakes foes are legitimate ones. He is likely to be an underlay in the win pool and at $2.40 to show doesn't really offer much value there, but survival is the name of the game to win the $1-million, so he's clearly the choice against this bunch to finish third or better.

    Of course, there's still plenty to play for even if you're out of the running for the $1-million, as $10,000 will be up for grabs for those who make at least one successful show wager among the 20 prep races AND sweep the Triple Crown series. So 23 straight winning show bets for $1-million or four winning show bets (including all three Triple Crown races) for a share in a $10,000 prize pool.

    For those wondering, the $1-million is paid out as a 40-year annuity or there is a cash option. Sadly, the winner will not receive a crisp $1-million bill, but if s/he did, we'd probably put Todd Pletcher's face on there.