• Triple Crown Insider weekend review

    POSTED By Unknown
    If it's possible for a Grade 2 win to get upstaged by an allowance race and a listed stake then that certainly happened this weekend with Gemologist winning the former and Street Life winning the latter before Secret Circle captured the Rebel Stakes.

    Triple Crown Insider talks about the weekend that was (or wasn't if you're either a Sabercat or a Najjar backer).

    MY TAKE: Gemologist certainly is who I thought he wasn't. In a year where fans have gone nuts over allowance wins (e.g., Animal Kingdom, Nehro) this was a legit eye opener for me considering I wasn't in Gemologist's camp at all, and I feel lucky to have only lost .75 units betting Currency Swap across the board. I moved Gemologist to eighth on my Top Ten Derby list off this effort.

    Street Life did not impress me as much. Some pointed to him running down a pacesetter who set soft fractions, and while that certainly made him best in the Broad Brush, I just don't see him as capable of running down a horse like Hansen or out-running Alpha or even Our Entourage on the far turn. Overall, I chalk it up to a horse looking impressive winning a slow race, but going forward that still makes the horse slow (e.g. Winter Memories).

    Secret Circle continues to impress as one of the most consistently fast members of his generation, but it's tough not to view his Rebel Stakes win as a regression considering it was his first-ever race not to eclipse the 100 BRIS Speed Rating threshold. That said, he never really looked comfortable out there and still won.

    More importantly for 17 players in the TwinSpires.com Triple Crown SHOWdown promotion, Secret Circle keyed a trifecta that included Scatman, and everyone who was alive for the $1-million prize going into the week still is.

    The Spiral Stakes and Sunland Derby are this weekend, and the winners of each race will have enough earnings to get into the Derby, which means six weeks of "Can <insert name of Spiral winner here> be the next Animal Kingdom?" and "Can <insert name of 4th-place Sunland Derby finisher here> be the next Mine That Bird?"

  • Cotolo’s Harness Review

    POSTED Mar 17, 2012 By Frank Cotolo
    A top-feature score at a big price highlighted our successes this weekend and a few horses to watch and tweets brought up the bankroll.  

    Our analysis of the Four Lear Clover at the Meadowlands on St. Patty’s Day was perfect and we had all the luck in Ireland in the stretch, where our horse, Art Z, won despite being pinched late. 

    Art Z paid a gigantic $34.80. This made up for our Friday night flops in two finals and two divisions of a series. As well, we lost the other Saturday feature to the public choice. 

    After last weeks review, on Sunday, March 11, tweets @RayCotolo delivered a bomb at Flamboro when Bed Shy’s victory was worth $56.20. There was also Lexi’s Electra on the winning docket, though he only paid $6.10.     

    At Cal Expo, our no-takeout Pick 4 had a scratch, reducing its cost. We still nabbed the first two winners with Indelible ($4) and Jane The Brain ($5.20). 

    Then, something strange happened. On our Cal-Expo horses-to-watch list (H2W) we were looking for Poorlittlerichgirl to come back. However, we did not include her in the third leg of the March 16 Pick 4 along with Barona Hickory and Code Blue, who finished second and last with a break, respectively. Poorlittlerichgirl was, no matter, a win bet off of the H2W list and her victory resulted in a win price of $64.20.  

    We missed the last leg, a 2-1 shot. Poorlittlegirl’s contribution to the exotic pumped up the Pick-4 price to $586.20.      

    Saturday afternoon @RayCotolo punched out one winner at Flamboro with a tweet, Max Lou ($11.50). Saturday evening at Lebanon (posted at the TwinSpires Facebook page, we had only one winner, Jen Finn ($3.40). The others, one which was second and one which was third (the other two were well off the board) remain on the H2W list for next week. 

    Join our Twitter team, it’s free and delivering a lot of valuable win bets which you can use for flat win, place or show bets and in all exotic flavors available at the tracks were we are handicapping. Follow Frank and Ray Cotolo at Twitter and wager from TwinSpires.

    Harness News

    Ninety-four of the continent’s top Free-For-All pacers in training have been nominated for Yonkers Raceway’s $1-million (est.) Blue Chip Matchmaker (femmes) and $1.5- million (est.) George Morton Levy Memorial Pacing Series (males).  

    The 2012 Matchmaker attracted 43 mares, including Anndrovette, who this last weekend won the Overbid Final at the Meadowlands. An Overbid-leg winner and last year’s Lady Maud winner, Rocklamation, and this season’s winner of the Cape & Cutter, Symphony in Motion, as well as JK Owhatanite, Pancleefandarpels (who won this event in 2009) and 2010 series champ, Ginger and Fred, and the four-year-old See You at Peelers are also poised to perform.  

    The “Levy” features 51 pacing stalwarts, like the 2011 series champion, Real Nice, and multi-millionaire Foiled Again, who won the two previous Levy crowns. The Levy series begins March 24 with the first of weekly legs worth $50,000 each until the final on April 28.   

    The Matchmaker begins March 23 with events going for $40,000 each until it complements Levy-final night with its conclusion. 

    Yonkers' five-night-per-week (Monday,Tuesday,Thursday,Friday and Saturday) live schedule continues. First post for all programs remains at 7:10 p.m. 


     (Cartoon by Thom Pye)

  • Rebel weekend video previews

    POSTED By Unknown
    It's another exciting racing on the Triple Crown trail, as the road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands winds through Hot Springs, Arkansas, for the $500,000 Rebel Stakes.

    However, another big race on the docket is an $80,000 allowance race on Friday at Gulfstream featuring the three-year-old debuts of undefeated graded stakes winner Gemologist and Currency Swap.

    I discussed these two races with Triple Crown Insider and have one strong opinion: that Currency Swap will defeat Gemologist at what I figure will be overlaid odds on my selection (3-to-2 seems more than fair).


    I'm less bullish on the Rebel because it's the precarious situation where the most likely winner (Secret Circle) will be overbet, and the other two I could make a case for (Cyber Secret and Scatman) might be overbet as well.

    I don't anticipate the win pool to offer any value even with horses like Sabercat and Najjaar figuring to be underlays along with Secret Circle, but the exacta could if you share my opinion that Sabercat and Najjaar will be overbet in all pools. Even if Secret Circle is overvalued to win, he could still key some nice exotics with Cyber Secret or Scatman underneath.

    Toga the Tout agrees with me on Secret Circle being the most likely winner, but goes off course from me to tab his underneath horses.



    The Rebel is race nine in the 23-race Triple Crown SHOWdown series at TwinSpires.com, and 17 players still alive for the $1-million bonus by having selected eight consecutive show horses to date. Even if you're not alive for the $1-million, though, there is still a chance to win a share of a $10,000 prize pool that will go to those who make successful show bets on each of the Triple Crown races.

  • Defining Class

    POSTED Mar 15, 2012 By Derek Simon
    Among the great mysteries that handicappers face every time they analyze a race is how to assess class. Unlike their human counterparts, there is no easy way to determine which horses have it and which horses don’t.

    Thoroughbreds don’t star in reality TV shows; they don’t accuse each other of infidelity on the “The Jerry Springer Show;” they aren’t named Snooki. Actually, that last bit isn’t true. There was a horse named Snooki, but the daughter of Empire Maker never made it to the races (contrary to what Stephen Hawking believes, this clearly proves the existence of a higher intelligence).

    The point is: evaluating class isn’t easy… but that hasn’t stopped folks from trying.

    Dr. William Quirin demanded that a horse show him the money. In “Winning at the Races: Computer Discoveries in Thoroughbred Handicapping.” Dr. Quirin ranked each horse by its average earnings per start to determine class.

    Here’s what he found:

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    From an ROI standpoint, the top-ranked horse in average earnings per start fared about as well as the top betting choice in Quirin’s time (late 1970s, early 1980s).

    And those numbers have held up fairly well in the new millennium, which is somewhat surprising given the preponderance of state-bred bonuses, specially carded races and casino-enhanced purses we see these days.

    Using my database, which is comprised of a variety of races run from 2004-present, I discovered the following:

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    While top-ranked horses performed worse, the second- and third-ranked contenders performed considerably better than they did three decades ago.

    It gets better.

    Look at what happened when I insisted that the top EPS horses also have the best last-race speed rating, a recent outing (within the past 20 days) and at least five starts over the past two years:

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    Notice that such horses did even better than favorites, proving that it does indeed make sense (and a few dollars) to pay attention to the money trail.

    Havre de Grace Returns to the Races

    Havre de Grace appears poised to set a record for generating the largest negative pool in the history of pari-mutuel wagering (just a guess) when she makes her 2012 debut on Saturday.

    The defending Horse of the Year is scheduled to face four rivals in the New Orleans Ladies Stakes at Fair Grounds in what may be the biggest mismatch — at least on paper — since a 2007 boxing bout featuring future super welterweight champion Yoshihiro Kamegai and referee Ukrid Sarasas.

    Consider:

    * Havre de Grace earned an average of $231,857 per start last year — about 50% more than the entire purse value of the New Orleans Ladies Stakes and 10 times more than her closest rival (Juanita) averaged over the past two years.

    * The lowest Brisnet speed figure (BSF) that Havre de Grace earned last year (104 in the Beldame) is still about six lengths superior to the career-best BSF of any of her opponents.

    * Larry Jones’ stable star won three Grade I races, including the Woodward against males, and two Grade II affairs in 2011. Among her rivals on Saturday, only the aforementioned Juanita has won any graded races at all (Juanita captured the Grade II Indiana Oaks versus three-year-olds last year).

    Of course, much the same could have been said about Rachel Alexandra when this race was written for her in 2010... and she was upset by Zardana.

    Weekend Win Factor Plays

    Friday (03/16/12)

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    COMMENTS: CHIEF BEAR is a Win Factor Report “Key Selection.”
    SUGGESTED WAGER(S): Win on 3 at even (1-1) odds or greater.

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    COMMENTS: A AND GS ASTREOS is a Win Factor Report “Speed Racer.”
    SUGGESTED WAGER(S): Win on 5 at even (1-1) odds or greater.

    Click HERE to get a free Win Factor Report for Friday's Woodbine Harness program.

    Saturday (03/17/12)

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    COMMENTS: Although this is a highly contentious race — and, worse, a rider’s race — I’m going to take a shot with NORMAN ASBJORNSON if the price is right. Simply put, the early splits will tell the tale of this event. If the pace is slow, all bets are off (figuratively speaking, unfortunately). REDDING COLLIERY is dangerous when allowed to carve out easy fractions, as he proved last time (105 Brisnet speed figure following a -4 ESR) and INHERIT THE GOLD absolutely loves to stalk a soft pace. The son of Gold Token won his penultimate race when the early leader recorded a -2 ESR, yet was defeated — at odds-on, no less — in his most recent outing following a -10 ESR pace. Still, there is a lot of early zip in this field, so it will come down to the jockeys’ perception of the splits. That’s not a comforting thought, but I’ll roll the dice if “Norman,” an improving type who should relish faster fractions, is 5-1 or better.

    SUGGESTED WAGER(S): Win on 6 at odds of 5-1 or greater.

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    COMMENTS: Obviously, HAVRE DE GRACE looks tons the best on paper, but there may be value in the secondary pools and the exotics. Hence, I’ll be keying STERLING MADAME in the New Orleans Ladies. JUANITA is likely to draw the bulk of the cash after the defending Horse of the Year garners her 80+ percent share of the pool(s), but I think “Madame” is faster. If jockey James Graham denies Juanita the early lead, I think the daughter of Mineshaft is toast. Even if he doesn’t, however, I still prefer Sterling Madame over anything else in the (remainder) of the field.

    SUGGESTED WAGER(S): PLACE on 1 if Havre de Grace controls at least 75% of the place pool and/or SHOW on 1 if Havre de Grace controls at least 75% of the show pool.

    Derek Simon’s 2012 Free Selection Stats

    Races (Selections): 21 (21)
    Wins: 6
    Rate: 28.6%
    Return: $24.60
    ROI: -41.43%

    (This year's published selections through 3/10/2012.)

  • Luck ‘O The Meadowlands

    POSTED Mar 14, 2012 By Frank Cotolo
    It feels like another time. Not just because of unseasonable weather that defies the groundhog’s claim there would be an extended winter, but because the Meadowlands is the sole platform over the weekend for the sport’s highlight events. We can all thank our St. Patrick’s Day lucky stars for Jeff Gural and company, for making the Meadowlands thrive as a private enterprise after a political debacle.  

    Three-year-old-plus trotters get rolling in the Horse & Groom, soph-filly trotters surface for their first big-money test in the Syrinx Hanover and three- and four-year-old filly and mare pacers grace the Night Styles. And that is just on Friday, March 16. 

    On Saturday, March 17, when everyone becomes Irish, so to speak, the Four Leaf Clover Final partners with the Overbid Final on the holiday program.   

    Although no features are focused upon at Woodbine, players on TwinSpires continue to collect TSC Elite points at the rate of 10X with successful $10 win tickets.   

    At Cal-Expo on Friday, we take another stab at the exclusive TwinSpires-Cal-Expo no-takeout Pick 4.   

    Tough Trio


    Friday’s three features include four races: the $82,000 Horse & Groom and $37,000 Syrinx Hanover finals and two adventures of the Night Styles. 

    The Horse & Groom Final presents a good chance for an upset with the 10 horse, Ice Machine. Now conditioned by Walter Carroll and introduced to Yannick Gingras in the sulky this evening, last year’s top soph-colt trotter in the early season shows all signs of maturity. Having won the first leg of this event and then burdened with post 10 last week, Ice Machine demands respect here. Last week’s mile was more like he won at three, storming late from behind. He gained 2 lengths to be fourth. If you gauge his win the week before that you see he is capable of a brush that can overcome the outside start. In Canada’s Don Mills events last month he faced far tougher than these foes. 

    We expect this four-year-old season to be huge for Ice Machine. Barring any unforeseen circumstances, veteran owner Robert Key may be looking at a big bankroll in the older division of trotters, rich with events throughout the season. 

    The Syrinx Hanover displays glamour-girl-division trotters in a conditioned event that may or may not involve heroines of the season. The steadily unreliable gait of these gals is cause for some alarm but add to that the choices getting the outside posts here and it shouldn’t surprise anyone if this turns into a steeplechase. That being said, we like the chances of After Midnight.  

    After Midnight leaves from post 7 with her main rivals farther outside of her. She has speed and last week tried to use it early, getting the lead and being caught late by ½ length to get the third spot. All signs lead to her being the third choice but worth that price and maybe less. 

    The second leg of the Night Styles contest offers a pair of division. In the first, we support Beforethedaystarts. Charging far too early and forced to stay outside, Beforethedaystarts hung tough and gained attempting to find the top spot before flattening out. Still she finished only 2 lengths off the leader for the fourth check.  

    In chapter two that night, Weekend Update may not be your first choice but could be a good bet as your second and even third. These are short fields so don’t expect outlandish odds on any gal.   

    Green Day


    The $78,400 Four Leaf Clover Final on March 17 can produce an upset if last week’s trip from Art Z can be interpreted as a choice mile. The pacer went first up for Ron Pierce and finished fourth at 11-1. The two public choices were at the wire together in that one, setting up a scenario that could pit them against one another again in the stretch. With a kinder, ground-saving trip, Art Z could be right there to pass them and get to the wire first.   

    Last week the early choice to sweep the Overbid, Higher And Higher, was ignored after losing the first leg and went off at 12-1. That was a major mistake by the public, still enamored by the likes of Put On A Show and Anndrovette, as Higher And Higher stormed to victory. There is no reason to feel she will not win again, though asking anywhere near that price would make you fit for a straightjacket. Even though lightning won’t strike the toteboard twice, Higher And Higher may not be the favorite, making her a precious second or third choice.  

    Four Ron Burke-trained mares will again contest the strength of Higher And Higher and for exotic purposes, though she be coupled, Fred And Ginger should be the prime reason to use the entry. If Tea Party Princess goes as a separate entity, she could finish a triple play, though I would criss-cross the place and show elements.

    Cal Exotic

    The March 16 no-takeout Pick 4 at Cal-Expo brings together four groups on the Friday program (this time we have the correct four races on the correct date). 

    Leg 1
    (4) Indelible left no particularly sharp impression with his third-place finish last week but we have to ignore that in lieu of strong support at the windows. (10) Precious Few is the key to opening this exotic with a huge price. Last week he made two powerful moves in contention through the mile, being wide to start for the lead, ducking and coming out again later to be hung challenging to regain the top. This was the performance of a horse let off at 53-1, so the post tonight does not frighten me.

    Leg 2
    (6) Jane The Brain was the only one in this group to show forward motion in her most recent effort and on that alone gets the nod. 

    Leg 3
    Two strong comebacks loom boldly in this field. (7) Code Blue raced a hole in the Sacramento wind last week, making up humungous ground without major collapsing on the front. As well, (8) Barona Hickory won with a first-over move that did not cause any loss of ground in the end.

    Leg 4
    (5) Wrangler Reward has been threatening a major win of late and was all out last week with a strong start. Unfortunately he had to use that speed while in the second tier and that cost him the first two spots. Hanging on for third in a race where he was hanging badly, however, is impressive, no less at 7-1. 

  • TCI Weekend Review: Super San Felipe, Tepid Tampa

    POSTED By Unknown
    Differing opinions drive Thoroughbred racing, or at least betting on it, but there was not much debate regarding the results of this past weekend's Kentucky Derby prep races and what the means for the Triple Crown trail going forward.
    Joel Cunningham and Jon Siegel with Triple Crown Insider called the San Felipe Stakes "the best prep so far this season" and called Take Charge Indy's scratch from the Tampa Bay Derby "disappointing." It's pretty telling what they thought of the Tampa Bay Derby as run when their main talking point dealt with who scratched rather than who ran.



    MY TAKE: Well, I agree with almost everything they said. Take Charge Indy's scratch is puzzling, Creative Cause reasserted himself as among the West Coast's best (I have I'll Have Another ranked slightly higher, but those two plus Bodemeister are clearly beyond any others), and the Sam F. Davis Stakes and Tampa Bay Derby are both in serious danger of downgrading.

    On a macro level, one of the more consistent ideas on the Derby trail each year is that changing course is almost always a bad thing. Take Charge Indy's scratch for a race three weeks later makes no sense to me unless something is wrong. Facing Union Rags, El Padrino, and Alpha is preferred to the Tampa Bay Derby field from the ten hole (although the top two finishers were post positions 1 & 2!)?

    And Bodemeister, for as good as he ran, was an 11th-hour replacement for Fed Biz, who is now off the trail completely. As Joel and Jon discussed in the video above, trainer Bob Baffert himself said that racing Bodemeister a week earlier than originally planned may have hurt. This colt is an obvious talent, however, and that Baffert was willing to race him a week earlier rather than delay his start is a big mark in his corner.

    As the horses were going to the gate for the Tampa Bay Derby I asked on Twitter what fair odds would be of any starter in the race winning the Kentucky Derby. Answers ranged from 50- to 300-to-1. Given that Prospective is almost certain for a spot in the gate, I wouldn't want to go any lower than 75-to-1, but the true odds are probably in the 150- to 200-to-1 range given the slowness of the competitors.

    As for the San Felipe, I wouldn't want to offer any more than 5-to-1 on that group, which puts Creative Cause at around 10-to-1 for the roses, Bodemeister at 12-to-1, and the field at 100-to-1 with a 6.5% takeout.

  • Cotolo’s Harness Review

    POSTED Mar 10, 2012 By Frank Cotolo
    The winners came with enough paying power to make the weekend a success. However, the best came as updates to the blog, while tweeting a few tracks, including Flamboro, the Meadowlands and Woodbine on Saturday.  

    Woodbine tweets were supporting players on TwinSpires for bonus points. As well, the TSC Elite points are going for 10X with winning $10 tickets at Woodbine again next Saturday. 

    At Cal Expo, the no-takeout Pick 4, now held on Friday, paid a mere $110. Due to a clerical error, we offered suggestions for the last four races on Saturday. At press time the results for Saturday were not available, so later we will update our report on which horses went well in the races we chose. 

    From our H2W list at Cal-Expo, however, two horses came back to win. Hollywood Lenny paid $15 and Dawnlikeslillies paid $5.80. 

    If you were following Ray and me on Twitter Saturday afternoon you saw two big wins at Flamboro. We gave out Greek Shark ($24.30) and Cash Le Ru ($24.90) in two straight heats, races 3 and 4.  

    At Woodbine that night, we struck with Camae’s Fellow at $7.80 and Rose Run Limbo at $6.30. At the Meadowlands chalk ruled except for our winner, E Street Plan, at $31.20. We hit the Four Leaf Clover leg but so did everyone with Fools Gold at $3.80. 

    Our Friday night choice in the Overbid leg, Rock N Soul, finished sixth. Amazingly enough, we mentioned the threat of last week’s failed favorite, Higher And Higher, and he returned to win this week paying a whopping $25. Tea Party Princess, who was not coupled with the other Ron Burke entries, was second. We thought she would be a part of the entry with Rock N Soul, which went off at a paltry 2-1. So, as we always emphasize, you must take our suggestions and weigh them as the actual betting ensues. 

    Join our Twitter team. Follow Frank and Ray Cotolo for close-to-post choices at any number of tracks broadcast at TwinSpires.

    Harness News

    Live harness racing action returned to Rosecroft Raceway on Saturday, March 10, with a first post of 7:25 p.m. Racing takes place Tuesdays and Saturdays through June 2. 

    This being the start, it is best you keep your own records on which trainers are successful. Watch for the quiet ones, those winning with horses that fool the public; chances are they will pull off a few upsets in the first few weeks. 

    Penn National Gaming purchased the track, which was closed in 2008. Rosecroft was once part of the thriving Washington, D.C.-area circuit which included Freestate Raceway and Ocean Downs (the latter still in operation).  

    Some famous horses, including Presidential Ball, Cam’s Card Shark, CR Kay Suzie and Jenna’s Beach Boy still hold speed records at the five-eighths oval.   

    The George Teague barn was prepping some of its headliners in qualifying races at Dover Downs. Teague sent out nine for their 2012 debut. They include Custard The Dragon (which brought this department a few big wins last season), Feel Like A Fool and Wink N Atcha. The other Teague winners worthy of watching in their first few this year were Wind Me Up, Whirl Monroe, Four Starzzz Girl and Sing Out. 

    Chester Downs is open for another season. There is a new wagering format this year, with superfectas offered on all the even-numbered races. The superfecta at Chester is a 50-cent based wager that offers a carryover pool. 

    The Pick 4 debuts March 11 with a $5,000 guaranteed pool as a member of the USTA’s Strategic Wagering Program.  

    Chester races Wednesdays through Sundays with a 12:40 p.m. post.


     (Cartoon by Thom Pye)

  • Triple Crown Insider Weekend Preview

    POSTED Mar 9, 2012 By Unknown
    The TCI boys are back ahead of a big weekend of Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands prep races, so check out the valuable insight and then head on over to Road to the Roses to change your power horses and TwinSpires.com to participate in rounds 6, 7, & 8 of Triple Crown SHOWdown, featuring 133 people still alive for the $1-million top prize and everyone else playing for a share of $10,000 by sweeping show bets on the Derby, Preakness, and Belmont.

    As you'll hear in the Triple Crown Insider video below, I had thought the Tampa Bay Derby was as easy as TCI, but then trainer Pat Byrne said Friday afternoon that he planned to scratch Take Charge Indy in favor of the Florida Derby in three weeks. Now it's an inscrutable 11-horse scramble that leaves entry-level allowance winner Spring Hill Farm as the most likely favorite with Prospective and Battle Hardened the logical choices as well. While I certainly envy the position the 133 players are in who could win $1-million, I don't envy the choice they now have to make for show in the Tampa Bay Derby. Take Charge Indy was a gimme. I'll be cheering for Prospective (200-to-1 future wager) and Chief Energy (a fantasy team horse plus he's by Ghostzapper).


    On the plus side, TCI's scratch makes room for another San Felipe entrant on my Road to the Roses Power Stable. I'm bullish on the West Coast talent this year and loaded my stable up with SoCal stars thinking some would ship out, but five of them (Bodemeister, Creative Cause, Empire Way, Midnight Transfer, and Rousing Sermon) ended up in this spot. I'll use EW, MT, and RS in a contrarian manner.

    And for more on the San Felipe Stakes, check out Toga Tout where everyone's favorite stable deep throat lists Creative Cause and Midnight Transfer as his top picks with some love for Blingo and Liaison as well.