• Most likely winners of a Breeders' Cup race

    POSTED Jul 16, 2012 By Unknown
    You know it's a slow weekend at the races when your review leads off with the Breeders' Cup Marathon division, but so it goes in the final days leading up to the Saratoga and Del Mar meetings.


    Redeemed is a suitable topic to kick off this week's TCI, however, because he also kicks off my list of Top Four most likely Breeders' Cup winners. This is not a list of who I think is the best horses in training, who will win Horse of the Year, or any of that. This is a list of who I think are the most likely winners of their respective Breeders' Cup races. Another way to look at it is, who are the most deserving favorites in Breeders' Cup races?

    The most likely winner of a Breeders' Cup race is Reedemed in the Breeders' Cup Marathon. His Greenwood Cup victory marked his third consecutive triumph, and all three have come with BRIS speed ratings of at least 102. The Marathon has not been kind to favorites in its short history, but Redeemed looks like a true star in a division that usually lacks them.


    #2 on the list is Groupie Doll, a two-time Grade 1 winner already this year who defeated defending Filly and Mare Sprint winner and eventual Princess Rooney winner Musical Romance already this year. Any repeat of her performances at either Keeneland and Churchill makes her a winner in November, and nothing we saw in the A Gleam would challenge her either.

    #3 Executive Privilege has the looks of a two-year-old Baffert superstar on par with a Silverbulletday or Indian Blessing. I.e., the Racing Hall of Fame trainer knows how to keep these juveniles firing their best shots, and sweeping the Debutante, Oak Leaf, and Breeders' Cup certainly seems possible.

    I'll take a little creative license with my #4 slot and call it for either Camelot or St. Nicholas Abbey in the Breeders' Cup Turf. St. Nicholas Abbey already won this race last year and has come back strong this year, but his Ballydoyle stablemate would probably be 1-to-2 in the Turf and #1 on this list if he decides to come over. So with the uncertainty I'll rank the Aidan O'Brien-trained duo fourth.

    I'll expand the list as the year goes on, and we have a better sense of which horses are pointing where. One thing this list does not reward is contentious divisions since an evenly matched group makes it more difficult to definitively select a winner. The Classic contenders, for instance, are better than any horses on this list with the exception of O'Brien's duo, but to say that Game On Dude (who I ranked #1 on my America's Best Racing poll) is a more likely winner of the Classic than Redeemed is in the Marathon seems folly to me.

  • Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes

    POSTED Jul 14, 2012 By Frank Cotolo
    At the Meadowlands the world of pacing and trotting focused on the Meadowlands Pace and a card filled with talented colts and fillies as well as a stream of top-notch veterans on Saturday, July 14.  

    While the pundits and experts tossed around scenarios, we centered on the colt with more talent than the public has afforded over the sophomore season thus far. Because of that, we nailed A Rocknroll Dance, who won the “Pace” in 1:48.1, paying $11.40.  

    If you were with us through the entire prediction you made note of the three colts we picked to be immediately behind him. One of them, Pet Rock, who we had in the “Rooney” and were watching closely as he made his way to that win, was second. That exacta paid $125.60 for $2. (The other possible seconds we gave were Bolt The Duer and Thinking Out Loud.) 

    In the Hanovers at Illinois’ Balmoral Park, we took home a single win of four tries with Our Dragon King, paying $8.60.  

    At Pocono Downs there were more sophomore colt trotter divisions of the Pennsylvania All Stars. These Hambletonian eligibles’ battles and others—Stanley Dancer and Del Miller at the Meadowlands—are available at our exclusive Hambletonian Trail blog. We preview races through the weeks for both divisions with Hambo dreams as the deadline for dropping in the box looms boldly. The reviews of those events and archives of all that has happened since May are at the Hambletonian Society site.

    Also, we invite you to enjoy our musings on other standardbred topics at my Hoof Beats blog titled Vast Performances. Every weekend as part of that blog we we offer Balmoral Pick-4-and-win picks at the USTA’s Strategic Wagering Program page which includes suggested win bets. Last week we hit with Blueridgevalentino at $6.80. 

    Connect to Twitter and follow Frank and Ray Cotolo for up-to-the-minute suggestions on wagers at many harness raceways. Then, wager from TwinSpires.  

    Get onto our mailing list. We’re beginning to contact people with information to help you play for profit. By clicking here you will be added to the list and be secure as a member (we do not share the emails with anyone). Free stuff is coming your way.

    News And Notes

    The Meadowlands Pace left a few questions afloat, one which certainly involves Sweet Lou. He wasn’t the post-time favorite, a surprise to many. Thinking Out Loud went off the public choice, at 2-1. After winning his elim, Sweet Lou returned to favor among a lot of bettors but the post-time favorite, who also won the North America Cup and had a traffic problem with Pet Rock in his Pace elim, became the most-likely-to-win for punters.

    Allstar Legend, who finished third at 99-1, will be taken more seriously next time as his Pace race was dynamic. No one expected him to fire out of the 10-hole spot the way he did, finding a good spot to suck along and reserve some energy. That trip allowed “Legend” to finish third and complete a triple that few wagered would include him.

    Bolt The Duer was the “now” horse for a lot of bettors and he disappointed all of his supporters by seeing them all go over the finish line before him. Heston Blue Chip, the other elim winner, struggled wide late to catch the fourth check. Time To Roll proved not to be in this league, which was our suspicion as reported in last week’s blog.

    In upcoming blogs, as we continue to follow the division through many more featured stakes, we will offer exclusive comments from conditioners about all the major and minor participants.

    With three weeks still to pass before the 2012 Hambletonian, eyebrows are raising about frosh-colt trotter, Tirade Hanover. He is from the first crop of Crazed, who was second in the Hambletonian to the great Deweycheatemnhowe. His recent win at Vernon Downs got the attention of the industry as he won last week in the opening leg of the New York Sire Stakes for his division in 1:57.

    Tirade Hanover is trained by Tyler Raymer. The colt cost a measely $10,000 as a yearling and has shown a high level of professionalism from day one. “I think probably the biggest strength he has is he’s good mannered,” says veteran driver Howard Parker. “He's got a good turn of foot.”

    Glamour-boy pacers are poised for the next big feature in their division. The $650,000 (est.) Delvin Miller Adios eliminations are set for Saturday, July 21, with the final to go the following Saturday.

    Remember Shadyshark Hanover? We were hot on him as a sophomore but he didn’t turn out as productive as we had hoped. Shadyshark Hanover did become the fastest three-year-old in North America in 2011 coming off of a burning pace on Hambo day (he never recreated such speed on his own). The four-year-old is done racing. He has been purchased for stud duties in Australia and will stand his first season at the Morley Park stud, Shepparton.



    Cartoon by Thom Pye

  • The TCI weekend preview: Arlington, A Gleam, Del Oaks

    POSTED Jul 13, 2012 By Unknown
    `It's tough to look ahead to Saturday's races without also looking further ahead to next week when both Del Mar and Saratoga open and both Delaware Park and Colonial Downs roll out the marquee races of their meetings.

    But I have a keen interest in this weekend's roster because my best day of wagering last year came on Arlington Million Preview day at Arlington Park, and I really like the card again this year. Plus TwinSpires players get a 10% bonus (up to $500) on all winning Pick 4 wagers.

    The Pick 4s start in races 2 and 9, which is a shame because one of my best bets of the day is in race 6, the Modesty. I guess I'll have to make do with rolling Pick 3s involving She's All In, who returns to turf after winning four of eight on dirt.

    The two turf races on her PPs don't inspire from a speed standpoint, but she has clearly developed in the spring of her five-year-old year, and fourth behind the likes of It's Tricky and Awesome Maria is more an issue of her class than her form. The River Cities win last year was authoritative circling five wide into a slow pace. If she's moved forward off that she can win this at a nice price.

    The American Derby kicks off the Pick 5, and all eyes will be on Silver Max if he goes for his sixth consecutive win in here. He's the favorite I like best of all the stakes races, but stretching out again certainly poses some questions. If Silver Max gets completely hammered (odds on) then Daddy Nose Best could offer some value, but if bettors migrate too much to DNB as the logical alternative (especially returning to turf and Leparoux) then All Stormy could be the price horse to use.

    The Arlington Handicap and Stars and Stripes Stakes depend a lot on which cross entered horses go where, but no matter what I think the favorites are vulnerable in both spots, and I'm hoping Vertiformer goes to the Stars and Stripes so I can back him in that race while tabbing Sky Blazer in the Handicap. Vertiformer is an angles-player's dream third-off the layoff from Europe for Catalano and back to going really long if he's in the Stars and Stripes. Harrods Creek is also interesting as a pace threat around three turns. His San Juan was good.

    There is more to the weekend than Arlington, of course. The A Gleam earns the winner a spot in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, and the Delaware Oaks features the return of Grace Hall.

  • Del Mar & Saratoga Handicapping Primer

    POSTED Jul 12, 2012 By Derek Simon
    With the summer’s marquee race meetings — Saratoga and Del Mar — now just mere days away, I thought I would take a look at both and (hopefully) offer some handicapping insights:

    Del Mar
    July 18-Sept. 5
    (Click on image to enlarge)
    JOCKEY TO WATCH

    Hector Berrios: A champion rider in his homeland of Chile, Berrios won his first race in the U.S. at Del Mar last year and is especially potent aboard two-year-olds and longshots. Since coming to America, the 25-year-old reinsman has a 29 percent ROI on horses with 10-1 odds or higher and a 116 percent ROI on juveniles.

    TRAINER TO WATCH

    Bob Baffert: Hasn’t won a Del Mar training title since 2003, when he won his seventh in a row. Nonetheless, the veteran conditioner is one to keep an eye on, especially when he’s got a two-year-old running. Last year, Baffert saddled five juvenile winners from just 24 starters at the seaside oval — good for a 6.3 percent ROI.

    NOT WORTH A SHIP

    Horses that last raced at Turf Paradise, Calder, Saratoga, Prairie Meadows or Lone Star Park were a combined 0-for-39 at Del Mar in 2011.

    FAVORITES

    Not surprisingly given the quality of horses running, Del Mar produces a healthy percentage of winning favorites, especially in claiming races.

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    TRACK BIAS

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    Unlike Santa Anita and Hollywood Park, which favor early runners, Del Mar is all about the closers. Whereas 42 percent of all six-furlong races run at Hollywood Park through July 8 have been captured in wire-to-wire fashion, just 24 percent of such races were won in similar style at Del Mar last season.

    On the lawn it’s even worse, as just 16 percent of all turf routes were won by horses leading from flag fall to finish.

    Hence, it pays to look for stretch runners where the surf meets the turf, particularly if they ran well at Santa Anita or Hollywood Park. 

    Also, watch for Golden Gate shippers. The surface of that Northern California track is similar to Del Mar’s and many horses run better than their inferior class lines might otherwise suggest.

    Saratoga
    July 20-Sept. 3
    (Click on image to enlarge)
    JOCKEY TO WATCH

    Eddie Castro: A consistent rider who is particularly adept on longshots (23 percent ROI on horses with 10-1 odds or greater this year). What’s more, he’s dynamite when riding for Kiaran McLaughlin (40 percent winning rate over the past two years).

    TRAINER TO WATCH

    Chad Brown: Typically points for the Saratoga meeting and is deadly with horses dropping in class. He’s also very good at stretching horses out in distance or shortening them up. And when the blinkers come off? Head to the windows; since 2006, Brown has scored with 44 percent of his starters that are removing their eyewear.

    NOT WORTH A SHIP

    Animals that last raced at Ellis Park, Keeneland, Mountaineer, Charles Town or anywhere outside of North America were a combined 2-for-40 at the Spa in 2011.

    FAVORITES

    Contrary to popular opinion, the “Graveyard of Favorites” is exceedingly formful, boasting a success rate for favorites in line with the national norm, despite unusually robust fields. Last year, in open claiming races, for example, favorites won 44 percent of the time while producing a healthy ROI of 27 percent.

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    TRACK BIAS

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    The main track at Saratoga favors early speed types, particularly in sprint races (36 percent overall wire-to-wire win rate, 44 percent in races at 6-6 ½ furlongs). 

    On the lawn, the opposite is true. Even turf sprints, which are often won by speedy types at other venues, favor closers at Saratoga. 

    This closers bias is even more evident on the inner turf, where just 15 percent of the races carded were won by the horse leading at the first call in 2011. Interestingly, at least last year, it was harder to go wire-to-wire at a mile (13 percent winning rate) than it was at 1 1/16 miles (24 percent rate).

    For more great track stats, be sure to check out Brisnet.com.

    Free Win Factor Report
    Click HERE to get a free Win Factor Report for The Meadowlands on Saturday, July 14. In addition to the $600,000 Meadowlands Pace, Saturday’s “Big M” card includes four races rated 75 percent or higher and suggested exacta plays in eight of the 13 races.

  • Meadowlands Pace Headlines High-Stakes Weekend

    POSTED Jul 11, 2012 By Frank Cotolo
    The first million-dollar race in harness history is now worth $600,000 but it loses none of its stature as one of the three primary events of the season for soph-colt pacers. All eyes are on the field of 10 in this Saturday night, July 14’s Meadowlands Pace. They are evenly matched, most think, even though the obvious Sweet Lou is the strong morning-line favorite. 


    Also this weekend, the Meadowlands presents frosh colt-and-filly pacers in New Jersey Sires Stakes action on Friday, July 13 and soph-filly pacers battle in the Mistletoe Shalee final on the “Pace” program. The Pace is part of a $100,000 guaranteed Pick-4 pool that spans races 10-13. 

    Also on July 14 at the Meadowlands, Hambo-hopefuls clash in the Stanley Dancer and Hambo-Oaks eligibles go in the Del Miller. Along with Pennsylvania Sires Stakes for colt trotters at Pocono, the square-gaiters are exercising for the big dance on Aug. 4. For an analysis of those events, go to our exclusive Hambletonian Trail. The result stories (and archived reports of all the eligibles performances in stakes since May) are at the Hambletonian Society.  

    In addition, there is some hot Midwest action afoot. Hoosier Park offers Indiana Sires Stakes finals, Hazel Park presents the William Connors Memorial Final and the Grand Circuit Hanover events adorn the cards at Balmoral Park.  

    Pace Makes The Race


    The full field will line up as follows:

    1. A Rocknroll Dance - Yannick Gingras
    2. Pet Rock - Brian Sears
    3. Heston Blue Chip - Tim Tetrick
    4. Sweet Lou - Dave Palone
    5. Bolt The Duer - Mark MacDonald
    6. Simply Business - Ron Pierce
    7. Thinking Out Loud - Randy Waples
    8. State Treasurer - Dave Miller
    9. Time To Roll - Andy Miller
    10. Allstar Legend - Jim Morrill Jr.

    The Pace is part of a $100,000 guaranteed Pick Four pool that spans races 10-13. 

    Although the Meadowlands Pace is worth $400,000 less than usual, it does not take away from its prestige. It, yet again, drew a field of the best three-year-old pacers in the world. But, the 2012 Pace has one detail that separates it from any other—the caliber and talent of these pacers make them inseparable.  

    All eyes are still on Sweet Lou, who gets a tepid 5-2 morning-line-favorite status. But this race seems to be developing like the North America Cup. Sweet Lou has proven he is a one-dimensional horse that will likely perform the same move he made in the North America Cup and his Pace elimination (he made the same one-brush move to win the Breeders Crown at two). If this is truly the case and Sweet Lou, new shoes or old, has only a single move in him, then a different sophomore will get his time to shine.  

    A Rocknroll Dance is coming out of his elimination mile looking fantastic. Although he was a narrow second, he fought hard as soon as he found room to almost catch a wearying Sweet Lou. The only fault this colt has is that he always stays at the cones for too long and sometimes cannot find room to use his saved energy. He got lucky in the “Hempt,” which he won, when the pocket opened at the right time for him to swing around and catch the early speed. Chances are, Yannick Gingras, who has been in the bike since “Dance” secured the number-two spot as a frosh against Sweet Lou,  is going to get him a second-over trip and fly by Sweet Lou.

    Also with a shot is Bolt The Duer. He was expected to race great in his elimination but could not find racing room to make a better impression. But he got to the final and that makes him dangerous. As long as he gets an opportunity, he should be super sharp.

    In the trifecta, include Thinking Out Loud. He always finds a way to get the right trip. Likely, he will again, but may not have enough to beat Bolt The Duer or A Rocknroll Dance.  

    Want to play a superfecta? Add Pet Rock. He showed a great deal of stamina in his elimination but clipped wheels with Thinking Out Loud, which made him and the North America Cup winner lose ground. Before that, he hit the gate and broke in the North America Cup. He needs to get a good trip to finish in the top four but that is the quartet that can shake up the prices, all combos leaving Sweet Lou out of the picture. 

    Briefly looking at the other contestants: 

    Heston Blue Chip won his elim but did so with a perfectly smooth trip. This king of the current New York-bred sophomores is fast and can be furious but we are yet to see him against adversity. This mile will be more provoking than he may be able to handle.

    Simply Business was a horse we hammered last year as our choice in the Metro and he delivered at 20-1. At three he has not had the chance to take advantage of his late surging, which is his best quality. That talent might not equal the prowess of this division, however, and we doubt if he can pull off a stand-up win against the likes of this group when battling together.

    State Treasurer is another good pacer who should always be a contender but has not fully demonstrated a threatening quality against the others in the Pace field. Perhaps he is the perfect Little Brown Jug horse? He will be one to contend with in other stakes if he continues to keep up with these and certainly can slam lesser talent in the division.

    Time To Roll could be the best outside contender in the field. At one point we considered putting him in the top-choice seat but had to be realistic, projecting an unpredictable performance was not an option. Though we would not be surprised if he unleashed a new style that shook up the competition. He may be that good.

    Allstar Legend has his work cut out for him but he is certainly welcomed in this field, though he will find the 10 post a burden under any circumstances, certainly with the likes of the sustainable speed already proven by the foes inside of him. 

    The $190,850 Mistletoe Shalee Final presents the fantastic American Jewel on Pace night and she towers over the field, as she has all in her soph-filly pacing division. We offer a probable longshot for second, doubting if she will overcome the prohibitive choice. That gal is the 10 horse, Destiny’s Chance. She has a lot of talent and may be launched to a great spot by Gingras early enough to make it into the picture, certainly at high odds.

    Grand Circuit Contests

    The “Circuit” hits Illinois this week, bringing the traditional Hanover Stakes for two- and three-year-olds to be tested in splits worth $28,000-plus-to-$50,000 plus. Our interest in value for wagers focuses upon the July 14 freshman splits.

    Among the colt divisions, beware of All Fired Up. This one is a son of The Panderosa and should display some wicked speed. In another division, we like Our Dragon King, a son of Dragon Again. Among the competition in his split, he is showing the most promise with the best bloodline. The other colt to watch is Agood Time To Rock. His sire is the productive Rocknroll Hanover, who has been responsible for some mighty fine two- and three-year-olds and continues to impress the early divisions with his latest crop. 

    Among the fillies, we offer Dune In Red. Though we doubt this gal will escape the eyes of the public, she certainly seems to be the best of the group.

    Hoosier Heroes


    Hoosier Park presents a quartet of $200,000 sires stakes finals. Our eyes are focused on the following participants: 

    In the soph-colt pace, Race 10, we like Jammin Joshua. The inside post should find him in a great spot to win his fourth of seven races. He has not been out of the money at three.

    In the soph-colt trot, Race 5, the Ron Burke-trained A Royal Peck appears primed to take the big check, looking for his fourth win in eight starts.

    In the soph-filly pace, Race 12, Soaring Honey, trained by Erv Miller, has been sharp, finishing first or second in seven starts and making it into this classy realm with a gritty style.

    In the soph-filly trot, Race 11, Angel Band is simply the fastest of this lot and as long as she can get away cleanly and command the fractions she may draw off and leave them all hoping for better days ahead.

    Play the Hoosier Mega 10X Pick 4 every Thursday!

    Harness racing at Hoosier Park ensues and playing the Thursday night programs at TwinSpires earns you 10 TSC Elite Points for all wagers on those program. Also, the Pick 4 features a guaranteed $5,000 pool (races four through seven). Post is 5:30 p.m. EST.

    Ray Cotolo contributed to this edition.

  • Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes

    POSTED Jul 7, 2012 By Frank Cotolo
    The sweltering heat turned into dangerous conditions for man and beast, causing some raceways to cancel their July 7 programs—even the night cards. Temperatures in the hundreds from the Midwest to the Atlantic seaboard swarmed over the minds and bodies of all creatures—even bettors! 

    At the Meadowlands all eyes were on the glamour-boy pacers in the Meadowlands Pace elims on Saturday. The return of Sweet Lou was productive, as he beat our choice, the entry of Bettor’s Edge and Allstar Legend, in 1:49.1. “Legend” finished fourth, earning a spot in next week’s final. 

    New York champ Heston Blue Chip took the second elimination in 1:49. A wall of colts closing late sucked up our first choice, Time To Roll, leading into the stretch. Our other contender, Pet Rock, finished third and made the final as well. 

    At Pocono Downs there were three sophomore colt trotter divisions of the Pennsylvania All Stars. These Hambletonian eligibles offered some value, as it turned out. In the first division we gave you Fashion Astral at $13.80. In the first division we were second with Frost Bites K, losing to the favorite, a $4.40 pay. In the third split we were right about Uncle Peter but everyone agreed with us; he won and paid $2.10.

    We hoped for a speed duel that would take out Googoo Gaagaa in the Yonkers Trot so that Stormin Normand could close on a dueling trio. But “Googoo” broke as Archangel set the fractions and “Normand” got up for second.  

    Friday’s frosh events were not so kind to us, as two of our contenders broke. The closest  we came to a win was Classic Martine finishing second at Pocono.  

    It’s July and our exclusive Hambletonian Trail blog continues to preview races through the weeks for both divisions as Hambo hopes live and die. The reviews of those events and archives of all that has happened since May are at the Hambletonian Society site.  

    Every weekend we offer Balmoral Pick-4-and-win picks at the USTA’s Strategic Wagering Program page which includes suggested win bets. Last week we hit with Cinnamon Spider at $9, So Be It at $8.40 and Lady Lakers at $21.80.

    Also, we invite you to enjoy our musings on other standardbred topics at my Hoof Beats blog titled Vast Performances.  

    Connect to Twitter and follow Frank and Ray Cotolo for up-to-the-minute suggestions on wagers at many harness raceways. Then, wager from TwinSpires.

    Get onto our mailing list. We’re beginning to contact people with information to help you play for profit. By clicking here you will be added to the list and be secure as a member (we do not share the emails with anyone). Free stuff is coming your way.

    News And Notes

    If you haven’t read the Eric Carlson exclusive interview by Ray Cotolo you can read it by clicking here. Eric won his first Meadowlands race the Saturday after doing this interview.

    This is the best, if not only, time of the year when the issue of sires may be important to harness racing bettors. The freshmen have hit the track and that means new crops from sires expected to be great as well as proven sires are being represented by progeny.

    Among pacers it is interesting to note that Badlands Hanover, who has been siring for some years now and now does so in Canada, leads in two-year-old earnings. “Badlands” was a front-stepping speedball who, when he went to stud, led the new atmosphere of breeding for speed in the standardbred industry. Badlands progeny showed the early foot of their sire and convinced a lot of other breeders and conditioners to definitively alter training methods that once emphasized strength and stamina in standardbreds.

    “It’s all about breeding for speed now,” Joe Thomson of Winbak Farms said to me in an interview when Badlands stood his first season in Delaware.

    So, in 2012 it comes as little surprise that second on the list of money earning sires of freshmen so far is Somebeachsomewhere, the Canadian fireball that went to Hanover Farms to do his stud duty.

    In keeping with speed, frosh-trotting leading sire is Kadabra. He was soph-trotting champ during a year he was not eligible for the Hambletonian and beat most of the classic’s eligibles racing in other major stakes that year. We jumped on his progeny early, documenting his success with fillies, and delivered a good number of winners during our run at YouBet. Poof Like Magic was our winning choice the year she debuted on track and made her mark.

    We will keep you posted if we notice any early season trends in freshmen from new sires, trying to grab an edge the only way we can when it comes to using sires to handicap harness horses.

    Horse-of-the-Year San Pail, a three-time defending Maple Leaf Trot champ, will not be in the 2012 edition on July 21 at Mohawk, according to trainer Rod Hughes. After finishing fifth- in a June 22 qualifier at Mohawk (timed in 1:58.3), Hughes was concerned. He said he noticed that the trotter’s left-hind boot was down “and that’s never a good sign.” Apparently San Pail hit himself in that area at some point in the qualifier. A vet found a slight injury in that area, so he is not going to the Maple Leaf Trot.



    Cartoon by Thom Pye

  • Older male division

    POSTED Jul 6, 2012 By Unknown
    It's a big weekend for older males on the road to the Breeders' Cup Classic with the Hollywood Gold Cup and Suburban both slated for Saturday.

    The Hollywood Gold Cup features the best horse running this weekend (if not in North America) while the Suburban is a more competitive race.

    I haven't had a very good handle on this division this year. I've had Mucho Macho Man, Wise Dan, and Successful Dan all ranked in the top spot of my America's Best Racing poll, and after Successful Dan lost the Cornhusker I finally cried "UNCLE!" and put a three-year-old (Bodemeister) on top, but given that he has neither A) won at 1 1/4 miles, or B) defeated elders yet, I could see putting his stablemate (Game On Dude) in the top spot with an impressive win on Saturday, though I'm still nervous about thinking the best horse in the country right now is a horse who lost to Drosselmeyer.

    Anyway, lots more going on beyond the older males this year. The Summit of Speed at Calder has lots of great storylines, including Trinniberg against his elders, and Musical Romance back to defend her Princess Rooney crown. There's also the United Nations, and lots of discussion of the new two-year-old maiden races rules for the upcoming Saratoga meeting.

    This week's TCI touches on all those issues as well as Steve Nash and Turbulent Descent!


  • Winning Without Handicapping

    POSTED Jul 5, 2012 By Derek Simon
    “Put your money where your mouth is” has been a rallying cry for gamblers since time immemorial. Basically, it means if one is so confident about whatever it is they are asserting, they should put some money down — they should bet on it.

    Many horseplayers think along similar lines. They will pass (I tried that once in 1992) or bet less money on races they are less sure of and wager with gusto on the events they like.

    This got me wondering: Is it possible to determine the efficiency of pari-mutuel odds based solely on the relative handle?  

    That speculative markets like pari-mutuel pools are generally efficient is hardly arguable. In fact, on Wall Street, there’s a name for it: the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH for short). Formulated in the early 1960s by Eugene Fama, a professor of finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, EMH asserts that speculative markets reflect all that is known and can be analyzed, while rapidly assimilating new data on various traded assets. In racing parlance, this means that each horse in a race is, for the most part, fairly priced.

    Again, let me stress that we are talking in generalities here. Obviously, Wall Street traders and racetrack gamblers encounter underlays (overvalued horses/financial instruments) and overlays (undervalued horses/financial instruments) every day. That said, those of us who are honest, i.e. not in politics, know that the concept of value betting is much tougher in practice than in theory.

    But what if the pools themselves could tell us how predictable a particular race was? What if we knew in advance — without even handicapping — whether a particular steed was a good or bad favorite?

    Well, based on my preliminary research, we can.

    I examined the June 30 and July 1 result charts from nearly every thoroughbred track in North America with one simple goal: to find out if the money wagered on a particular race was an indication of that contest’s efficiency or predictability. Specifically I looked for the one event on each card that generated the highest straight pool (win, place and show) handle. I then recorded the odds of each winner and noted whether or not it was the favorite.

    Here’s what I found:
    Races: 64
    Winning Favorites: 32
    Rate: 50.0%
    Return: $134.30
    ROI: +4.92%
    Median Win Price: $6.80
    50 percent winners and a positive ROI… think about that for a second. And while you’re still on the toilet (hey, it’s where I do my best thinking), remember that, on average, favorites win only about a third (33.3 percent) of the time and produce a return of just 85 cents on each dollar wagered (-15 percent ROI).

    What’s more, the races in my study ran the gambit — from graded stakes events to lowly maiden claimers. At Monmouth Park on June 30, for example, there were two stakes races — the kind of high-purse races we bettors supposedly flock to — on the card, yet it was the fourth event of the day, a lowly maiden claiming affair, that generated the most interest among punters.  

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    Field size didn’t always matter either, as was proved at Emerald Downs on July 1, when the fourth race, consisting of seven betting interests, produced a larger handle than the second race (eight entrants), third race (10 entrants) and sixth race (nine entrants).

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    Interestingly, the third race was comprised primarily of first-time starters, which adds credence to the thesis that the handle reflects bettor confidence and, as a result, the efficiency of the odds.

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    Now, clearly, more research needs to be done, but the initial implications of this study are stunning. If it’s true that more wagering leads to more formful results, it would seem that the opposite might also hold true — that less wagering leads to more chaotic results.

    Also, rather than focusing on the race with the highest handle of the day as I did (which is an after-the-fact observation), one might instead establish handle “pars,” averages to help one determine unusually heavy or light betting activity. Armed with such knowledge, players could spot efficient and less efficient betting markets with relative ease.

    The possibilities, it seems, are endless.


    Weekend Win Factor Plays

    Coming soon.

  • Star Power Across The Board

    POSTED Jul 4, 2012 By Frank Cotolo

    Enter July. Things should start to get interesting right about now. That is, aside from the bevy of harness racing all over the continent, the creams of the freshmen and sophomore crops on both gaits and from both sexes are beginning to jockey for position, so to speak.

    Even though the Meadowlands Pace is no longer a million-dollar event, it is a brand that any of the colt pacers dropped into the box for the elims this Saturday want on their resume.

    And the Yonkers Trot, though it has been reduced to short fields and doesn’t attract some great horses because their owners are wary of racing on the half-mile oval, still demands black type on a horse’s pedigree page.

    As the Grand Circuit grinds through the thick summer haze, landing this weekend at the Meadowlands and Dave Palone is poised to break Herve Filion’s record for most wins in a lifetime—a mark that will be treated with superior attention inside the sport but disappear like a whisper in an Egyptian street riot outside the sport, players are primed for profiting from the good, the bad and the misfortunate.

    Hambo-hopefuls are in peril of losing the classic Yonkers Trot to a colt whose sire is a pacer. Googoo Gaagaa is on automatic, smashing speed records and testing the division that will send its best—sans “Googoo,”—to the August classic.

    As well, Pennsylvania All Stars events host trotters at Pocono, there are Grand Circuit miles for both sexes at the Meadowlands and Hazel Park has some sweet hopefuls lines up. For the analysis of the big events, go to our exclusive Hambletonian Trail and then follow through with result stories (and the archived stories of all the eligibles performances in stakes since May) at the Hambletonian Society.

    The ‘Pace’ Is On

    This weekend is one of the most promising, yet disappointing, weekends on the racing calendar. This year, 16 glamour-boy pacers will be looking to make their mark in history, but first have to qualify for the final field of the Meadowlands Pace. Aside from missing super-pacer Warrawee Needy, there are a pair of all-star elim fields.  

    Last year, Big Jim came off a great win in his elimination only to lose by a 1/2 length in the final to Roll With Joe. Two years ago, Rock N Roll Heaven opened eyes in his elimination score, pacing in 1:47.3, the fastest mile ever in the eliminations for this event. He came up short through torrid fractions in the final to lose to a lesser-talented One More Laugh. Three years ago a great pacer won his elimination and the final; Well Said. romped in a world-record 1:47.3.  

    There has been many times when a horse that simply hit his peak trumps the best horse. Art Official, Southwind Lynx and Holborn Hanover, were a few. The elimination winner isn’t obviously a horse to beat. But before we get ahead of ourselves, lets look at the 2012 eliminations.

    Two eliminations drew in 16 horses (carded as Races 5 and 6). They will go off on Saturday, July 7 as the end of the Pick 5 and the beginning of the Pick 4.

    The first division features the return of Sweet Lou, who has a shoe change that could help him perform better than his disappointing North America Cup performance. Since then, he paced a 1:49 training mile. But he’ll have to go against the same tough rivals, ones that seem tougher now than before he failed in Canada. They are A Rocknroll Dance and Hurrikane Kingcole. This division is, perhaps, going to be the fastest of the two.

    We will take our shot with the entry of Bettor’s Edge and Allstar Legend. Bettor’s Edge was the underdog in the North America Cup, racing fair in his elimination and expected to do great in the final, except he had to settle for sixth. He rebounded in a New York Sires Stakes event at Vernon, winning as the 1-5 favorite in 1:50.4. He has the rail here and should get a great trip for an upset.

    Allstar Legend dead-heated for second with Bolt The Duer in the “Hempt” final, where he got a perfect trip and room late but was nipped by A Rocknroll Dance. He drew post 4 and should likely get a pocket trip and come late.

    You can’t leave out A Rocknroll Dance. He came back after tanking in the North America Cup and Hempt elim by winning the final as an outsider. If he gets the right trip, he’ll be iron tough but not at 17-1, which were his winning odds last week.

    In the second elim, Thinking Out Loud looks to shine after his 8-1 triumph in the North America Cup. But Time To Roll will be looking to show he’s best. He was a game second to Thinking Out Loud in the North America Cup and should get a better trip this week.

    Also watch Pet Rock. He won valiantly against older horses in a conditioned event at Pocono Downs. Before that, he broke in the North America Cup, but closed to regain 17 lengths through the mile. As long as he’s flat, he should be competitive.

    All Stars


    At Pocono Downs the player’s most frightening division, frosh-filly trotters, goes to post in four lucrative Pennsylvania All Stars divisions. The scare is a stigma for this group that has been known to produce some hefty priced winners. Let’s look around it.

    In division one on July 6, the recognizable Jimmy Takter will be supported by his two-time winner True Valentine. This leaves an opening for prospective upsetter Marion Mayflower. She could find a good spot and take advantage of saving ground while Takter’s gal deals with the outside and the crowded field.

    The second split could offer some value with Classic Martine. She is showing early promise and comes in to this race looking like a solid second or third choice, bargains at both statuses.

    The third mile finds Aspidistra Hanover raring to go after a Vernon Downs qualifier of 1:59.1, which is as good as this group seems to get, so far.

    Finally, Tatoo You was right behind “Aspidistra” in her speedy trial and could win at first crack with plenty of payoff power. 

    Grand Circuit Contests


    The W.N. Reynolds hold divisions at the Meadowlands on Friday and Saturday. The July 6 and July 7 splits for glamour-boy-and-girl trotters and are covered on the Hambletonian Trail. Meanwhile, freshmen follies for fillies and frosh-colt pacers are presented in splits on Friday.

    In split one for the fillies, Nikki Beach, a daughter of the speedy Somebeachsomewhere, will get most of the attention at the windows unless the buzz for Mistrisstothestars is too strong and makes this one the favorite. Even then, there should be no overlooking Rocknrollnitemare. She is from the productive crops of Rocknroll Hanover and could be overlooked due to the aforementioned gals.

    Split two offers some mighty fast young gals, with Odds On Alpha already a 1:54.1 winner. She is another Somebeachsomewhere progeny. But speed can be relative in harness racing, especially during a horse’s first season. So, Jerseylicious is our probable value wager against “Alpha” and Shebesting, who just got by our choice last out in a Grand Circuit event.

    Frosh colts have become stronger over the years, if only judged by how many return at three with prowess. This year’s debut crop could follow through with the trend.  

    In their first Reynolds split on Friday, a case could be made for any of the nine aboard. They are all maidens but for Troon, who was dynamic winning his first last week at this oval. He is one for one, three for three if you count his two qualifiers. But we will go with Ralbar, who has a post edge, speed and who only lost last out—his first pari-mutuel start—by going too fast too soon, a wide move that cost him the top spot. 

    In their second mile, Rockaholic may wind up a big bargain. He should have the versatility of his bloodline and be able to close as well as lead, so without the weighty outside trips his most recent duo provided he could be in the perfect spot from post five to win at a very good price.

    Play the Hoosier Mega 10X Pick 4 every Thursday!

    Harness racing at Hoosier Park ensues and playing the Thursday night programs at TwinSpires earns you 10 TSC Elite Points for all wagers on those program. Also, the Pick 4 features a guaranteed $5,000 pool (races four through seven). Post is 5:30 p.m. EST.

    Ray Cotolo contributed to this edition.