Three preps and a cloud of dust

With 51 points available this weekend (17 in each of three Kentucky Derby Prep Season races), the February 2 action will be the most lucrative to date on this year's Triple Crown trail.

For free Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances for the three races (Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs, Withers at Aqueduct, and Robert Lewis at Santa Anita), click here. No race this weekend features a horse currently among the top 11 points earners through last weekend, but that would change even for a horse without any points with a win.

Triple Crown Insider returns for this big weekend on the Derby trail. Watch the video below to see who JS & JC like in this weekend's big races.



Be sure to check out HelloRaceFans.org for updated information on the Road to the Kentucky Derby (and Oaks!), including schedules, standings, etc. And sign up for its Derby Prep Alert e-mail for info on the big races including free Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances (PPs) for each race!

Points make the grade, too

Over on the Twitters, Chris Rossi of @O_Crunk fame is fond of chiding me for sticking up for a Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands qualifying system that now uses points rather than graded stakes earnings to determine the field if more than 20 horses enter.

@heylaserbeam @petedenk I get pure, unadulterated satisfaction that @ejxd2 has to defend point system that not long ago he woulda laughed at
— o_crunk (@o_crunk) January 18, 2013

Indeed, back in March 2010 I wrote a paean to the graded stakes earnings system that dared anyone to think that a points system could be superior.

One of the things gambling has taught me is that there's no perfect system. The martingale eventually collapses under the weight of table limits, and "angles" in horse racing (e.g. best last-out figure) eventually lose their edge in a pari-mutuel format.

And so it goes with Derby qualifying rules, too. The new system isn't perfect but nor was the old system. Lost in all the consternation of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner no longer being guaranteed a spot in the Derby starting gate is that the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, Juvenile Turf, and Juvenile Fillies Turf winners aren't either.

That Shanghai Bobby isn't yet guaranteed a spot in the Derby is a big reason why we saw him in the Holy Bull Stakes this past weekend. Do you think Uncle Mo would have run in the Timely Writer Stakes if the points system was in place in 2010-2011?

Another Breeders' Cup Juvenile comparison people make is to lament that the race is "worth the same as the Delta Jackpot" or "the four-horse Bob Lewis." What they don't acknowledge is that it's also no longer the most important race, as it was when it worth $2-million rather than

I am not arguing for or against the BC Juvenile being worth 10 points to the winner, but I absolutely do think it's a positive that it and all other Breeders' Cup races are no longer automatic qualifiers and that it's no longer the most valuable race for qualifying purposes. 

Also lost in the conversation is that spots one through 19 really don't matter. Oh, sure, those higher in the standings might attract more money from casual fans who recognize the names, but in terms of the purpose of the system, a billion points in first is the same as ten points in 19th.

And 20th only matters if there's a horse in 21st. It's not a given that more than 20 will enter. The wailing and gnashing of teeth four months out about which horses might be left out doesn't seem to reflect the real possibility that no horse will be left out.

Admittedly when this all began I had my doubts whether the new points system would achieve its stated goal of being more accessible to fans and help build drama on the Road to the Derby, but I'm happy to report that initial returns (albeit based mostly on anecdotal evidence) appear that I was wrong, and that the system is in fact helping drum up more interest not only in the races but also both the horses and competitions involved in the build up.

Be sure to check out HelloRaceFans.org for updated information on the Road to the Kentucky Derby (and Oaks!), including schedules, standings, etc. And sign up for its Derby Prep Alert e-mail for info on the big races including free Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances (PPs) for each race!

Stop, Look And Win

We are in between major stakes action again. February stakes-and-series offers will be presented at the Meadowlands in February but in the meantime, even though this winter weather is unpredictable by and large, we have other tracks and action to address.

A special TwinSpires promotion for players of the Feb. 2 Woodbine harness card is on the docket, so check out the ways and means of that by clicking here.

We won't handicap the entire Pick 4 at Woodbine but below we offer one horse in each of the legs we feel you should have on your ticket.

Our exclusive horses-to-watch list (H2W) has been reeling in successful horses and we continue this week sans the cancellations last weekend’s bad weather provoked. First, let us answer some questions that have crossed our desk about the horses that earn their ways onto the H2W.

The most asked questions concern the lack of information we include with H2W inclusions. All of these inquiries can be answered simply. We do not take into consideration any of the usual elements people place weight upon when handicapping a harness race. Hot drivers or trainers don’t matter to us; class plays little-to-no role in the selection; track size and the track itself are moot points.

We are concerned with trips, which in our decades of experience have always been the primary predictors of which horses would contend in their next two or three outings. Other elements so not matter to us, including speed, which is always a debatable factor. With this in mind, it would only clutter the text to add those tired, brief comments that handicappers have attached to picks for as long as there have been tip sheets.

Suffice it to say that H2W horses have raced impressive recently and must be considered “live” now, regardless of morning-line or post-time odds. Our experienced eyes watch races objectively and notice the trips that send up flares that horses may be ready to fire and hopefully pay well.

The proof of this is in the results of our H2W candidates. Our larger double-digit successes so far this season have not appeared as picks in any other blog or pick sheet; they have been exclusive to TwinSpires’ readers. Always review the legend, published again below, to authenticate the choices and learn to judge how you will use the information.

Legend

H2W

Buffalo
2/1/13, +Freds Dream R1; Townline Debbie R 2; Dudley Doright R5; Fourstarzconfusion R7; Hidden Dragon R11; Grayland Becky R13
2/2/13, +Full Circle Sprint R1; +Northmedo Esther R6; +Aston Seelster R13

Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes

This week the horses to watch list (H2W) was affected, as we predicted, by the wintry weather sweeping across the Northeast. In Canada, the huge storm front caused cancellation of the Jan. 25 program at Fraser Downs and in the U.S., the Meadows. This reduced the number of this weekend’s H2W performers. Though the storm hit hard it moved quickly eastward and our other H2W tracks’ programs survived.  

H2W

Here they are from the highest paying to the lowest paying winners from the H2W on our blog last Thursday:






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News And Notes

Yonkers has increased the appeal of its most important stakes. Beginning in 2013, guaranteed final purses are presented in the open divisions. The changes take effect immediately with the foal crop of 2010. The half-mile oval is home to three major harness events: the Yonkers Trot, Art Rooney Pace and Messenger Stakes.

The Yonkers Trot is scheduled for Saturday (July 27), with a $450,000 guaranteed final. The Art Rooney Pace for three-year-olds will now have a guaranteed final of $275,000 on Saturday (June 1). The Messenger Stake, slated for Saturday (Nov. 2), will feature a final guaranteed at $450,000.

The purses for the accompanying filly divisions will continue with estimated purses as follows: the Lismore and Lady Maud are $115,000 estimated and the Hudson Filly Trot final is $110,000 estimated. 

Three-time Trotting Mare of the Year Buck I St Pat retired in 2011 to become a broodmare. On Jan. 24 she gave birth to her first foal, a filly by 2007 Horse of the Year Donato Hanover. The foal was born at Hanover Shoe Farms in Pennsylvania, where “Donato” stands as a stallion.

Buck I St Pat won 51 of 106 starts, including two Breeders Crown finals, the Armbro Flight, the Classic Series final, the Conway Hall, the American-National and two Maxie Lee Memorial titles. She earned $2.32 million

Come Together is the hottest horse at Dover Downs, winning his 10th in a row. Since last fall, Come Together, a son of champion pacer Artsplace and now a seven-year-old gelding, continues to call bettors to the windows for future races since overlays will be flowing from the fields he faces.

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Extraordinary Extras




Ray Cotolo contributed to this blog.


Cartoons by Thom Pye

Wiseguys Holy Bearish on Shanghai Bobby

Shanghai Bobby will have more money bet on him to win the Holy Bull Stakes (free Brisnet.com Ultimate PPs) than all other horses combined, yet few are actually picking him to win.

This is common phenomena among the horse racing cognoscenti. Picking favorites--especially odds on favorites coming off a layoff following a slow race--is taboo and a typical path to the poorhouse. It's not that anyone thinks Shanghai Bobby can't win--he's even the most likely winner--but 4-to-5 on the aforementioned variables does encourage shopping around.

So what is the best approach to betting a race where the most likely winner is an underlay? On the plus side, underlays create overlays (not always the case because of takeout, but you can't have an overlay without an underlay), but on the negative side, betting against the most likely winner increases variance, so navigating these situations is essential for proper bankroll management.

Itsmyluckyday is my top pick. I think he can win this race 25% of the time (3-to-1 fair odds), so 6-to-1 (14.3%) makes him a decent win bet, and the field is competitive enough that I'll probably play him across in case Shanghai Bobby runs well ... enough for fourth.

Still, I do like Shanghai Bobby more than some of the otherwise-fashionable alternatives in the race like Frac Daddy and Dewey Square. If Shanghai Bobby were to win, then I'd like to beat FD & DS underneath. There's still money to be made if Shanghai Bobby wins but Itsmyluckyday and/or Sr. Quisqueyano crash the number as well.

The one favorite on the card I do love is Kauai Katie in the Forward Gal Stakes (Brisnet.com Ultimate PPs for Kentucky Oaks prep races, including the Santa Ysabel). She'll be 1-to-2 making her tough to bet to win, but I'll probably try to get live to my prices in the Holy Bull by singling her in the multis.

And perhaps the most exciting news of all as the Kentucky Derby trail winds toward Louisville, is that TCI is back with Jon Siegel and Joel Cunningham recapping the major players on the trail so far and previewing the Holy Bull.

Weekend Handicapping Reports

(Click on image to enlarge)

The Jazzman: from babysitter to Pick 6 hitter

Chasing the Rainbow

Blustery Winds For Winter Winners

It’s great to have a TwinSpires account and play harness racing across the continent in the comfort of your own home but this weekend lake-effect snow showers in the Northeast and Midwest could cause some track cancellations. It takes a whole lot of frost and snow to stop standardbreds from beating their way around the limestone but some forecasts are predicting severe weather that makes it dangerous for horsemen, patrons and track staff to keep the show going.

TwinSpires will keep you updated on any track closings over the weekend. Meanwhile, we are going to present our product as if the races will go on because ill winds can blow away as quickly as they arrive and we want bettors to be on top of the action as long as the track doors are opened for business.

At the Meadowlands some winter-series finals will adorn the Saturday night program, including the Presidential Final for the early season’s fastest group, the stalwart older pacing males.

And we are looking forward to another big weekend of success from our exclusive horses-to-watch list (H2W).

Magnificent Meadowlands Finales

Winners On Our Watch

H2W

 
Buffalo
1/25/13, +Keystone Fling R2; Northmedo Esther R2; Full Circle Spring R10
+Freds Dream N/R; +Little Gus N/R; + Pro Kid N/R; +ML Jackhammer N/R; +PW Tootsie N/R; Marians Man N/R; The Grey Bullet N/R

Fraser
1/25/13, Comearoundback R2; +Red Star Bogart R2; Millbanks Ariel R3; Anasazzi Road R6; Rich As Promised R7; Hf Thanks Will R7; I Hear Voices R8; Cody Cobraski R9; Kg Mattattack R10; +Midnight Destroyer R10; Procrastinatinpeat R11; +Thunder Noise R11; Bobbysslackystar R11
+Tap Out N/R; +Workfortheman N/R

The Kentucky Derby future wager question before a big prep race: Now or later?

Shanghai Bobby is the third consecutive undefeated two-year-old male champion to cap his Eclipse Award-winning season with a win in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, but will the champ's three-year-old debut in the Holy Bull Stakes on Saturday at Gulfstream Park be met with the same zest as Uncle in 2011 and Hansen in 2012?

There's zero chance that Shanghai Bobby will be the 1-to-20 Uncle Mo was when winning the Timely Writer Stakes, but he might be around the 9-to-10 Hansen was when second to Algorithms in last year's Holy Bull (at a one-turn mile; this year's race is 1 1/16 miles).

I'd be beyond shocked if Shanghai Bobby weren't favored, but a deep field featuring Bern Identity, Clearly Now, Dewey Square, Frac Daddy, Itsmyluckyday, Sr. Quisqueyano, and Tulira Castle should keep the price in that even money range--especially since the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (his first race around two turns) was so slow based on metrics used by people who can move an odds board.

I'll have (what I hope is) the pleasure of being in Las Vegas this week both before and after the Holy Bull, and all of the probables above are listed for wagering on the Wynn's Kentucky Derby future wager pool (link goes to free Brisnet.com Ultimate PPs of all horses offered).

Derek Simon and I have talked about our approaches to future wagers on the TwinSpires.com podcast, and listeners know that Shanghai Bobby (15-to-1), Frac Daddy (22-to-1), and Dewey Square (35-to-1) wouldn't appeal to me at those prices, but Bern Identity (50-to-1), Itsmyluckyday (65-to-1), Tulira Castle (100-to-1) Sr. Quisqueyano (225-to-1), and Clearly Now (250-to-1) have more appealing prices.

The question is, do I bet now or later? My thinking right now is that Shanghai Bobby is definitely the most likely winner of the Holy Bull but not of the Kentucky Derby. The way I plan to bet that opinion is to "let him" win the Holy Bull and if any of the horses at 50-to-1 or better run well behind them then still try to lock in those inflated prices.

The risk is that if any of the $100+ horses wins (or runs a flashy race behind the champion) then that price will be gone as well, but that's a chance I'm willing to take since I think Shanghai Bobby is the most likely winner of this race but not of the Kentucky Derby.

If you like Sr. Quisqueyano or Clearly Now those prices might seem enticing now, but they're certain to be among the longshots in the Holy Bull. Let's say they're 20-to-1 and a win would reduce either's price for the Kentucky Derby to 50-to-1. A $2 wager on them to win the Derby now would return $452 on Sr. Quisqueyano and $502 on Clearly Now. A $2 wager on them to win the Holy Bull would return $42. Parlaying that on them to win the Derby gets you to $2,000+. Even if they dropped to 20-to-1 after a Holy Bull win you'd be better of parlaying.

Thus, there really isn't that much risk to giving up the big price if you really like them to win. Granted, you're still going to lose some odds if they run well, but it still makes sense to wait.

For those looking for some pari-mutuel future wager action, Churchill Downs' first pool will be February 8-10, which is an empty week as far as points races going but follows a busy February opening of the Sam F. Davis, Robert B. Lewis, and the Withers.

As a final aside, here is the previous ten champion two-year-old males and race and odds in their three-year-old debut. I think it's interesting that both Uncle Mo and War Pass bowed in meaningless races at 1-to-20 and then lost their next start before missing the Derby. That Shanghai Bobby shows up in the Holy Bull is a testament A) to the effectiveness of the new Derby points system, B) trainer Todd Pletcher's confidence in the champion, or both.

Hansen, Holy Bull, 9-to-10
Uncle Mo, Timely Writer, 1-to-20
Lookin At Lucky, Rebel, 11-to-10
Midshipman, off trail
War Pass, allowance, 1-to-20
Street Sense, Tampa Bay Derby, 6-to-5
Stevie Wonderboy, San Rafael, 3-to-5
Declan's Moon, Bob Lewis (nee Santa Catalina), 4-to-5
Action This Day, Sham, 19-to-10
Vindication, retired

Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes

Expanded coverage of the horses to watch list (H2W) provided more winners and great prices for most, as well as we faired better with our choices in the early stakes season action at the Meadowlands.  

H2W

Here are the horses that finished second and third that will return to the H2W list next week and how they finished, along with their post-time odds. Special notes on their affects in those positions follow.




News And Notes

On Jan. 17, driver Ron Pierce won seven races in the Dover Downs program. However, with only one price in the double digits, and that only at 4-1, Pierce fans won only a few dollars from his spree. Pierce lost on the horses he drove with the longer odds that day and although he was a modest flat-bet profit, wagering on him solely due to his presence is not a smart idea.

Speaking of drivers, Matt Kakaley began the 2013 season at Yonkers with a blast. Working for trainer Ron Burke, Kakaley, formerly a mainstay in Ohio, Matt won 10 of his first 39 drives, taking the lead in the standings over Brian Sears, who recently made his headquarters at the New York oval over regular appearances at the new Meadowlands.

Kakaley has not made Yonkers his home; he is a top regular at Pocono Downs, which doesn’t open until March 23. Matt says he will return to Pennsylvania unless Burke makes him an offer worthy of staying in New York. Burke has been quoted saying, “I want to try to assign Matt some of the younger horses this year … He will be their regular driver … Yannick [Gingras] has other commitments in stakes races. I am going to try to give Matt the opportunity to drive better horses because I think he has earned it.”

Kakaley is the youngest driver ever to reach the 2,000-win plateau. He is 23.

The 2013 stake schedules for Illinois harness tracks Balmoral and Maywood have been released by racing secretary Doc Narotsky.

Upstate mile Balmoral begins its high-profile affairs on March 30 with the Taurus Bomber Stake for Illinois conceived and foaled (ICF) three-year-old pacing colts. Maywood’s stake season starts April 12 with soph-pacing colts in the Sportsmaster Stake.

The first major state-bred stake of the season is May 19’s race for three-year-old pacing fillies, the $45,000 Violet Stake at Balmoral. There will also be Violet and Cardinal stakes for ICF pacers and trotters on May 26, May 29 and June 1 at Balmoral.

Maywood’s first big event will be the $100,000 Filly Maywood Pace for ICF three-year-old fillies on June 14. The $100,000 Maywood Pace for ICF soph-pacing colts will be held June 21.

The first Hanover Stakes of the season at Balmoral will feature a trio of events for three-year-old trotters and three-year-old filly pacers on July 13.

The Southland Festival of Racing will provide plenty of state-bred action at Balmoral on July 27, July 28 and July 31 with pacers and trotters in $50,000 battles like the Mini Me Stake, Loyal Opposition Stake, Incredible Finale Stake, Ann Vonian Stake, Kadabra Stake, Fox Valley Evita Stake, Fox Valley Flan Stake and Plesac Stake.

A pair of $50,000 Hanovers for two-year-old colt and filly pacers are scheduled for Aug. 3 at the upstate oval. Balmoral will also play host to Illinois’ biggest night of racing, Super Night, on Sept. 14 for more than $1 million in purses. The American Nationals kick off on Sept. 18 with a pair of $90,000 trotting stakes for two-year-olds.

October promises to be a busy month for youngsters as the $100,000 Lady Lincoln Stake for two-year-old trotting fillies takes place on Oct. 2 while their male counterparts battle in the $100,000 Lincoln Land Stake on Oct. 6 at Balmoral. Maywood will also host the $60,000 Cardinal and Violet Stakes for two-year-old colt and filly pacers on Oct. 4. A pair of $60,000 Hanovers for two-year-old trotters are also slated for Oct. 13 at Balmoral.

Saturday, Nov. 9 and Friday, Nov. 15 the Grand Circuit action comes to town. Balmoral will play host to the $250,000 three-year-old colt pace, $225,00 American National three-year-old colt trot, $200,000 American National Aged Pace, $180,000 aged trot, $175,000 American National three-year-old filly pace, $150,000 three-year-old filly trot, $125,000 two-year-old colt pace and $125,000 two-year-old filly pace on Nov. 9.

Maywood’s biggest card of the season is Nov. 15 with the $225,000 Windy City Pace for three-year-old pacing colts, the $130,000 Abe Lincoln Stake for two-year-old pacing colts, the $120,00 Galt Trot for three-year-old trotting colts and the $100,000 Cinderella Stake for three-year-old pacing fillies sharing the spotlight. The $30,000 Associates-McKeever Stake for ICF pacers is also scheduled for that same night.   

Extraordinary Extras





Cartoons by Thom Pye