• Will final preps chalk out?

    POSTED Apr 12, 2012 By Unknown
    Although any of the Lexington (4/21 at Keeneland), Jerome (4/21 Aqueduct), or Derby Trial (4/28 at Churchill) Stakes could yield a Kentucky Derby starter in the two weekends between this one and the first Saturday in May, it is more likely that the field will mostly be set following the Blue Grass Stakes and Arkansas Derby on Saturday.

    My prediction is that the bubble horses in danger of being left out of the Kentucky Derby starting gate because of insufficient graded stakes earnings will like the results of the Blue Grass better than the Arkansas Derby since I foresee champion Hansen padding his bankroll in the former with Bodemeister earning enough to get in the gate and knocking someone else out with a win or second-place finish in the latter.

    The TCI boys weigh in on this weekend's action as well as give me a special gift from WinStar's Elliott Walden, who has noticed that I haven't had a lot of love for the farm's Tiznow colt, but at least I have a parting gift if he beats me again.

    In other graded stakes scenarios a la the last weekend of the National Football League season, Isn't He Clever and Optimizer need only third-place finishes to have enough graded stakes earnings, so a Bodemeister, Isn't He Clever, Optimizer tri box with Bodemeister in one of the top two spots is the bubble horses' worst nightmare. I like Secret Circle enough to say that's not the most likely scenario, but it certainly could happen.

    What does Toga Tout thing? Well, he's rooting for Bob Baffert "heart attack and all" and expects the Racing Hall of Fame trainer's two entries to make up at least two third of the trifecta with the aforementioned Bodemeister and Secret Circle. Too bad Oaklawn doesn't offer the ill-fated omni. Toga Tout could crush the Baffert pair.

  • Stalwarts’ Battles Ensue

    POSTED Apr 11, 2012 By Frank Cotolo
    Though there is one less division and some smaller fields, the George Morton Levy Memorial Pacing Series ensues, as does the Blue Chip Matchmaker Series, sans See You At Peelers. Yonkers Raceway hosts one of the signature events for older pacers.   

    At Woodbine on Saturday, while the “Levy” boys go sailing near The Bronx, it’s bargain time again. Woodbine, players on TwinSpires continue to collect TSC Elite points at the rate of 10X with successful $10 win tickets. 

    At Cal-Expo on Friday the 13th, the exclusive TwinSpires-Cal-Expo no-takeout Pick 4 could come off well despite all superstitions.   

    Levy Longevity


    The April 14 Yonkers program offers a quintet of “Levy” legs this week and again we analyze the battles. For free FAST sheets, click here.

    Race 4

    Strand Hanover battled hard with Atochia, winner of two legs, for two calls last week. He is looking very tough in a soft split, though he still needs a good trip.  

    Race 6

    We will give Art Two D Two one more shot to come back on the grid after his productive trip two back, even though he has post 6 here and can get into similar trouble. Last week he was flat but he deserves another shot among these, where he will obviously be at long odds. 

    Race 7

    Code Word made a strong early move but settled for second best to the favorite. He may wake up big for this series here, even from post 6. Meanwhile, PH Jackpot, who closed hard from post 7 last week will be competitive from the 4 hole and merits attention.     

    Race 8

    Jk Camelot was strong while first over going after the leader but faded around the turn. He needs a better trip and may be perfectly placed in the catbird seat here.  

    Race 9

    The Foiled Again parade may continue but at a proposed 1-5 we need be wary. If you don’t aim to pass this one, look for Art Z to once again take advantage of a steaming pace and roll through the burned out few to win, perhaps at a better price than last week.  

    ‘Match’ Marvels


    The Blue Chip Matchmaker offers a quartet of miles on Friday’s Yonkers’ program, as the three-race skein of See You At Peelers takes a breath before being challenged. “Peelers” takes a week off from the series, leaving some betting promises on the bill.  

    In the first division, Naughtytiltheend was racing first over last week, showing spunk, but could not prevail. A perfect trip wins it for her.  

    The second division Hula’s Z Tam gets into the series late with a good post and must be respected.  

    The third Matchmaker mile is a battle of the inside pair, Ginger And Fred and Anndrovette. If they defeat one another with tiring exchanges, look for Arctic Fire N to win her first of the season at a good price in a tight, six-horse field.  

    The nightcap offers a good shot for Summer Snow. She made a strong first-over move last time out going after the leader. If she gets a pocket trip here, she will be in it.

    Cal Exotic

    The April 13 no-takeout Pick 4 at Cal-Expo could have the following contenders in the mix. Here they are, with comments, for your consideration.

    Leg 1
    (8) Wicked Beach got on the toteboard last week but should have won it for his many supporters. He may enjoy a better price winning from post 8, wince two inside of him could muster support. 

    Leg 2
    Three failed favorites from the week before show up in this field and yet it is (7) Bo Knows Power that looks the most promising. He finished third after a strong outside duel last week, posted at 9-1 and could be a very good price here. Single him to keep the price down and defy the obvious choices.

    Leg 3
    (7) Persuade Me had a tough start last week, finished fourth as the choice and deserves a big shot here. The faint possibility of (8) Nirvana Gold, 171-1 last week, raised a few eyebrows early in the mile as he fired a huge launch to the lead, though wide, and held a bit after that. If it was a warning sign, we saw it and add him to the ticket. 

    Leg 4
    (2) Big Guy Two Win was 13-1 and also fired big early to send up a flair for this week. (5) Hiho Legacy should be forgiven for failing at 2-1, just getting a piece of the purse, and be part of this conglomeration.  

    Ray Cotolo contributed to this edition.

  • The 'Key Race' and Havre Disgrace

    POSTED By Derek Simon
    Many moons ago, in his master work “Betting Thoroughbreds,” Steve Davidowitz coined the term “Key Race” to describe a race that featured an inordinate number of next-out winners. According to Davidowitz, these winners are generally not coincidental.

    “Either [the Key Race] was superior to the designated class or else it contained an unusually fit group of horses. In either case, that’s important information,” the author wrote.

    Apparently the Daily Racing Form agreed, as that esteemed publication soon began italicizing the names of next-out winners in its result charts and past performances.

    Yet, by its very nature, the Key Race Method suffers from one very large and significant drawback: typically, by the time an event can confidently be deemed a Key Race it has lost its value as a predictive tool. After all, what good is it to discover a particularly strong race after half a dozen horses have already won their next start? Not only that, but given how infrequently horses compete today, it can take several weeks or even months to determine whether a past contest qualifies as a Key Race.

    Hence, I decided to come up with a method of assessing Key Races that doesn’t require validation after the fact. Like Davidowitz’s initial technique, however, I wanted to keep it simple, so that even novice horseplayers could judge the merits of a particular race with just a modicum of time and effort.

    Here’s how it works:
    A) Using the result chart from a horse’s last race, find the median finishing position for all the entrants in their prior race. This information can be found in the leftmost column following the (abbreviated) track name. For example, by examining the chart below, one will discover that On Lockdown finished fifth in his last race, which was run at Oaklawn Park (OP) on March 15, 2012.

    Note: For those who don’t have kids in school, the median is simply the middle value of an ordered array of numbers. If the array is even, it is the average of the two values closest to the middle.

    B) Divide the number of entrants, or the field size, by the figure obtained above to get the Key Race Rating.



    (Click on image to enlarge)

    That’s all there is to it; the higher the rating, the better the race was for the class. Notice I said “for the class.” Keep in mind that these Key Race Ratings need to be viewed in light of the overall level of the race. A high rating in a $15,000 claiming event does not make a horse a contender against a rival that earned a much lower figure in a Grade I affair — it’s just common sense. However, in races featuring horses that last raced against similar competition, the ratings can be invaluable. To illustrate this, let’s take a look at the two most dominant female performers of the new millennium — Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta:



    (Click on image to enlarge)



    (Click on image to enlarge)

    Now, before I discuss these brilliant racehorses, let me start by saying that the following is not an endorsement for — or an indictment against — one or the other. Both horses were great in their own way. This is simply a demonstration of my Key Race Rating method in action, using two horses that even the most casual of racing fans are sure to recognize.

    So, with that out of the way, the first thing I did was compute the Key Race Ratings for each of Rachel Alexandra’s and Zenyatta’s Grade I starts in 2009 (again, the idea is to compare apples to apples).

    Not surprisingly, it turns out that Zenyatta faced her biggest challenge in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (12.0 KRR), while Rachel received her staunchest test in the Haskell Invitational (7.0 KRR). Of course, some might argue that the Woodward, which featured older males, was a tougher race than the Haskell, which was restricted to three-year-olds, but I beg to differ. Whether viewed before or after the race, the 2009 Woodward simply did not stack up to previous editions of that storied race.

    Outside of Rachel Alexandra herself, only Cool Coal Man ever won another race. Subtracting those two horses from the equation, the other six Woodward entrants were winless in a combined 21 subsequent starts. Even worse, they hit the board (finished third or better) just five times.

    And Rachel was the one that many claimed was “done in” by the Woodward… go figure.

    Anyway, based on the whole of their campaigns, the data indicates that Rachel Alexandra faced stiffer competition (4.3 median KRR) than did Zenyatta (2.9 median KKR) and that was borne out by the number of next-out winners their individual races produced.

    Zenyatta’s four Grade I starts saw only three follow-up winners (an average of 0.8 per start), whereas Rachel’s five Grade I forays witnessed six follow-up winners (1.2 per start). More importantly, a bet on each of Rachel Alexandra’s vanquished rivals in their next start would have produced a return on investment (ROI) of 1.3 percent; Zenyatta’s defeated foes produced a -38.4 percent ROI.

    Hopefully, this comparison highlights the merit of assessing the strength of a race before, rather than after, it has been run. Handicappers that use my Key Race Rating method will not only find unusually strong fields at a particular class level, but also incredibly weak ones.

    These class-within-a-class distinctions will surely add to one’s understanding of the game… not to mention one’s bottom line.

    Something Amiss with Havre De Grace?

    All the weeping and gnashing of teeth over weight assignments from the connections of Havre De Grace has made me wonder: is something amiss with the defending Horse of the Year?

    The circumstantial evidence suggests there may, in fact, be a problem — and that the griping over weights is simply a smokescreen, a convenient excuse not to run.

    As I pointed out on my podcast, Havre De Grace’s late speed rations (LSRs) started going south in last year’s Woodward Stakes, when she faced males for the first time. After recording LSRs ranging from 0 to -2 from May 10, 2010 until July 16, 2011 (the date of the Delaware Handicap, when the weight complaints first started), the daughter of Saint Liam hasn’t earned an LSR greater than -4 since.



    (Click on image to enlarge)

    What’s more, from the time Larry Jones took over her training in 2011 until just prior to the Woodward, Havre De Grace recorded 18 workouts — nine of which were “bullets” (the fastest work of the day at the distance). Since the Woodward, Havre De Grace has worked out 12 times, earning just two bullets.



    (Click on image to enlarge)

    Free Handicapping Reports

    04/14/12 Hawthorne Win Factor Report
    04/14/12 Oaklawn Park Win Factor Report
    04/14/12 Oaklawn Park Pace Profile Report (selected races)

  • TCI weekend recap: no love for I'll Have Another

    POSTED By Unknown
    It seems as if the TCI boys are more impressed with losing efforts then winning ones, as their top two horses--Union Rags and Creative Cause--both lost their final Kentucky Derby prep races. Gemologist did move up to third off his Wood Memorial victory, but I'll Have Another is deep in ninth following a Santa Anita Derby triumph..

    I've already discussed my views on the weekend stakes action, so I won't steal too much more of TCI's thunder except to say that I think if you like Creative Cause enough to put him second then I'll Have Another deserves to be higher than ninth. He's run a faster race overall this year, and even though the Santa Anita Derby came back slow--it was a layoff and a big top, so I see I'll Have Another as more likely to improve off that effort versus Creative Cause who is going backwards in a shorter range of time.


    I'm torn on Gemologist and Alpha. The former seems a certain underlay to me come Derby day, but Alpha was close enough in the Wood that he's intriguing at twice the price. Sort of shades of Empire Maker-Funny Cide there (except back in 2003 I was all in on Empire Maker!). One thing's for sure: I don't like anyone behind either of the top two finishers in the Wood and Santa Anita Derby.

    The worst news of the weekend is that TwinSpires.com Triple Crown SHOWdown lost its last player alive for the $1-million when Currency Swap failed to hit the board in the Illinois Derby. Two players are now tied with 16 shares each and are in great position to win Kentucky Derby tickets. To convert those shares into cash, however, they'll need to successfully wager $20 to show on each of the Triple Crown races. 

    I'll join TCI live on Wednesday at Keeneland following the Blue Grass draw, so that should be fun.

  • What are the odds?

    POSTED Apr 9, 2012 By Unknown
    As much as the racing March 31-April 1 juggled the Kentucky Derby picture, the action on April 7 mostly held up the status quo, as nothing that happened in the Illinois Derby, Santa Anita Derby, or Wood Memorial inspired me to change my top nine horses o
    As much as the racing March 31-April 1 juggled the Kentucky Derby picture, the action on April 7 mostly held up the status quo, as nothing that happened in the Illinois Derby, Santa Anita Derby, or Wood Memorial inspired me to change my topnine horses on the Road to Louisville, though I did usurp Mark Valeski in tenth with Rousing Sermon just because I like the latter's two-year-old form and style to maybe land in the gimmicks at a huge price if he gets in.

    Overall I was more impressed with the Santa Anita Derby than the Wood Memorial, though that's sort of a self-fulfilling prophecy since I've said for the past few weeks that I think the better group of horses is out West. I haven't been high on Alpha all year, so Gemologist barely beating him doesn't really get the juices flowing. It's possible that both Wood horses are better than I'm giving them credit for, and if that's the case then I'll be a likely loser come May 5 (if Gemologist or Alpha does win then hopefully it's Rousing Sermon finishing second).

    One of the more interesting discussions to erupt after Saturday's action was not about who is most likely to win the Kentucky Derby but who the public would think is most likely to win. With the Blue Grass Stakes and Arkansas Derby still to go plus three weeks of preparation after that, several things can happen to change the odds:
    ·        Upsets in either race
    o       If a horse who needed a win to get in the Derby wins then he is likely 15- or 20-to-1 at best for the Derby, but that means a 50-to-1 bubble horse might be out, which means the price(s) on the favorite(s) go(es) up as well. This is a good thing supporters of horses like Union Rags, Gemologist, etc.
    ·        Hansen airmails
    o       Union Rags’ third-place finish left Hansen a logical alternative among individual interests inpool 3 of the future wager, and even though he was 8.4-to-1 that day, I think he’d need to win the Blue Grass impressively to be 8-to-1 on May 5. 10-to-1 seems more likely with a solid effort.
    ·        Bodemeister wins
    o       Bodemeister needs an Arkansas Derby win to clinch a Derby stall, but such a win would not be an upset. If he’s not favored in the Arkansas Derby he’ll be among the top choices. A truly remarkable performance not only gets him to Kentucky but also makes him one of the top choices.
    ·        Secret Circle dominates
    o       Secret Circle is probably the most under-the-radar Bob Baffert-trainer colt with multiple stakes wins in the history of the Hall of Fame conditioner’s career. Most horses with Secret Circle’s resume for this trainer would be an overwhelming favorite for the Derby at this stage, but Secret Circle just can’t seem to shake the idea that he’s a sprinter. It doesn’t help that back in February Jason Shandler and Brad Free both quoted Baffert as saying that Secret Circle isn’t a Derby horse. Still, a big win in Arkansas certainly would suppress his price.

    The big question with any of the above scenarios is to figure out as prices change whether the longshots get longer or the favorites do. Recent history tells us that the crowd is reticent to send horses off at higher than 60-to-1 odds—even on horses who should be 200-to-1. Three horses at 50-to-1 who should be 60-to-1 each means a horse who should pay $14 to win might pay $15. Yes,the favorite-longshot bias is alive and well in the Kentucky Derby.

    So here’s a first look at how I think the odds will shake out on May 5. I’ve left three spots blank and averaged them out to 30-to-1 because I already have three horses at 50-to-1 and if any of those horses don’t go then their replacements (e.g. Mark Valeski, El Padrino) are likely to be less odds. Rousing Sermon is an exception since he’d be 40-to-1 or more.

    It’s crazy to think that the favorite could be 7-to-1 in this race, but unlike most years when that would be a damning statement, for me this year it’s a testament of how strong this group is. If I were to make Union Rags and Gemologist both 5-to-1 and Take Charge Indy, the top two from the Santa Anita Derby, and Hansen 8-to-1 then the odds elsewhere skyrocket, and that’s if Bodemeister and Secret Circle don’t impress.

  • Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes

    POSTED Apr 7, 2012 By Frank Cotolo
    Another weekend takes us closer to the end of these early season features and we continue to follow them with aplomb. Going to mid-April we engage in spot plays as well as series play. 

    Last weekend from Frank and Ray Cotolo at Twitter brought a few juicy winners from the overnights at Canadian outposts, from the best to the lowest prices, we offered followers:  

    April 1

    Fraser Downs
    Oil Town Amelia, $40.90
    Fivethirtysomewhere, $22.80
    Rich As Promise, $13.90
    Tax Relief, $11.80

    Flamboro Downs
    Blue Suede Shoes, $22.20
    Random Mission, $5.70

    April 1

    Fraser Downs
    Red Star Tyson, $11.30
    Promise To Lynette, $9.10  

    Connect with our Twitter team for late suggestions you can use for win, place or show and in all exotic. Follow and and wager from TwinSpires. Get onto our mailing list to learn how to get upcoming horses to watch by clicking here. 

    We were again pushing for good prices in a half-dozen George Morton Levy splits at Yonkers. Remember that throughout the series free for all Brisnet F.A.S.T. sheets are available. Our winners were Fitz’s Z Tam at $10.60 and Art Z at $5.60. Code Word finished second (at 7-1) to the 1-5 Sea Venture for a $10.80 exacta. Three others we chose were off the board. 

    On April 6 our Matchmaker choices at Yonkers all finished third, with the exception of the See You At Peelers edition, where she won and our choices completed the triple, though it was only worth $24.     

    At Woodbine we were right to try to defeat San Pail in the Glorys Comet Final but our choice to do so was not the foil. Frenchfrysnvinegar was fourth as Mister Herbie won by a hair.  In the Spring Championship Final, Aracache Hanover was hung out to dry early and finished off the board; the even-money choice won the race.  

    At Cal Expo, we had only one winner in the Pick 4—Serious Art ($4.80). In that race our other ticket member, Coal Younger, finished second for a $9 exacta. There were no huge surprises as the Pick 4 paid a mere $158.50.

    News And Notes

    Raceway Park is the next harness venue opening for the big spring season. The meet begins on April 28 and rolls through Sept. 16 on Saturdays and Sundays. 

    The 2012 season at Plainridge Racecourse begins April 21 with a 1 p.m. post. Racing is then presented on April 24 and April 26 at 4 p.m., with the traditional Monday-Tuesday-Thursday schedule beginning on April 30.   

    The first bits of news are flowing from the Hambletonian Trail, 2012. 

    Possess The Will, frosh-colt trotting champ of 2011, from the first crop of 2007 Hambletonian-winner Donato Hanover, tops a list of 108 trotting colts eligible to the 87th Hambletonian, the richest and most prestigious event in harness racing.

    The $1.7 million Hambletonian and the filly companion stakes, the $850,000 Hambletonian Oaks, will be raced on Saturday afternoon, Aug. 4, at the New Meadowlands Racetrack. Eliminations, if necessary, will be raced Saturday, July 28.

    Uncle Peter, the two-year-old Breeders Crown winner over Possess The Will, is also among the eligibles. The Hambletonian Society, which has owned and serviced the race since its inception in 1926, received 213 total payments for the 2012 Hambletonian and “Oaks” events, hosted by the Meadowlands Racetrack since 1981.

    The Hambletonian trail commences Saturday, May 5, with the Dexter Cup at Freehold Raceway. As we have over the past few years, this department at TwinSpires, in association with the Hambletonian Society, will cover the races leading to the finals fields as well as cover the events live from the Meadowlands.

    (Cartoon by Thom Pye)

  • Derek Simon's Free Weekend Win Factor Plays

    POSTED Apr 6, 2012 By Derek Simon


    THOROUGHBRED SELECTIONS

    Aqueduct (race 3)

    Maiden special weight races are often tricky because they feature horses with good recent form vs. those with great potential. GUYANA STAR DWEEJ is one of the former. However, his recent form is so good it simply cannot be overlooked — especially since the colt is 5-1 on the morning line.

    In his most recent outing, Guyana Star Dweej recorded a last race-best -5 late speed ration (LSR) and matched today’s race par with a 91 Brisnet speed figure (BSF); the one to beat.

    Those looking for a price might want to consider keying MR. BEER GOGGLES in the exotics, as his race on March 23 was very good (83 BSF, -7 LSR). True, it came against $45K claimers, but at this level that is a relatively minor consideration.

    I’m also intrigued by CREPUSCOLO if the price is right.

    BET(S): WIN on 4 at odds of 5-2 or greater. WIN/PLACE on 1 at odds of 8-1 or greater.

    Aqueduct (race 6)

    I think STEEL BRIDGE could get overlooked in this spot and he shouldn’t be. Last time he was bumped at the start, yet still ran deceptively well given the slow splits (-7 LSR). Prior to that he was favored against similar (and finished a close fourth) on Nov. 24 and was third with a 94 BSF (equaling today’s par) and -4 LSR before that.

    Toss DAN AND SHEILA’s race in the Wood, which wasn’t as bad as it looked, and you have a horse to be reckoned with.

    LA BERNARDIN is a Darley entrant that earned a 99 BSF and 0 LSR last time, but he did it by setting a slug-slow pace. At 3-1 on the morning line, I need to be sure that he can run equally well facing tougher early competition.

    COSMIC KING is no win machine, but fits very well against the likes of these.

    BET(S): WIN on 2 at odds of 4-1 or greater.

    Aqueduct (race 9)

    See my latest column for comments on this race.

    BET(S): WIN on 5 at odds of 3-1 or greater.

    Hawthorne (race 1)

    Although his connections give me pause, VAN DEMON’s last race towers above the recent efforts of those that have started. Not only did he compete against straight maidens in that March 23 affair, but he also recorded a -16 early speed ration (ESR) while pressing the pace five-wide that day. With a decent break (he’s had problems in that area in the past), the son of Shore Breeze should be able to dictate the fractions, which makes him the one to beat. VERMAJO RIVER closed well down the lane last time and looks like the main threat. FALCON POINT is consistent… but that’s not saying much in a $15K maiden claimer.

    BET(S): WIN on 5 at odds of 3-1 or greater.

    STANDARDBRED SELECTIONS

    Balmoral Park (race 8)

    NATIVE HOTSPUR and ODDS ON MOINET rank 1-2 on my Win Factor (computerized fair odds) line and the former is 5-1 on the morning line.

    BET(S): WIN/PLACE on 3 at odds of 2-1 or greater.

    Cal-Expo (race 2)

    ALBION is a Win Factor Report (WFR) “Key Selection.”

    BET(S): WIN on 5 at even (1-1) odds or greater.

    Freehold Raceway (race 9)

    BOLERO TOPGUN has a huge class advantage against these.

    BET(S): WIN on 2 at even (1-1) odds or greater.

    Northfield Park (race 10)

    Based on their morning line odds, CROWN HEIGHTS (8/1), SJ'S PATRIOT (20/1) and NORMIE N (15/1) could offer value in this spot.

    BET(S): WIN on 8 at odds of 9-2 or greater and/or WIN on 4 at odds of 5-1 or greater and/or WIN on 5 at odds of 6-1 or greater.

    Rosecroft Raceway (race 1)

    ROCKET ROSY is a WFR “Speed Racer.”

    BET(S): WIN on 4 at even (1-1) odds or greater.

    Derek Simon’s 2012 Free Selection Stats

    Races (Selections): 23 (23)
    Wins: 7
    Rate: 30.4%
    Return: $26.80
    ROI: -41.74%

    (This year's published selections through 4/6/2012)

  • The weekend preview w/ TCI & Toga Tout

    POSTED By Unknown
    One of the hardest things to do while watching horse racing live is to keep track of all the action via satellite. This is rarely an issue on days such as the Kentucky Derby or Breeders' Cup, but it's often a big deal the first two weekends of Keeneland each year when Triple Crown/Breeders' Cup prep races abound coast to coast.

    The Paddock Bar has become a mission control of sorts for me and my friends, as we try to monitor all the action happening near and far with a combination of TVs, mobile devices, Twitter, and moxie.

    The action will no doubt be fast and furious come late Saturday afternoon when stakes commence not only in Lexington for the $500,000 Ashland Stakes but also from New York to Chicago to Southern California with major Derby prep races scheduled for 5:15 p.m. EDT (Wood Memorial), 5:30 (Santa Anita Derby), and 6:46 (Illinois Derby).

    I heartily recommend not missing our weekly dose of Triple Crown Insider and Toga Tout so that we all can be prepared to crush these races when they come up.



    As for me, I expect my strategy to vary among each of the prep races.

    In the Wood, I'm zeroing in on My Adonis as a top selection with plans to also play around with The Lumber Guy. I'll play the race to beat at least one of Alpha and Gemologist in the top three with neither in the top slot in the all-stakes Pick 4 unless I beat favorites such as Broadway's Alibi or Caleb's Posse elsewhere.

    I'm fond of saying "boxes are for shoes" when people tell me they played a race by boxing horses in an exacta or trifecta, but I won't be able to resist such a play in the Illinois Derby since Currency Swap is an extremely vulnerable morning line favorite, and Ring It Up, Z Rockstar, Our Entourage, Morgan's Guerrilla, and Explain all look capable at double digit odds (except Our Entourage, but I can't let him beat me with another price even at underlaid win odds because I've been on him for awhile now).

    I see the Santa Anita Derby as the most likely of the three races to chalk out. Creative Cause is a worthy favorite and most likely winner, but I'll be pulling for I'll Have Another in the top spot, and I haven't given up on Midnight Transfer enough not to use him in some capacity either. I hope Paynter sucks money but wish he were at Hawthorne since he'd be the favorite there and still too slow.

    Of course, I can't wait until Saturday to get down--not with Keeneland opening on Friday. Derek Simon has some good info on the Keeneland meeting in his most recent blog post (at bottom), and I've included my selections for each of the ten races below.


    I'll rock an "all 'A'" Pick 5 for sure late and not sure what I'll do early since I'm pretty deep in most races. Maybe some spot plays or maybe scratches will help get the Pick 4s down to manageable levels. Either way, should be fun.

  • A Big Blunder and Three Big Derby Preps

    POSTED Apr 5, 2012 By Derek Simon
    On Oct. 14, 2001, a 24-year-old quarterback making his third NFL start was struggling. His team was 1-3 and had just lost the lead to the visiting San Diego Chargers, a sorry squad of rookies and rejects that had finished a woeful 1-15 the previous season.

    After misfiring on nine of his first 15 pass attempts, it was clear to many that the University of Michigan grad had reached a make-it-or-break-it point in his career. He had failed to throw a touchdown pass in either of his first two starts and entered the Chargers game with a lowly 67.9 quarterback rating. By way of comparison, Tim Tebow — a guy all the experts say can’t hit the side of a barn with a grenade, much less a football — recorded a 93.4 QB rating in his first couple of games as a starter.

    But our valiant hero refused to go down without a fight. He completed 27 of his last 39 tosses for 301 yards and led his team to an overtime victory, despite trailing by 10 points with 3:39 left to play in the fourth quarter.

    If you haven’t already guessed, that quarterback’s name is Tom Brady and, since that monumental come-from-behind victory, the New England Patriots’ superstar has accumulated a record of 136-40 as a starter, including two Super Bowl wins.

    Sadly, jockey Chantal Sutherland is no Tom Brady.

    In what I speculated may have been a career-defining ride in last weekend’s Dubai World Cup, Sutherland dropped the ball… screwed up… fumbled… struck out — pick your favorite analogy.

    Riding Game On Dude, one of the pre-race favorites and a horse that had given Sutherland perhaps her biggest career victory in the 2011 Santa Anita Handicap, the 36-year-old Canadian rider did the inexplicable. Instead of establishing a forward position in the early going — Game On Dude has been first or second at the first call in 12 of his 13 races for trainer Bob Baffert — Sutherland allowed the five-year-old gelding to saunter out of the gate, taking him out of his game and forcing the son of BC Classic winner Awesome Again to go extremely wide on the turn for home.



    (Click on image to enlarge)

    The first quarter of the $10 million World Cup was run in 25.72 seconds and Game On Dude was three lengths behind the leader, Transcend. Even allowing for the fact that the timer starts when the gates are sprung at Meydan Racecourse (most tracks have a run-up distance before the clock starts ticking), 25.72 seconds is slow... like cast-of-the -“Jersey Shore” slow.

    Hence, there was absolutely no excuse for Sutherland to be in the position she was. And her passivity put her and her mount squarely behind the 8-ball when Transcend — quite predictably, I might add — accelerated over the next two furlongs while carving out a :49.94 opening half-mile (+3 early speed ration).

    Whether she’ll retain the mount on Game On Dude remains to be seen, but one thing seems abundantly clear: Sutherland is not yet ready for the big time.

    The Fantastic Three



    (Click on image to enlarge)

    Three of the biggest Kentucky Derby preps — the Wood Memorial, Illinois Derby and Santa Anita Derby — are slated for this weekend. Below is a brief look at each:

    Wood Memorial

    ALPHA and GEMOLOGIST figure to vie for favoritism, but based on what I’ve seen from STREET LIFE so far, he’s the horse to beat. After coming from the clouds to break his maiden on Feb. 11, the son of Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense made his next start in the $75,000 Broad Brush Stakes and, again, closed like his papa to win going away — earning a 95 Brisnet speed figure (the Wood par is 107) and 0 late speed ration (LSR) in the process.

    Illinois Derby

    A number of horses could win this event, but two in particular intrigue me: OUR ENTOURAGE and MORGAN’S GUERRILLA. The latter improved both his ESR and LSR last time and appears to have enough early zip to dictate the pace in a race known to be kind to frontrunners. The former switches back to the main track after a scintillating win (95 Brisnet speed figure, +3 LSR) on the green.

    Santa Anita Derby

    Obviously CREATIVE CAUSE is the one to beat, but I’m intrigued by LONGVIEW DRIVE, who I think has a lot of talent and could rebound from a very dull effort in the weaker division of the Southwest Stakes.

    Free Handicapping Reports

    04/06/12 Keeneland Win Factor Report
    04/07/12 Aqueduct Win Factor Report
    04/07/12 Aqueduct Pace Profile Report (races 3, 6-10)
    04/07/12 Hawthorne Pace Profile Report (races 1, 8-9)
    04/07/12 Parx Racing Win Factor Report
    04/07/12 Santa Anita Park Win Factor Report
    04/07/12 Simulcast Win Factor Report (various tracks and races)

    Keeneland Opens

    Live racing is scheduled to return to Keeneland Racecourse on Friday, April 6, so I decided to scour that track’s outstanding PolyCapping Database in search of some betting gold nuggets.

    Here’s what I found:

    * Favorites that last worked out over the Keeneland strip have won 72, or 44.4 percent, of the 162 maiden special weight (MSW) sprint races (less than a mile) carded since 2006 — good for an ROI of 22.59 percent.

    * It might be wise to avoid favorites in stakes races. Since 2006, they have won just 25.1 percent of the time and produced a -33.27 percent ROI. Stakes favorites switching from the grass to Keeneland’s Polytrack are an even worse bet: just 19.4 percent wins and a -55.65 percent ROI.

    * Favorites in claiming races that last raced on dirt and have not had a subsequent workout over the Keeneland surface are 14 of 64 since 2006, with a -38.59 percent ROI.

    * Since 2006, $2 exacta payoffs have averaged $121.81, $2 trifectas $984.59 and $2 superfectas $5,629.24.

  • April Pacing Appendages

    POSTED Apr 4, 2012 By Frank Cotolo
    With the Grand Circuit looming, the George Morton Levy Memorial Pacing Series remains the American harness feature, along with the Blue Chip Matchmaker Series at Yonkers Raceway. We take to round three this first full weekend of April. 

    Friday and Saturday, April 6 and April 7, the males and the mares battle in more divisions of the two series with six episodes for the males on Satureday and  five fields for the femmes. Favorites have been scourging the series but we won’t let that get us down; our history of choosing well-paying winners in both of these series is great, so we will be eyeing upsets again, as explained below.  

    At Woodbine on the last night of March, the Glorys Comet and Spring Pacing Championships present leg 2 of their expensive shows. Horse of the Year San Pail won the first “Comet” leg in his return to the races and there is enough turmoil among the mares to support upsets.  

    Woodbine, players on TwinSpires continue to collect TSC Elite points at the rate of 10X with successful $10 win tickets this Saturday once again.  

    At Cal-Expo on Friday, we the exclusive TwinSpires-Cal-Expo no-takeout Pick 4 offers another shot at a big pot of profits.   

    Levy Landslides


    The April 7 Yonkers program is again laden with “Levy” legs and once again we will analyze the battles.  Free brisnet F.A.S.T. sheets are available for the Levy races by clicking here.

    Race 2

    Code Word was hung as the choice from the outside last week and from the outside may have problems while Sea Venture attempts another wire job. However, poised to put in a good mile after falling a bit short in round one, Code Word may still be dismissed by bettors due to the very post that is his burden. This alone could make him worth it. Sea Venture could wind up in the exotic mix and using Gallant Yankee could deliver a decent triple.  

    Race 4

    Clear Vision dueled and was short because of it last week. That could be a problem again with River Shark gunning for a top spot. This could make a case for Fitz’s Z Tam, who made a strong brush and got into contention last time.  

    Race 5

    This third group is packed with power and you could create any number of scenarios for six of seven. Giddy Up Delight could be the best odds of the sextet, so keep an eye on Mark Ford’s stallion; he is using Mark Macdonald at the reins and the two are working well. 

    Race 6

    We were so disappointed in Valentino last week. Why is he so tepid? He should be winging. Art Z could not take Atochia last out but that one is not here and with Southern Allie leading, those two could be the exacta elements, though no big payoff will be the reward.

    Race 7

    Another team of hot pacers forces us to once again try with Art Two D Two. This would be a major upset but it is not so far fetched. Some major shuffling could go on here and if Art Two D Two saves some ground he may have just enough in that short stretch to pass tired ones. Four here threaten each other for duels, so go with the longshot here; his odds will be higher than his chances. 

    Race 8

    Real Nice was tons the best again last week and meets the softest of the sextet this week. The only unknown is Twin B Legend, a strongman from Canada coming to terms with these elders on the half mile. He may be in deep but he may also take to the going better than we would have imagined, resulting in one of those great upsets that teetered on the mysterious.

    ‘Match’ Mavellettes


    The Blue Chip Matchmaker for mares are the performers at Friday’s Yonkers’ features, with all eyes on the early prowess of See You At Peelers.  

    In the first division Pancleefandarpels needs to wake up and can. She should’ve been aggressive last week but lost momentum due to interference. It is a benefit to be on the rail.  

    The second division Mystical Diva finds herself in a field of nobodies and is the only one capable of beating the favorite.  

    The third Matchmaker mile should feature Krispy Apple. She was shuffled back slightly as the favorite last week and may be bet less and do better tonight.   

    The evening's fourth “Match” mile once again we endorse Oceans Motion. She didn’t get rolling with the outside post burdening her last week and could be a monster from post 1 in this mix. Notable is Note Blue Chip who tried but couldn't close from post 7 in round two. Post 3 should help.  

    The final fray of the evening focuses upon Hula’s Z Tam. Although the draw is poor, she should be able to beat Anndrovette a second time.

    Canadian Chapters


    The Glorys Comet Final will no doubt be a bettors’ onslaught for San Pail. Last week we went with a 76-1 trotter to upset and that one, Frenchfrysnvinegar, was third. He needed that race and this could be a good spot for the great “Pail” to be beaten by a trip and his own overconfidence. At least that is a good scenario to go against a 1-10 shot.  

    The Spring Pacing Championship Final, like the “Comet,” will unevenly tip the win wagers to Golden Receiver. To nudge this very likely prohibitive choice a bit, let’s take a small shot with Aracache Hanover. Second to the public choice in the March 31 round, this guy is fundamentally as good as his foe and better than the rest of this field, at least on paper. If his new season is going to get rolling, what better place than here to pick up dollars and pay a few to win, also.

    Cal Exotic

    The April 6 no-takeout Pick 4 at Cal-Expo is Race12 through Race 15. Here are contenders for your consideration.

    Leg 1
    (1) Freedom Art just missed last out and must be in this mix from the rail. (6) Blissful Winds was second by 13 lengths, best of the rest, at 17-1, and could start this ticket off with fireworks. 

    Leg 2
    (3) Serious Art should have taken last week’s effort and returns here to make amends. (6) Coal Younger is more talented than his most recent pair and may be available to pay far more than his chances indicate.

    Leg 3
    (4) Hey Scoop got the noose last week and had to settle for fourth. In this group, a clean trip murders ‘em.   

    Leg 4
    (7) Minettastuppence made two moves last week and they both cost her dearly, as she finished fifth. Perhaps the public will penalize her and we will get a price to cash a very good pool-profiting ticket. 

    Ray Cotolo contributed to this edition.

  • A look back before the look ahead
    musings on the Louisiana, Florida Derbys

    POSTED By Unknown
    For those looking forward to a big weekend of Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brand prep races, Wednesday is a big day as Aqueduct, Hawthorne Race Course, and Santa Anita Park will each draw the Wood Memorial Stakes, Illinois Derby, and Santa Anita Derby, respectively, but before we look ahead to these major races on the Triple Crown trail, let's have a final look back at the first big weekend of the last round of preps.

     

    MY TAKE: The TCI boys lead with Hero of Order's upset in the Louisiana Derby and question whether there was an inside speed bias that helped the 109.40-to-1 longshot maintain his lead throughout the length of the stretch.

    My man, Frank Angst, is savant-like when it comes to identifying biases (and more important how to make money off of them when horses run back), so I should probably get his take first before offering a strong opinion, but I can't help but see a 13.47 final furlong and think that the horses behind Hero of Order just aren't good enough.

    By comparison, Nate's Mineshaft made all when winning the New Orleans Handicap and came home in 12.38 seconds. Hero of Order carried four more pounds as a three-year-old, but still--1.09 seconds in a furlong is quite a difference.

    You'll likely get a very generous price on any horse exiting the Louisiana Derby who happens to make the gate in Kentucky, though Hero of Order would need to supplement for $200,000 AND have less than 20 horses enter since early & late nominations get preference over supplements. If you believe the Mark Valeski excuse that he lost a shoe (or, rather, believe that the excuse excuses his loss) then maybe you say he blows by Hero of Order, wins by open lengths, and is a buzz horse for Kentucky. I could see using him if he's a bomb. Rousing Sermon can be this year's Giacomo--useful graded form at two and runs his race each time at three. Maybe he'll finally be good enough on Derby day? At 50-to-1 if he's in the gate, he's definitely a horse I'm using.

    The Florida Derby was disappointing from the standpoint that I identified Take Charge Indy as one of the two fastest (along with El Padrino) three-year-olds this year but didn't play him nearly strongly enough given that information and his price.

    As for Union Rags, Julien Leparoux took some grief for his ride on Union Rags, but I lean toward the horse not being good enough versus jockey error. The rail was wide open for Union Rags turning for home, and he just never accelerated like any of his backers would have liked to have seen.

    It's the type of prep race that yes, absolutely he can move forward off of and be a major player in the Kentucky Derby, but I'm going to have to pass on most tickets at an underlaid price. Of course, if Rousing Sermon finishes second then I won't want to miss the exacta with Union Rags on top!

    And lastly, congratulations to David N., who is the last man standing in the TwinSpires.com Triple Crown SHOWdown promotion. David has placed 14 consecutive winning $20 show wagers on major three-year-old races this year and has nine races left to get to the $1-million, including the aforementioned trio this weekend. Good luck, David!