• Multi-race bonanza tonight at Churchill

    POSTED Jun 16, 2012 By Unknown
    As if the Stephen Foster Handicap and three other stakes weren't enough to attract my attention to tonight's Downs After Dark program at Churchill Downs, the Louisville track has made the card even more appealing by adding a Pick 5 and Pick 4 to the proceedings.

    Races 4 and 7 kick off each of the Pick 5s with Pick 4s starting in races 1, 3, 5, and 8. Add rolling Pick 3s and doubles to the mix, and it's a multi-race player's dream especially since the Pick 3s, 4s, and 5s each have a $.50 minimum. TwinSpires.com has gotten in on the act, too, offering a 1-million points bonus on each of the four Pick 4s.

    It's enough horizontal action to make Jenna Jameson jealous, and it also means some races are more important than others. In this case, all eyes will be on the Stephen Foster not only because of its $400,000 purse and likelihood of determining the leader of the older male division but also because it is part of both Pick 5s and two Pick 4s (the Fleur de Lis is also part of both Pick 5s but only one Pick 4).

    The big question when dealing with both Pick 5s and the middle Pick 4 is what to do with Royal Delta whose best makes her the most likely winner of the Fleur de Lis, but we haven't seen her best this year, and she is almost a certain underlay in all wagering pools.

    Sterling Madame is my top pick, as I think she can have it all her own way under a sweetheart weight assignment of 115 (eight less than Royal Delta's impost and five off what she toted three weeks ago at Prairie Meadows).

    I like a couple prices enough in races 4 & 5 that if I beat the favorites there I'd feel silly not having Royal Delta on those tickets, so she's not a complete toss, but between Centre Court and Wise Dan, Royal Delta is the one I most want to play against especially since she's the shortest morning line price of that trio at 4-to-5.

  • Ahead to the Breeders' Cup

    POSTED Jun 15, 2012 By Unknown
    The Road to the Breeders' Cup World Championships begins in earnest on Saturday with the first of the Win & You're In races for the Breeders' Cup Classic, and it's a solid octet (nine entered but one of the Dans will scratch) led by Wise Dan assuming he starts in favor of his stablemate, Successful Dan.

    The older male group appears solid this year and three-year-olds such as Bodemeister and Union Rags can spice up the Classic division later in the year, but for as exciting as everyone staying healthy would be, it's hard to imagine any North American-based horse having the draw at Breeders' Cup that Black Caviar, Camelot, or Frankel would.

    The Breeders' Cup has not been shy about trying to land Black Caviar and Frankel for the World Championships on November 2-3 at Santa Anita Park, but what are the chances any of them show up?

    Camelot is certainly the most likely given he is owned by Coolmore, which has not been shy about bringing its absolute best horses to the States. It's trio in 2002 of Rock of Gibraltar (Mile), High Chaparral (Turf), and Hawk Wing (Classic) was easily one of the strongest international contingents ever assembled.

    Frankel's owner Juddmonte is a big supporter of American racing, including the Breeders' Cup, but his participation is certainly more tenuous. It's difficult imagining Frankel's connections risking an undefeated career in our Turf Mile, but winning the Classic to complete an undefeated career could stamp him as the greatest of all time.

    Black Caviar is a major longshot, but the down the hill turf sprint is ideal for her. Seeing her swing wide off that turn and accelerate for home would be worth whatever cost it takes to get there, and it's hard to imagine a shorter-priced favorite on the card (or maybe ever in the history of the Breeders' Cup) if she showed up.

    Unfortunately, it's tough to see that happening. I have Black Caviar at 100-to-1 to be in Arcadia with Camelot 25x more likely at 3-to-1 and Frankel 10x more likely at 9-to-1. At those odds, the chances that all three show up is 4,000-to-1 and the chance that none of them do is 3-to-5.
    Obviously a lot can happen between now and November, including both Frankel and Black Caviar running at Royal Ascot next week.

    As for this weekend, I'll be cheering for whichever Dan is running in the Stephen Foster, as I bet both of them to win the Classic. My take on the Stephen Foster is that Wise Dan is the fastest until he shows he isn't. I'm not over the Moon with the weight assignment (Big Cap winner Ron the Greek gets four pounds, multiple graded stakes winner Nates Mineshaft gets five, and both Nehro and Mission Impazible get seven each), but I like the post for the trip I'd like him to get. Wise Dan is unlikely to be a win play, but he's one I can lean on in the Pick 4s.

    The Stephen Foster closes out an all-stakes Pick 4 and begins the late Pick 4. Check out TwinSpires.com's 4x4 promotion to win up to 4-million points by playing each of the Pick 4s on Saturday at Churchill).

    Joel Cunningham, who didn't like Dullahan in the Belmont Stakes, picks Nehro to win the Stephen Foster. He's certainly a threat running late with the favorable impost.

  • The Kentucky Derby BCS

    POSTED Jun 14, 2012 By Derek Simon
    The Bowl Championship Series (BCS) was implemented in 1998 as a means of getting the best college football teams in the country to compete against each other in designated BCS bowl games, including a national championship contest.

    Growing out of discontent with the former system that often saw top-ranked teams playing inferior opponents in bowl games solely due to conference alliances, the BCS was supposed to put an end to all the postseason bickering over which team was best.

    It has failed miserably and, in fact, is currently under review by the various conference commissioners, who are — once again — seeking a better method.

    Hence, it was with a fair amount of trepidation that I perused the new Kentucky Derby entrant selection method put forth by Churchill Downs Inc. (NASDAQ: CHDN) today (Thursday, June 14).

    Now, in the interest of full disclosure, it should be noted that Churchill Downs owns TwinSpires, which owns the blog site I am writing for. That said, racing is made up of different opinions, so I’m sure the powers-that-be won’t mind me expressing mine… although the guy in the dark suit and sunglasses who’s been peering over my shoulder for the last half-hour has me feeling a little nonplused.

    Anyway, as many of you know, the current system, which considers only graded stakes earnings to determine the pecking order of the top 20 three-year-olds eligible to compete in the Run for the Roses, has long been under fire.

    Critics contend that certain races exert undue influence on the process and that juvenile races, in particular, are given far too much weight.

    Thus, the new point system below:

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    According to a Churchill Downs press release, the “Road to the Kentucky Derby will feature 36 stakes races overall and include 17 marquee events for 3-year-old Thoroughbreds that comprise a compact, 10-week run-up to the first Saturday in May to be known as the ‘Kentucky Derby Championship Series’.”

    “Our primary driving motive is to create new fans for horse racing,” explained CDI Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Bob Evans. “We’re implementing a more fan-friendly, cohesive and simplified system that should create compelling drama and appeal to a wider customer base. Fans, as well as the owners and trainers of the horses, will know exactly which races are included and what races matter the most based on a sliding scale of points.

    “Additionally, the new system, which gives us greater stability, represents historical relevancy and helps to ensure our longstanding mission of assembling the finest group of 3-year-olds in the starting gate for a race at the classic distance of 1 ¼ miles on the first Saturday in May. We want to maximize the quality of the Derby field and protect the integrity of the race, while respecting the tradition and relevance of paths taken to the race by previous Kentucky Derby winners and prominent starters.”

    Here’s the problem with all that: things change… once important preps fade into obscurity, while others become more significant. In the 1970s, three winners of the Wood Memorial and Blue Grass Stakes also won the Kentucky Derby — that’s a half a dozen Derby winners from just those two races in a single decade. In the 30+ years since then, however, only three horses that won either the Wood or Blue Grass found similar success in Louisville on the first Saturday in May.

    What’s more, some of the race classifications and point awards don’t make a lot of sense. There have been just as many winners of the Illinois Derby (0 points to the winner) that have gone on to wear the roses as there have been winners of the Tampa Bay Derby (50 points to the winner) and UAE Derby (100 points to the winner). War Emblem won the Illinois Derby in 2002; Street Sense captured the Tampa Bay Derby in 2007; and no Derby winner has ever won — or even competed — in the UAE Derby.

    Still, it will be interesting to see if more racing fans are engaged and/or find the system fairer than before. As for me, I’m siding with Billy Joel on this one.

     

    Banner Belmont

    For a dying sport, horseracing sure has a lot of life left in it. Despite the scratch of Triple Crown hopeful I’ll Have Another on the eve of what many hoped would be his finest hour, 85,811 people — the sixth-largest crowd in New York racing history (yes, that includes Saratoga) — showed up at Belmont Park to watch Union Rags redeem himself in a thrilling edition of the Belmont Stakes.

    The Michael Matz trainee bested Paynter in a prolonged — as in 26.03-seconds-for-the-final-quarter-mile prolonged — stretch drive and captured the Test of Champions by a neck, returning $7.50 to win.

    “We needed every bit of the mile and a half,” Matz said, referring to the distance of the Belmont Stakes.

    Indeed. And had Paynter not drifted out, Union Rags, who snuck through on the rail his rival had vacated, might have needed even more than 12 furlongs to get the job done.

    “[Paynter] ran his guts out,” noted Ahmed Zayat, owner of the Belmont runner-up as well as Derby and Preakness bridesmaid Bodemeister. “I'm very disappointed we opened the rail for [Union Rags].”

    Paynter’s jockey Mike Smith was disappointed too — in himself.

    “My horse ran terrific,” Smith said. “I just blame myself for the end there. Otherwise I thought I rode great.”

    Personally, although Paynter was my primary win contender in the Belmont Stakes, I don’t blame Smith for losing the race: from a tactical standpoint, he did everything right. Paynter got the easy lead I’d hoped for (-3 ESR) and he battled down the stretch determinedly (-3 LSR).

    He just got beat.

    Still, it was a great race and an even greater day for the sport, which showed that rumors of its impending death are greatly exaggerated.

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    The Early Bird Wins the Race

    On my latest podcast, I discussed the potency of early speed… well, actually, I was going to discuss the potency of early speed, but I ran out of time. So, operating under the belief that a picture is worth a thousand words, I’ve decided to present a real, live example instead:

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    Running in the second race at Prairie Meadows on Friday, June 15, Moma Loca is the kind of horse I love. She’s got great early speed, had a horrendous trip last time and is dropping significantly in class — from a N1X allowance affair into a $12,500 claiming event for non-winners of two races lifetime. I think she stands a great shot of leading from flag fall to finish.

    My Play: WIN on 2 at even (1-1) odds or greater.

    Win Factor Report for Churchill Downs

    My Win Factor Report (computerized fair odds line) for Saturday’s races at Churchill Downs, which include the Grade II Fleur de Lis and the Grade I Stephen Foster, is now available for purchase at Brisnet.com.

  • A North America Cup Contest Or Conquering?

    POSTED Jun 13, 2012 By Frank Cotolo
    It’s a big weekend based mostly on the most expensive event in harness racing. The undercard and the co-features around the tracks this weekend make for promising play (covered in this blog and at our exclusive Hambletonian Trail and Hambletonian Society complementing the TwinSpires platform).

    But all eyes are on Mohawk this Saturday, June 16.

    The $1.5-million North America Cup for 2012 is a curiosity as well as a spectacle for a few reasons, each arguably sound.  

    The likes of Sweet Lou have not been seen over the past few years. As fast as pacers win, Sweet Lou has been among the fastest and he came back at three with a speedy vengeance, winning both of his miles in less than 1:50. We never put speed at a premium but when any horse is superior solely on speed, we take notice.

    Though Sweet Lou has out-paced the rivals he will meet in the 29th edition of this lucrative event for soph-colt pacers, the season is young and the others are still maturing, some in ways that are yet to be revealed. Here is the field in post-position order:

    $1.5-million Pepsi North America Cup

    1-Bettors Edge
    2-Dapper Dude
    3-Time To Roll
    4-Sweet Lou
    5-Thinking Out Loud
    6-State Treasurer
    7-A Rocknroll Dance
    8-Warrawee Needy
    9-Pet Rock
    10-Simply Business

    The elim winners, Sweet Lou and Dapper Dan, got first dibs on chooing post positions. Sweet Lou’s trainer Ron Burke said he chose post 4 because “it gives us a chance to do whatever he wants to do.” Burke refers to the colt, not driver Dave Palone.

    The most revealing thing Burke said recently was that although he was happy with Sweet Lou’s win last week (1:47.4 with three-quarters in a flaming 1:20.1 after going first up to take the lead by a :53 half), one thing bothered him. He said, “There were horses right behind him.”

    Sweet Lou has blown away fields but last week looked a bit sluggish as Warrawee Needy attempted to gain on him late. Sweet Lou was tested a bit getting the top by the half but he worked a bit to ward off the late challenge.

    Also, Burke said the colt had “a little virus” but it cleared up. Stress and a recent, though harmless sickness, place some doubts in the minds of smart handicappers. Make no mistake that neither of these items are enough to count on Sweet Lou burning out come the race. He could be beaten on the pure improvement of others; certainly there are signs that need attention.

    The aforementioned Warrawee Needy qualified with a sub-1:50 mile but scratched from the Upper Canada Cup before the elim, where he was all out for Jody Jamieson (who drove last year’s winner, Up The Credit). He should be given some points for almost pacing down Sweet Lou in his first race of the season.

    Dapper Dude was 9-1 in his winning elim and he saved plenty of ground to do it. Staying out of trouble and well off the pace, John Campbell (who has been in the driver’s seat for a record seven “Cup” victors) steered a classic third-over, slingshot journey to defeat the top five public choices in that mile.

    A Rocknroll Dance has been Sweet Lou’s nemesis since their frosh campaigns. He got to the final. He was in a different elim and as the public choice finished fifth, just the spot he needed to make it into the final. That result came from a grueling first-over trip that found him in severe traffic for his stretch drive. He wound up beating second-choice Michael’s Power, who surprised most by not making the top five in his elim.

    Pet Rock is getting better with every start while not getting the proper public respect. We gave him to you in the Art Rooney and even in a short field he won as an outsider. He was third in his elim, steady but not gaining in his final half.  

    One or two arguments for Thinking Out Loud have surfaced but they include a scenario that promises a perfect trip. No one can predict that case, which could also be true for Bettors Edge, Time To Roll and State Treasurer. 

    Simply Business has only one way to win, racing exactly as he did when we nailed him in last year’s Metro Pace at 20-1. Speed has to burn the better foes to a crisp so that Simply Business can win five or six wide, closing as the only one left with any energy. It is not a likely scenario.

    All of this leaves us with an enigma within a puzzle within a mystery based upon the performance of Sweet Lou. With an easy swoop to the lead within the first half or perhaps even to the top from the start and keeping his speed engine clean through four quarters, if there is more in his tank than he has already shown he could win this in a record sub-1:47.  

    "There has never been a doubt in my mind that he could pace as fast as we saw him go [in his elim] Saturday. I don’t think we’ve seen yet how fast he can go,” Burke said. “That’s maybe his best quality, his ability to recover immediately. Two minutes after he’s off the track you never would know he’d been on the track. I think there are horses that can go with him but his ability to shut himself down and be at rest will separate him from other horses.”

    In the scenario where Sweet Lou doesn’t fire on all cylanders, beware of the prices for A Rocknroll Dance, who should clearly race better than his elim; and Pet Rock, who, all things being equal, should get the best trip. These upset scenarios are the best we feel can happen.

    Mares Mania


    The $376,000 Armbro Flight on the Cup card features Action-Broadway, who is looking to shock the final field and the fans again after a 20-1 upset last year and a 69-1 victory last week. China Pearls is the likely choice but Action-Broadway and Cleopatre Duharas each have a great shot to beat her.

    Action-Broadway did not get an ideal trip last week, was far off the pace, had excess cover and still won at the wire. She can overcome the worst trips and prevail successfully. This race could be one of the best in her career.

    Cleopatre Duharas shocked in her eliminaton, finishing third as a rank 50-1 outsider. The mare (that was our choice last week) will be looking to close as long as she can stay flat. She makes some miscues here and there but is a sharp trotter who was on the Hambletonian Trail last year. She has matured in the sophomore transition and will be looking to do the same thing Action-Broadway did last year, win at a big price.

    Fillies ‘Fan’


    Also on tap Cup night is the $642,000 Fan Hanover final for soph-filly trotters. American Jewel will be looking to give trainer Jimmy Takter back-to-back Fan Hanover wins. Stamped as the likely favorite, she is a front-pacing type but as a younger filly she could go too fast at the wrong time. Two other fillies, which are our selections, will be seeking to make her work for the money.

    Angel Scent was able to clear the front in her elimination to come up slightly short in the end. She gets major post relief this week and won’t have to work so hard to get the top.

    Also in the mix is Pirouette Hanover. She challenged Angel Scent for the front and cleared but lost the lead to a closing Romantic Moment (which was our choice). She should be able to get a pocket trip and swing out late for the spoil.

     Gold Cup

     The free for all pacers get their time to shine in the $100,000 Mohawk Gold Cup on Saturday. As usual, it is a wide-open affair for this division of older pacing males. River Shark and Aracache Hanover look to be able to mark their spot as the top pacer to beat in this year’s battle royale.

    Aracache Hanover returns to his home track. He has done his best mainly in Canada. In fact, he beat Foiled Again in his Molson elimination but went insane fraction in the final to burn out. This horse is a speed demon and it’s very likely that he doesn’t ship well, suggesting why he could prevail in the Bettor’s Delight or the Graduate. He may be able to cut the fractions and let loose in the stretch to show us what he’s really got on his home turf.

    The other horse that will be fierce is River Shark. The six-year-old Mark Ford trainee seems to have hit his top form this year. He can go a first-over mile and still win. He’s been racing in top conditions this year and has a victory in an Invitational at the Meadowlands, where he beat the morning-line favorite We Will See. He will likely be a healthy overlay in this race.

    ‘Trail’ Mix


    Saturday night at Mohawk includes some Hambo eligibles on the warpath for big bucks in the $530,000 Elegant Image Final for the gals and the $351,000 Goodtimes for the guys. Check out the stories on those and Pocono’s Earl Beale, Jr. Memorial elims at our exclusive Hambletonian Trail blog page. All of the stakes featuring eligibles are archived in story form at the Hambletonian Society pages.

    Bookmark those pages, visit them regularly through the spring-summer schedule, aiming for the first Saturday in August.

    Play the Hoosier Mega 10X Pick 4 every Thursday!

    Harness at Hoosier Park is going great guns and so can you when you play the Thursday night programs. TwinSpires players earn 10 TSC Elite Points for all wagers they make on those programs. Also, the Pick 4 features a guaranteed $5,000 pool (races four throuth seven). Post is 5:30 EST.

    Cal Exotic

    Race 9 through Race 12 make up June 15’s no-takeout Pick 4. Let’s look at some of our contenders for a small ticket that could present a big return.

    Leg 1
    (8) Total Up won so big last week that it is hard to believe he could bounce, even from the 8 hole.

    Leg 2
    (7) Jess Or No had a tough start dueling and still went on to take the race into his win column. (9) Cherry Tree Nicole stormed from the 10 hole and went very wide to make a go at the leader but took only the fifth spot. She is a good overlay for this ticket.

    Leg 3
    (1) Barona Destiny was gaining with a strong outside move but could not sustain the pace and deserves a shot here. (7) Vantage stunk up the track as the choice; we’ll ignore that and go with ‘er again.

    Leg 4
    (5) Blissfull Winds was third, backed well, and could fire better in this one. (8) Heartland Express won with a strong brush and may need it again from post 8.

    Ray Cotolo contributed to this edition.

  • The half year in review

    POSTED By Unknown
    Sure, there's still about 2 1/2 weeks remaining for the first half of the calendar year, but the Belmont Stakes closes the book on the Triple Crown and with it the first half of the racing year.

    Triple Crown Insider hints at a turning of the page to the Road to the Breeders' Cup World Championships, but until then Jon Siegel and Joel Cunningham take a final look at the Belmont Stakes.


    My view of the Belmont Stakes is Andy Serling's view, "The Belmont was a race with three real contenders. One (Dullahan) didn't run a step and the other two (Union Rags & Paynter) comprised the exacta. It was hardly a resurrection."

    I see it as far more likely that Bodemeister will threaten I'll Have Another for three-year-old supremacy come the end of the year than will Union Rags, but the better question from a Horse of the Year standpoint is can either Bodemeister or Union Rags run with the top horses in the older male division?

    We'll probably have to wait until fall to answer that question, as both Bodemeister and Union Rags will probably contest races restricted to three-year-olds this summer, but I have to think any wresting of an Eclipse Award from I'll Have Another will have to include a Breeders' Cup win.

    One thing is for sure, unless Black Caviar comes over here and wins the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint followed by the Cigar Mile, it's fairly certain already that the streak of three consecutive female Horses of the Year will come to a close, as I don't see any distaffer in this group capable of running with the likes of Wise Dan, Game On Dude, Shackleford, etc.

    What are you most looking forward to this summer and fall in racing?

  • Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes

    POSTED Jun 9, 2012 By Frank Cotolo
    The weekend preview blog did not hold much for overlays.  

    We had only one posted winner, that one in a Fan Hanover elim at Mohawk. Romantic Moment won it and paid $14.50. We were off the board in the other elim with Rockaround Sue.

    The monstrous Sweet Lou skewered his North America Cup elim field in 1:47.4, leaving no chance for our possible upsets. Sweet Lou, a world record holder at two with a 1:49 mile in last year’s Breeders Crown, broke Well Said’s 1:48.1 mile in the 2009 North America Cup final from the Canadian record book and is now the fastest sophomore pacer of all time.

    We were third in the other elim with Pet Rock.

    There were a bulk of three-year-old trot stakes for colts and fillies. Our Hambletonian Trail blog previews Trail races for both divisions and reviews those events at the Hambletonian Society site.

    At Cal Expo, the no-takeout Pick 4 on June 1 only paid $253.80. Our suggestions finished 6,5/4/4/5,3.   

    Tweet winners continued during the weekdays and nights.
    6/2
    Aringarosy, $29.80, Hoosier
    Cinderella Guy, $19.60, Pocono
    Little Brown Fox, $10.20, Meadowlands
    6/3
    Flashbacks, $33.00, Pocono
    Man About Town, $25.80, Pocono
    Zorgwijk Kentaro, $32.80, Flamboro
    My Civil Dollar, $15.60, Pocono
     Powerful Mist, $7.60, Philadelphia
     Daring, $5.80, Flamboro
    Lima Sensation, $3.10, Flamboro
    6/5
    Enfilade, $14.80, Pocono
    Night Call, $12.00, Pocono
    Little Rooster, $6.60, Pocono
    Meadowbranch Jack, $4.80, Pocono
    Hawaii And Sun, $4.60, Pocono

    Connect to Twitter and follow Frank and Ray Cotolo for up-to-the-minute suggestions on wagers at many harness raceways. Then, wager from TwinSpires.

    Get onto our mailing list. Soon we will be offering ways to learn more about playing for profit. Enter your email for free by clicking here.

    Check our Balmoral weekend Pick-4-and-win picks at the USTA’s Strategic Wagering Program page and peruse other various topics on harness racing at my Hoof Beats blog titled Vast Performances.

    News And Notes

    Though the stakes are abundant at Mohawk these two weeks, there is still much doubt in the air about Ontario’s harness industry staying financial sound. It’s too lengthy to go into in this blog, so for an editorial update click here.

    In keeping with the Ontario theme, the same day that their closest neighboring racetrack, Kawartha Downs, announced they will cease racing next year, Rideau Carleton in Ottawa announced it will continue to offer harness racing. Track spokesman Alex Lawryk said, “The ownership is committed to horse racing. That story is available by clicking here.

    Since we last offered news and mentioned See You At Peelers, the mare has been retired.

    “She had charisma, like a great horse,” said trainer Jimmy Takter. “She knew she was a good horse and she carried herself with such pride when she went out on the track.”

    You At Peelers won the first 22 races of her career before being hampered by a virus that caused serious health issues last year. She is now a broodmare, her first assignment with the 2008 champ Somebeachsomewhere.

    Her health problems ensued at three and Takter was too concerned to continue to race her. He said, “I don’t want to jeopardize her. She’s been too good to me.”

    Takter’s wife, Christina, bred See You At Peelers. The Takters had experience breeding trotters but See You At Peelers was the first pacer they ever bred.

    As a three-year-old, See You At Peelers won her first nine races, including a world-record-equaling 1:49.2 triumph in the Empire Breeders Classic at Tioga. She also equaled the stakes record of 1:50 winning the Fan Hanover Stakes at Mohawk and became the first filly to beat the boys in the Art Rooney Pace at Yonkers Raceway.

    After taking time off to recover from her heart ailment, See You At Peelers began her four-year-old season by winning her first four races in the Blue Chip Matchmaker Series at Yonkers. She finished seventh in the final and competed for the last time on May 18 at Yonkers when she was seventh in the open handicap.

    “I thought I had her back when she raced those first four starts,” Takter said. “I guess she never fully recovered. She never became the same again.”

    Cartoon by Thom Pye

  • The three-year-old picture: I'll Have Another on top

    POSTED By Unknown
    I don't think anyone expected that anything would happen in today's Belmont Stakes to dethrone I'll Have Another from the top spot in the three-year-old division, and those expectations were met when Union Rags surged up the rail to defeat Paynter and win the Belmont Stakes in 2:30.42.

    I'll Have Another is in the driver's seat for the Eclipse Award as champion three-year-old male, but his car is parked and the emergency brake is stuck in the on position. And at this point, if any horse can dethrone him from the top spot, it's Union Rags who some would say was defeated not by superior competition in the Florida and Kentucky Derbys but troubled trips.

    If Union Rags runs the table, I'll Have Another will have the head to head nod with the Derby win (Union Rags was seventh), but Union Rags has a classic win to his credit now, too, and a win against elder males later in the year following a big summer could be enough to propel him past the three-time Grade 1 winner.

    Bodemeister could re-enter the picture with a big summer and fall as well, but working against him is that I'll Have Another beat him on the square in both the Derby & Preakness. A pie-in-the-sky Haskell-Travers-Goodwood-BC Classic grand slam would be hard to deny him the championship (and Horse of the Year), but any slip up without a Breeders' Cup win probably stymies his chances.

    If I were to make a line now on who the champion three-year-old male will be it'd look like this (10% takeout):

    I'll Have Another, evens
    Bodemeister, 5-to-2
    Union Rags, 7-to-2
    All others, 9-to-1

    Even if I'll Have Another stays ahead of the pack, it should be a fun summer. Zayat chasing a big win after finishing second in all three Triple Crown races plus a good group of sprinter and middle distance horses among this crop (Trinniberg, Hansen, etc.) will make for great theatre hopefully all year.

  • Belmont Stakes day 2012

    POSTED By Unknown
    There's no Triple Crown try, but the Belmont Stakes is still a $1-million race, and the Pick 6 and Pick 4 bets that end with the feature both offer guaranteed pools of $1-million, so there's still plenty of excitement to be had if you land on the right horses.
    Hopefully the numbers above correspond to the right horses. Nothing terribly clever except for Royal Currier in the True North who is 12-to-1 on the morning line, but I fear will be bet down more than that. Even my "B" selections should offer value, though, and it could be a rare "vertical" race for me in that I look at beating the favorites out of the top two spots.

    As for the Belmont Stakes, I thought Dullahan was the biggest threat to upset I'll Have Another's Triple Crown try, and now he's simply the biggest threat to win the race. The problem is that even though his chances of winning have increased, so too will the money bet on him, and if he's less than 2-to-1 then I'll have a hard time betting him to win. There are other opportunities, though. I'll be mostly singling him in the $1-million guaranteed pool Pick 4, and hooking him up with Atigun, Optimizer, and/or My Adonis in the exotics could pay well as well.

    But enough about that, who does Toga Tout like?!! (not updated post IHA's scratch but worth a watch for funzo)

     

  • On trying to look forward to the Belmont Stakes

    POSTED Jun 8, 2012 By Unknown

    Those associated with horse racing often talk about the highs and lows associated with investing yourself in the Sport of Kings.

    My investment is typically at the betting windows, and I’ve never felt this bad after losing a wager. When I lose a bet, it’s money and/or pride on the line, but when bad befalls my favorite sport and a horse I genuinely enjoyed watching run, the cut is deeper.

    How much flesh do racing fans have left, though? After serving as a punching bag for most of the spring, those bruises are still raw. Count me among those who doesn’t think a Triple Crown will solve the sport’s ills, but its pursuit is certainly some of the finest drama in all of sports, and something the masses still tune into.

    So rather than feeling like Caligula presiding over a great a party on Saturday, racing fans are left feeling more like Job—wondering why all these bad things happen to racing.

    And yet part of the beauty of horse racing is there is never too much time for self loathing. Horses don't know it's Christmas, and there is still a Belmont Stakes tomorrow along with 12 other races, including three other Grade 1 events, and Belmont Stakes or not, all the horses in the stable area still need to eat, train, and be cared for.

    I’ll Have Another’s scratch eliminates the chance of collective euphoria with 100,000 other people, but many will be thrilled with the outcome of tomorrow’s race. Someone’s dream will come true even after this nightmare.

  • No Triple Crown for I’ll Have Another

    POSTED By Derek Simon
    This isn’t the way it was supposed to end. Instead of winning — or losing — the Triple Crown on the racetrack, I’ll Have Another was defeated in the barn, when it was discovered that he had a tendon injury.

    The colt’s trainer, Doug O’ Neill, delivered the tragic news on the “Dan Patrick Show.”

    “I'll Have Another is officially out of the Belmont,” O'Neill said. “We scanned his left front leg and he's got the start of tendinitis going on in his front leg. He's not 100 percent and we ain't taking any chances.”

    Hinting that the horse may never race again, O’Neill added: “It's not tragic, but it's a huge disappointment. I'm just so bummed for the horse, obviously, and then for the whole team.”

    Racing fans seem to share O’Neill’s disappointment. In fact, based on what I read on various social media sites, the Mayans were wrong only about the date — officially, the world ended on June 8, 2012.

    It is to those I say… well, perhaps I can best express my sentiments with a song:


    Feel better? 

    Yeah, my kids don’t find it amusing when I perform that number for them either, especially since my singing voice sounds like a prepubescent bullfrog with a drinking problem. But, let’s be honest: If I’ll Have Another had run — and run badly — many of the same folks weeping and gnashing their teeth now would still be doing so… it’s just a matter of timing.

    Pat Forde of Yahoo Sports notes that “I’ll Have Another is only the third Triple Crown aspirant to miss the Belmont Stakes due to injury. The others are Bold Venture in 1936 and Burgoo King in 1932.” 

    But that doesn’t give the whole picture. Remember Majestic Prince?


    Like I’ll Have Another, Majestic Prince won both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness (in 1969) and, also like I’ll Have Another,  the son of Raise a Native was initially ruled out of the Belmont due to an undisclosed injury (believed to be a tendon problem).

    I say “initially” because public pressure, including a featured article in Sports Illustrated, prompted Majestic Prince’s owner Francis Murray Patrick McMahon to override his trainer Johnny Longden’s (yes, that Johnny Longden — the former champion rider) decision not to ship to New York.

    Majestic Prince finished second behind Arts and Letters in the Belmont Stakes. And despite besting that rival in two out of three head-to-head meetings in the Triple Crown series, Arts and Letters wound up being named the nation’s top three-year-old, as well as Horse of the Year in 1969.

    Meanwhile, Majestic Prince never raced again.

    The fact is none of us knows whether or not I’ll Have Another would have won the Belmont. Personally, I think a lot of longtime racing observers like myself — in our heart of hearts — doubted that Doug O’Neill’s sophomore star was in the same class as previous Triple Crown champions like Secretariat or Citation or Affirmed (personally, I wasn’t even sure I’ll Have Another was as good as some of the near-misses, like Spectacular Bid). But, now, fans of the horse can forever assert that he was... and that may be the silver lining in this dark cloud.

    Look, I’ll be frank: I thought very highly of Barbaro after his scintillating win in the 2006 Kentucky Derby, but I’m not so sure that even had he not been injured he would have beaten Bernardini in the Preakness Stakes. Bernardini was fast — his speed figures dwarfed those of Barbaro; yet, to those who loved him, Barbaro will forever be the greatest horse of his generation.

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    (Click on image to enlarge)
    To those who love him, I’ll Have Another will forever be the greatest of his generation as well. And that’s all that really matters.

  • Give and takeout

    POSTED Jun 7, 2012 By Unknown
    A very specific subset of TwinSpires.com users received good news on Tuesday.

    If you were one of 22,574 players who placed Pick 3, Pick 4, trifecta, or superfecta wagers on New York Racing Associations tracks from mid September 2010 through mid December 2011 and won any of those wagers, then you received a positive adjustment on your account to reflect the difference between payouts based on 26% and 25% takeout.

    If you didn't get an e-mail then that means you either A) didn't play the aforementioned wagers at the aforementioned tracks, or B) are not a TwinSpires.com member.

    If it's the former then I will remind you that NYRA has reduced its takeout on those wagers to 24%, which is a lot better deal than 26%. A wager in those pools that had paid $500 now pays $513. Not bad!

    If it's the latter, then what are you waiting for? TwinSpires.com boasts that it's Where Players Win, but more importantly it's where Players Get Treated Fairly as well.

    I've already spent my adjustment chasing the double carryover in the Pick 5 on Wednesday at Delaware Park. I was seven-deep in a 12-horse field for payouts ranging from $800-$15,000 and couldn't get the job done, but it was a nice thrill for a Wednesday afternoon 

    Of course many more thrills await this weekend. The TwinSpires.com Player's Pool is back in action, and hopefully the Belmont Pick 6 will carry again into Friday to give us a nice double carryover to chase with some of our $75,000. There are other promotions as well, including the chance to win a souvenir win ticket on I'll Have Another by wagering $50 on Belmont day, a chance for triple TSC Elite points for correctly identifying whether I'll Have Another will win, top handicapping information, and the best online tournament structure offering the most chances to qualify for top Vegas tournaments.

    TwinSpires.com offers great promotions, contests, and giveaways every day, and they're all on the web for people to see. TwinSpires.com offers great customer service every day, too, and while that's harder to illustrate on a daily basis, this week's positive adjustment for 22,574 shows it's just as important to us as fun contests and great handicapping info.

  • Glamour Pacers Locked And Loaded

    POSTED Jun 6, 2012 By Frank Cotolo
    Here we go, directly into the fiery arena of three-year-old colt pacers, with 19 ready to put themselves in the most expensive pacing race of the season right at the start of the season. On Saturday, June 9, two $50,000 eliminations will settle the field for the next week’s $1.5-million North America Cup. That same evening, the soph-filly pacers hold elims for the sister event, the Fan Hanover Stakes.  

    One of the colts’ elims has Sweet Lou in the limelight. The champion frosh pacer of 2011 has raced twice this season, laying down two sensationally fast wins. His foremost opponent, according to punters, A Rocknroll Dance, is in another elim as the two vie to rattle sulkies in their respective berths for the big dance.

    The six-digit Empire Breeders Championships for soph-colt-and-filly trotters, along with eliminations for the Goodtimes and Elegant Image are covered over the next two days in our exclusive blog, the Hambletonian Trail. Get to TwinSpires for wagering all of the great races leading to the Hambletonian and “Oaks” and read all the result stories at Hambletonian Society’s exclusive “trail” section.

    Bookmark that page, visit it regularly as eligible sophs race on week days and nights through the spring-summer schedule, aiming for the first Saturday in August.

    We take our weekly shot at Cal-Expo with TwinSpires-Cal-Expo’s exclusive no-takeout Pick 4. This week it is featured in races 10 through 13. A detailed report is included below.

    ‘Cup’ Candidates Convene


    At Mohawk on June 9, some of the season’s earliest glamour boy pacing stars fight for places one through five in two elims of the North America Cup Final. Her are the fields, followed by analyses.

    Elimination 1 - Race 5 - $50,000 purse

    1. Michaels Power - S. Zeron - C. Coleman
    2. Pet Rock - B. Sears - V. Morgan
    3. Secretsoftheknight - D. McNair - G. McNair
    4. Dapper Dude - J. Campbell - R. McIntosh
    5. Mel Mara - L. Ouellette - T. Alagna
    6. A Rocknroll Dance - Y. Gingras - J. Mulinix
    7. Time To Roll - A. Miller - J. Takter
    8. Allstar Legend - T. Tetrick - G. Teague
    9. State Treasurer - J. Jamieson - I. Moore
    10. Hillbilly Hanover - D. Miller - R. Norman

    Two standouts by virtue of their early performances should take all of the money in this elimination. Michael’s Power is on a roll at this track, having won his division of the Somebeachsomewhere among four wins in as many starts this year, including the Upper Canada Cup at Georgian Downs. The Casie Coleman student is reportedly in top shape, which he will need facing A Rocknroll Dance.

    A Rocknroll Dance just lost by a nose to in the June 2 New Jersey Sire Stakes (NJSS) at the Meadowlands. Time To Roll is perfect in two starts this year, after racing only a trio of miles at two. He is trained by Jimmy Takter.

    Pet Rock, who we gave you when he won the Art Rooney last week, has two wins in three starts this year for trainer Virgil Morgan, Jr. He would be the one to save some ground as the speedballs fire and be able to surprise them. Or, he may be getting better and adore the two turns, delivering a surprisingly strong mile.

    Elimination 2 - Race 8 - $50,000 purse

    1. Sweet Lou - D. Palone - R. Burke
    2. I Fought Dalaw - D. Miller - S. DePinto
    3. Simply Business - R. Pierce - J. Takter
    4. Hurrikane Kingcole - T. Tetrick - J. McDermott
    5. Major Bombay - J. Bartlett - T. Alagna
    6. Warrawee Needy - J. Jamieson - C. Jamieson
    7. Easy Again - M. Teague - G. Teague
    8. Bettors Edge - T. Tetrick - L. Toscano
    9. Thinking Out Loud - R. Waples - R. McIntosh

    Is it time yet to bet against Sweet Lou? For sure, the odds on the second and third choices in this field will not be seen again by the colts involved. There are three that deserve attention at the probable high odds Sweet Lou will afford them: I Fought Delaw, Simply Business (who we gave you as the 20-1 winner of last season’s Metro Pace) and Hurrikane Kingcole. The trio has every right to improve. The question is how much can they improve if Sweet Lou is wound up to cut impossible fractions?

    ‘Fan’ Figures


    The sister event for the “Cup” is the Fan Hanover and two elims will be on the June 9 card.

    Casie Coleman’s Sarandon Blue Chip takes the third start of her career to an elim after winning her first two efforts. She comes to Canada after winning the $150,000 NJSS final at the Meadowlands in 1:50.3. She broke her maiden a week earlier in a startling 1:51.2.

    Second to Sarandon Blue Chip in the Jersey race was Pirouette Hanover. We were hot for her in her frosh season and although she did well she seems to have grown quicker and bolder at three.

    In this elim, however, we have our eyes on Takter’s Romantic Moment, a filly that raises a notch in class with the retirement of See You At Peelers.

    American Jewel could do no wrong last year for Takter and was second in her 2012 debut. She lost only one race of nine and had a legitimate health excuse. In the second elim she will be up against last year’s Breeders Crown winner, Economy Terror.

    American Jewel has to deal with an outside post and Economy Terror is somewhat over rated in our books, so we are looking at Rockaround Sue for an upset. We wouldn’t be surprised if she is the third choice but even with that status she could offer some real win money. She has a great chance to go all the way for trainer Tony Alegna.

    Armbro Flight Ladies

    Friday, June 8 at Mohawk features two eliminations for the Armbro Flight, a trotting event for older mares.  

    The first division is the weakest, class wise. Jersey As and Beatgoeson Hanover will be the top betting interests. Sashay and Cleopatre Duharas, who were both Hambletonian Oaks hopefuls last year, may be able to recover from their last starts. Sashay needed her recent effort and performed well. She closed from fifth to finish fourth by a length. She may be able to get the best of the group.

    Cleopatre Duharas has always been an in-and-out horse. She races best in stakes. She’ll be aiming to make the final and as long as she stays flat she’ll be good, especially in the exotics.

    The second division is tough, with Jezzy and strong competitors. Cameron Chip and Oh Sweet Baby may be able to get the best of this bunch. Cameron Chip was a valiant second against similar in the Miss Versatility at Mohawk. She should get another good trip and come from off the pace to win.

    Oh Sweet Baby should be able to close well. With as much speed as there is in this race, a big late move could provide us with an upset. In any event, use her in the exotics.

    Cal Exotic

    Race 10 through Race 13 make up June 8’s no-takeout Pick 4. Let’s look at some of our contenders for a small ticket that could present a big return.

    Leg 1
    (6) Laredo’s Goose was second despite a rough outside trip that gave him the lead briefly. (7) Doit By The Clock won gallantly roving wide and still gained. He can come right back and start this ticket with a win.

    Leg 2
    (6) Pedal Pad appears the only one in this race with any reason to win off of recent starts. Last week he was 3-1, finishing third with a late rush that may have done the trick if started earlier in the mile.

    Leg 3
    (8) Schemes has been sitting on a win but for some reason cannot find the path at the right moment. He may get away from bettors tonight and do the job against this weak group that could offer a false favorite.

    Leg 4
    (4) Gee Up raced very well to get the show spot last out at 24-1 with a quick closing (5) Lil Hope, at 22-1, right there in fourth. They may team for a giant exacta and finish this ticket with big prices.

    Ray Cotolo contributed to this edition.

  • Will I’ll Have Another Win the Triple Crown?

    POSTED By Derek Simon

    I’ll Have Another’s Triple Crown quest has become downright Shakespearean: it is to be or not to be. Of course, the racing fan side of me — my left side as it turns out — desperately wants to see history made in Elmont, NY on Saturday. Yet, the value bettor side of me is screaming for an upset.

    Let’s be clear: I’ll Have Another will be an underlay this weekend. Given the inevitable souvenir ticket purchases — you can even buy them online — he almost has to be. Plus, as we’ve seen in years past, when a Triple Crown is on the line, rational betting often takes a leave of absence.

    There have been 30 horses that came to the Big Apple in search of eternal glory — almost all of them were bet like they’d already achieved it. The last winner of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness not to be favored in the Belmont Stakes was Assault in 1946… and he wound up winning the Triple Crown. Still, as the chart below reflects, a $2 win bet on all of the Triple Crown hopefuls in the Belmont has produced an ROI of -41.5 percent, including a -78.42 percent ROI over the past 50 years.

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    Will I’ll Have Another stop the bleeding? My heart says yes, my head says no.

    For a detailed analysis of the Test of Champions, including my suggested wagers, check out the video below (and remember to get your Ultimate Belmont Stakes Handicapping Package, which includes my special Belmont Betting Guide, at Brisnet.com):


    Free Pace Profile Report

    Click HERE for a free Pace Profile Report for races 6-11 from Belmont Park on Saturday, June 9, 2012.